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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)


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1 minute ago, Phil said:

If the 00z EPS makes a significant move (beyond the swath of the previous 2-3 runs) then I’ll definitely be interested.

It’s not impossible the 00z GFS is right. ⛄️ 

Truth.  But it is interesting how both the GDPS and the GFS suddenly went arctic after being rather pedestrian for several runs.  

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Won’t lie, this run is a pants tent. Beautiful to look at.

But not relationship material without Dr. No’s approval.

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Truth.  But it is interesting how both the GDPS and the GFS suddenly went arctic after being rather pedestrian for several runs.  

It’s possible new ingested data will produce a massive shift across guidance.

It’s also possible it’s simply noise/windshield wiper vacillation in solutions due to inflection points of uncertainty (this has been the case thus far).

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s possible new ingested data will produce a massive shift across guidance.

It’s also possible it’s simply noise/windshield wiper vacillation in solutions due to inflection points of uncertainty (this has been the case thus far).

"It’s also possible it’s simply noise/windshield wiper vacillation in solutions due to inflection points of uncertainty (this has been the case thus far)."

 

WTF?

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

HOLY F U C K

IMG_8208.png

IMG_8209.png

Omg Wtf 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Now this is more like it!

We have to lock this one in.  One very interesting thing about this run is it was almost identical to the 6z a week out, whereas the 12z and 18z were way different.  Obviously this works out even better than the 6z did.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Poulsbo Snowman said:

"It’s also possible it’s simply noise/windshield wiper vacillation in solutions due to inflection points of uncertainty (this has been the case thus far)."

 

WTF?

When there’s a threshold in the pattern progression where tiny changes lead to a huge divergence in outcomes, guidance can waffle back/forth between outcomes.

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Just now, Phil said:

When there’s a threshold in the pattern progression where tiny changes lead to a huge divergence in outcomes, guidance can waffle back/forth between outcomes.

So basically a day ending in Y?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

When there’s a threshold in the pattern progression where tiny changes lead to a huge divergence in outcomes, guidance can waffle back/forth between outcomes.

LOL.  I got that in the first instance.  I just had to bang my head for a minute while I considered what you were saying,

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

HOLY F U C K

IMG_8208.png

IMG_8209.png

the region wide snow storm we've all been stroking to in our dreams.  how's the wind? could it be the elusive region wide blizzard?

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Just now, Poulsbo Snowman said:

LOL.  I got that in the first instance.  I just had to bang my head for a minute while I considered what you were saying,

I call it the windshield wiper effect since it’s easier to say and describes the back/forth variability well, but in trying to explain it I actually made it worse. :lol: 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I would pay to see this verify.

1705255200-yLvrAKmA0XU.png

ID PAY ATLEAST 500 EFFIN DOLLARS FOR THIS. LETS GOOOO. ITS A LOCK 🔐!

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Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88"

Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"!

23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!!

 

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This reminds me of December 2021. 

A9B55F6B-7FF9-4652-9E84-0EDC51DB08F2.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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