January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The end of the 1998 blast was a huge bummer for folks in the mid-valley. We mixed out with pretty much nothing but a skiff of snow on the 24th. To have that kind of airmass go out with such a whimper was a pretty tough pill to swallow. Especially after throwing up a goose egg in January 1998. I know TWL talks about it a lot, but between 1/27/96 and 12/29/03 there were essentially no significant snow events in most of the Willamette Valley. The only exception being the one in December 2000 that was pretty good west of I-5.

There was the palpable feeling in a lot of the region that significant snow was a thing of the past by 2003. Those storms that following winter were an oasis. 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can't remember how many years you were up there, I seem to recall you were up there during 2016-17, were you up there in 18-19? 

We moved down in Feb 19.

 

January 1-11-17 was the best stretch of winter weather.  But honestly from moving up there from the valley, every winter was epic. I roughly averaged the winters I was there and it was close to 30 inches per year.

[MossMan]

Lots of posts now on the local FB groups about what could be coming, this person says it’s going to be a non event now, Weather.com told him so. 

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I want both a massive snowstorm and windstorm at the same time! 

The beautiful Peace Garden state of North Dakota is your place!

40 foot drifts with this guy in 1966!

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Lots of posts now on the local FB groups about what could be coming, this person says it’s going to be a non event now, Weather.com told him so. 

lol I love it when people who have absolutely no idea about forecasting models or general weather knowledge try and act smart about it.

[CloudJunkie]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I want both a massive snowstorm and windstorm at the same time! 

Windstorms are fun until you try to go hiking in the spring and there are 500 logs across the trail!

[Requiem]

I still don't think any storm was as surreal to track in recent memory as this past February. Models had all but pulled back totals into a virtual non event for most areas-- until one single model suite came out with the crazy totals that we ended up actually receiving in the metro area. It was like a switch had flipped. At least with January 2017 and February 2014 there was some definite confidence we would get *some* meaningful snow.

[Slushy Inch]

Early snow possible for me. Looks like pscz. -5 c 850s borderline. Need heavy precip. 18z euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy said:

We moved down in Feb 19.

 

January 1-11-17 was the best stretch of winter weather.  But honestly from moving up there from the valley, every winter was epic. I roughly averaged the winters I was there and it was close to 30 inches per year.

I would guess that area gets a bit more snow than I do, just given it is further north and seems to have some kind of gorge influence. In the 12 winters I have been here, our average is 38.8", but that includes the past two winters which were pretty big time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just compared the spaghetti charts of the 12 and 18z GEFS. Slight improvement on the 18z, nothing massive, but definitely fewer warm members and a much bigger cluster around -10C at SLE. Mean drops to -7.1C which is 1C colder than the 12z. Looking at the 500mb map, the long range is looking better too. 

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The end of the 1998 blast was a huge bummer for folks in the mid-valley. We mixed out with pretty much nothing but a skiff of snow on the 24th. To have that kind of airmass go out with such a whimper was a pretty tough pill to swallow. Especially after throwing up a goose egg in January 1998. I know TWL talks about it a lot, but between 1/27/96 and 12/29/03 there were essentially no significant snow events in most of the Willamette Valley. The only exception being the one in December 2000 that was pretty good west of I-5.

Yep. I was terrible luck during my brief two years in the valley...nothing notable for Silverton, completely missed out on the Jan 1998 snow and Dec 1998 smaller snow that areas further north saw.

I think the big "event" while I was there was an inch or so the town got in Feb 1999.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Much better for snow in western Oregon.

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just compared the spaghetti charts of the 12 and 18z GEFS. Slight improvement on the 18z, nothing massive, but definitely fewer warm members and a much bigger cluster around -10C at SLE. Mean drops to -7.1C which is 1C colder than the 12z. Looking at the 500mb map, the long range is looking better too. 

For Portland at hour 192, 12/30 are -9.9c or lower. Only 4/30 on the 12z were that cold at the same time.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Speaking of December 2008, I don't think this website has archives going back that far.  BUT the KPTV blog that Mark Nelsen runs does.  You can go back and see the evolution of how it happened through his posts, and how bleak things looked. But before I provide the links I found a picture from then of a get together that he had, and at least 2 of our current members are in it.  Tyler Mode and Rob (Gradient Keeper).

Here is the end of November 2008, not looking good, though Deweydog mentioned that it was a classic retrograde situation, and his last post showed a ridge over us

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2008/11/

This is December, and it starts off at the end, so you'll have to scroll down a ways to get to the beginning of the month and then work your way back.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2008/12/

Edited January 5 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[LowerGarfield]

I'm on paid leave now. Taking a moment for WA state generous worker protection laws vs Idaho. It's my consolation for not moving to Grangeville (Camas Prarie  at 3,400 ft) but when I'm working, I don't get paid or have to use vacation time if I lose power. I WFH taking phone calls and chats so I don't like power outages. Fortunately, I live in a county with a lot of wind so the infrastructure here is better than say Camano Island.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Yep. I was terrible luck during my brief two years in the valley...nothing notable for Silverton, completely missed out on the Jan 1998 snow and Dec 1998 smaller snow that areas further north saw.

