January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[High Desert Mat?]

And one more thing, without a goa block that gives anchorage higher than average heights, we aren’t getting arctic air. It’s as simple as that. I believe those other teleconnections, nao etc, just can lock it in place longer. Alaska block with a southeast ridge please. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A consolation prize. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

8 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I’m taking a two day break from the models. Hopefully come Thursday things will have come full circle. 

I've told myself that a lot of times, only for me to look at the next run lol. See you again on Thursday but probably earlier!

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A consolation prize. 

(this isn't targeted at u lol. Idk why the GFS loves 40 degree snow so much lol)

Edited January 2 by SouthHillFrosty

[LowerGarfield]

So far a bitbetter for me than the last one but still marginal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

(this isn't targeted at u lol. Idk why the GFS loves 40 degree snow so much lol)

Oh yeah, that frame above is classic 1000' snow levels. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I've told myself that a lot of times, only for me to look at the next run lol. See you again on Thursday but probably earlier!

That's how I felt about 3 or 4 days ago. I'm glad I'm not the only one.

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GOA ridges merge better in the day 8-10 timeframe which gives a solid 3rd trough. 

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, that frame above is classic 1000' snow levels. 

Not bad for our members in the Silver Falls region. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

WINTER IS SAVED

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

WINTER IS SAVED

 That green spot over swamp checks out 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let's say a quick prayer for the lives lost during the great midwestern snow cyclone of 2024. 

[High Desert Mat?]

Still at 30.9. Just for you Sunriver. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's say a quick prayer for the lives lost during the great midwestern snow cyclone of 2024. 

Interesting!

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Interesting!

@Phishy Wx Might catch some real action in PA late this month. Has the feel of an Archambault event Jan 20-30 as NAO retrograde completes.

[Skagit Weather]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's say a quick prayer for the lives lost during the great midwestern snow cyclone of 2024. 

Chicago's lowest pressure ever recorded is 972mb from March of 1923, so I guess this is kind of feasible.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

@Phishy Wx Might catch some real action in PA late this month. Has the feel of an Archambault event Jan 20-30 as NAO retrograde completes.

ill be in West Chester, PA. 1/28 - 2/1

 

Bring on the 'noreasta snow hurricane

[SeanNyberg]

This thing is unraveling.

I know that model hype beyond a certain date is a fool's errand, but I remember a number of wild GFS 10+ day outliers that ended up pulling the Euro over as things got closer, giving us some big lowland snow events (and no, I don't have the dates memorized, I have a life, lol!) As silly as it is to bet the farm on some extreme 10+ day forecast, you would also be pretty foolish to ignore it.

But it appears the setup that the GFS somehow strung together a few days ago isn't holding up and we are left with fringe stuff. And the problem with fringe stuff right now is that we're coming off of the warmest December in history, so fringe stuff is really just cool(ish) rain. Fringe can be fun if we're coming off a month of near-freezing temps, but we need something substantial to punch through and it's just not showing anymore.

Still some hope. But it really looks fleeting.

But expectations should've been set appropriately. Sometimes we look so hard to find exceptions to the "warm and dry" El Nino rule that we forget that the definition of an exception is that it is rare and that the rule is the rule for a reason.

Anything is still possible. But when the GFS starts moderating itself then it is time to pull back and hope for a miracle later in the month.

The real question now is how much snow will the mountains get. Not just for the ski resorts, but for our water supply and for wildfire danger this summer. Sadly the biggest victim of this winter might just be this summer. Which just adds insult to injury.

I am still holding out some hope and I haven't abandoned the models, but I have downshifted from optimistic to acceptance, but open to surprise. ;) 

[the_convergence_zone]

28 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Interesting!

Three “panhandle hook” storms in a row! 
 

The last one I experienced was December 2009 in Madison WI. Truly an epic storm. I think it was in the 15 inch range. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

This thing is unraveling.

I know that model hype beyond a certain date is a fool's errand, but I remember a number of wild GFS 10+ day outliers that ended up pulling the Euro over as things got closer, giving us some big lowland snow events (and no, I don't have the dates memorized, I have a life, lol!) As silly as it is to bet the farm on some extreme 10+ day forecast, you would also be pretty foolish to ignore it.

But it appears the setup that the GFS somehow strung together a few days ago isn't holding up and we are left with fringe stuff. And the problem with fringe stuff right now is that we're coming off of the warmest December in history, so fringe stuff is really just cool(ish) rain. Fringe can be fun if we're coming off a month of near-freezing temps, but we need something substantial to punch through and it's just not showing anymore.

Still some hope. But it really looks fleeting.

But expectations should've been set appropriately. Sometimes we look so hard to find exceptions to the "warm and dry" El Nino rule that we forget that the definition of an exception is that it is rare and that the rule is the rule for a reason.

Anything is still possible. But when the GFS starts moderating itself then it is time to pull back and hope for a miracle later in the month.

The real question now is how much snow will the mountains get. Not just for the ski resorts, but for our water supply and for wildfire danger this summer. Sadly the biggest victim of this winter might just be this summer. Which just adds insult to injury.

I am still holding out some hope and I haven't abandoned the models, but I have downshifted from optimistic to acceptance, but open to surprise.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd say some minor ensemble improvements in that day 10-12 window. 

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Story of my life.

My fiancé is a former high school English teacher and he often reminds me that "brevity is the soul of wit." And I remind him that I am an attorney and the fact that I bill by the hour means that my inability to be brief allows him to be a "former high school teacher" rather than still having to work.

LOL

[westcoastexpat]

18Z GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well then... Looks like we are seeing big time ensemble improvement in the long range. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well then... Looks like we are seeing big time ensemble improvement in the long range. 

mind sharing with the class? my untrained eye cannot discern this "big time" improvement

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well then... Looks like we are seeing big time GEFS improvement in the long range. 

Fixed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

mind sharing with the class? my untrained eye cannot discern this "big time" improvement

Absolutely!

18z

[Phil]

Wouldn’t consider that to be “big time” improvement but blocking is healthier on the 18z GEFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly this is absolutely brutal. Best pattern of the winter and PDX can't even pull off a freeze. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Time to move to Bozeman

Lots of places get a lot of snow without moving that far away.  Though Montana is pretty great.  And if you want the extreme cold, Bozeman would be hard to beat.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Wouldn’t consider that to be “big time” improvement but blocking is healthier on the 18z GEFS.

In all fairness I may have over sold it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say decent improvement by hour 324... But then again that's hour 324. 

[Phishy Wx]

Rounds of snow are in store late this week & early next week 
with a potential cooling trend ***

Round 1: Friday morning 

Will be light and more of a wintry mix 
around the Friday morning commute time. This first wave will be 
working with limited moisture and a fast passage. Spokane has a 30% 
chance of 1 inch of snow Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. 
Cda and Sandpoint has a 60% chance of an inch. Stevens Pass has a 
70%/35% chance of 3/6 inches respectively.

Round 2: Friday evening through Sunday morning

Round 2 has greater potential for significant snowfall in the Inland 
Northwest. A deep trough will develop off the BC coast and move SE 
into the region Saturday. Deep isentropic ascent and moist profiles 
will lead to a period of light to moderate snow in the lowlands. 
Cold air aloft should support snow above 1000-1500 feet. Expecting 
around an inch for the valleys of central WA, 2 to 6 inches for the 
Eastern third of WA, and 3 to 8 inches for the Idaho Panhandle. 
Stevens pass may see up to 2 feet of snow with a heavy burst 
expected Friday evening. Snowfall rates will exceed an inch per hour 
and may approach 2 inches per hour during the heavy burst. Lookout 
Pass will see up to a foot of snow. Some solutions form a surface 
low in the lee of the Cascades which may usher in a heavy burst of 
snow Saturday afternoon but confidence is low at this stage.

Round 3: Next week 

Round 3 has quite a bit of spatiotemporal variability in the 500 mb 
height fields but there is high confidence of another trough 
passage. Significant snowfall is on the table again next week. Stay 
tuned. Cold temperatures? Maybe (10-30% chance of low temperatures 
below 10 degrees Monday morning and more chances later in the week). 
Snowpack and winds will play a significant role! db 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Lots of places get a lot of snow without moving that far away.  Though Montana is pretty great.  And if you want the extreme cold, Bozeman would be hard to beat.  

Republic Wa has a colder January average than Bozeman. Republic 29/15 Bozeman 35/15. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would say decent improvement by hour 324... But then again that's hour 324. 

It's just your jive talkin'
You're telling me lies, yeah
Jive talkin'
You wear a disguise
Jive talkin'
So misunderstood, yeah
Jive talkin'

[RentonHill]

looks pretty crashy at the end!! this next 10 days is just the warning shot. 

 

[SnowWillarrive]

26 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Lots of places get a lot of snow without moving that far away.  Though Montana is pretty great.  And if you want the extreme cold, Bozeman would be hard to beat.  

Yea I know. I mainly like Bozeman for the high quality amenities not available in many smaller towns. I briefly looked at brand new construction in Leavenworth. Nice spot but a bit small for me. 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

ill be in West Chester, PA. 1/28 - 2/1

 

Bring on the 'noreasta snow hurricane

lol. The city and valley will eat your snow.

[iFred]

Well it has been ten years with this place. What better way to sunset the forum and migrate folks to Phil’s YouTube comments than a model melt down that turns into a HECS.

Its been fun folks, but its time to do the right thing.