I think the big "event" while I was there was an inch or so the town got in Feb 1999.

I have literally no memory of that event, which I either forgot (unlikely), or was so marginal my location 2 miles NW of town did not even see accumulating snow (more likely). 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

I'm on paid leave now. Taking a moment for WA state generous worker protection laws vs Idaho. It's my consolation for not moving to Grangeville (Camas Prarie  at 3,400 ft) but when I'm working, I don't get paid or have to use vacation time if I lose power. I WFH taking phone calls and chats so I don't like power outages. Fortunately, I live in a county with a lot of wind so the infrastructure here is better than say Camano Island.

Oregon's paid leave law went into effect a year AFTER we had what will PROBABLY be our last kid. 

[Cold Snap]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Lots of posts now on the local FB groups about what could be coming, this person says it’s going to be a non event now, Weather.com told him so. 

Weather.com looks great IMBY! Two subfreezing highs.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon's paid leave law went into effect a year AFTER we had what will PROBABLY be our last kid. 

If they are under 12 months, you might still get a few weeks.

[Cloud]

5 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

498DM almost into skagit county on this run lol. I don’t really think it’ll verify this cold but this is still a very good sign that later next week could be fun. 

Many doubted the June 2021 heatwave. It happened. If this verifies, you can consider it a payback for that one. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

If they are under 12 months, you might still get a few weeks.

He was actually about 18 months at the time. 

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Speaking of December 2008, I don't think this website has archives going back that far.  BUT the KPTV blog that Mark Nelsen runs does.  You can go back and see the evolution of how it happened through his posts, and how bleak things looked. But before I provide the links I found a picture from then of a get together that he had, and at least 2 of our current members are in it.  Tyler Mode and Rob (Gradient Keeper).

Here is the end of November 2008, not looking good, though Deweydog mentioned that it was a classic retrograde situation, and his last post showed a ridge over us

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2008/11/

This is December, and it starts off at the end, so you'll have to scroll down a ways to get to the beginning of the month and then work your way back.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2008/12/

Some of the posts are missing, the rest can be found here:

https://web.archive.org/web/20090215211818/http://stormteam12.typepad.com:80/stormteam12/2008/12/index.html

https://web.archive.org/web/20081216232702/http://stormteam12.typepad.com:80/stormteam12/2008/12/index.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was going to say, if the EURO was showing those kinds of temps on the door step of an event, I don't think we would believe it. I was incredulous that June 2021 would happen, until it did. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

51 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I guess we should all probably wish upon a starr.

Hardy Harr Harr!!

[RentonHill]

End of 18z Euro - 4 run trend. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have literally no memory of that event, which I either forgot (unlikely), or was so marginal my location 2 miles NW of town did not even see accumulating snow (more likely). 

There was a cold trough from 2/8-2/10 with highs around 40 and lows around freezing, with precip each day. That must have been it.

I'm sure it melted by afternoon. Was quite wet.

[Cold Snap]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just compared the spaghetti charts of the 12 and 18z GEFS. Slight improvement on the 18z, nothing massive, but definitely fewer warm members and a much bigger cluster around -10C at SLE. Mean drops to -7.1C which is 1C colder than the 12z. Looking at the 500mb map, the long range is looking better too. 

850s look pretty decent in Western Canada towards the end. Though not as good as 12z but better than 06z.

[LowerGarfield]

Could someone repost today's OR/WA statewide EURO snow totals map? I was out and missed and may have missed it.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Many doubted the June 2021 heatwave. It happened. If this verifies, you can consider it a payback for that one. 

 

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was going to say, if the EURO was showing those kinds of temps on the door step of an event, I don't think we would believe it. I was incredulous that June 2021 would happen, until it did. 

In a rapidly warming world…an equivalent event to June 2021 has like a 0.5% or less chance of happening IMO. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Could someone repost today's OR/WA statewide EURO snow totals map? I was out and missed and may have missed it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

There was a cold trough from 2/8-2/10 with highs around 40 and lows around freezing, with precip each day. That must have been it.

I'm sure it melted by afternoon. Was quite wet.

I'm pretty sure I remember the day. It snowed pretty hard at our place, but just covered the ground, didn't accumulate to much more than slush. If you were in town you probably had heavier precip rates being up against the hills. I think you once said you lived on Forest Ridge above the reservoir, which is around 700' or so. 

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hardy Harr Harr!!

Lippy the Lion and…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

End of 18z Euro - 4 run trend. 

Do I like this or hate it? 

 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 

In a rapidly warming world…an equivalent event to June 2021 has like a 0.5% or less chance of happening IMO. 

And where do find this 0.5% or less from? 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Do I like this or hate it? 

 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Do I like this or hate it? 

 

Well, are you left Twix or right Twix kind of guy? 

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

lol I love it when people who have absolutely no idea about forecasting models or general weather knowledge try and act smart about it.

then when the forecast ends up wrong.  "these guys suck" "never right" "weatherman is the only job you can be wrong 90% of the time and still have a job". those are always the best comments

[snow_wizard]

Nice turn of events today.  Everything seems to be on board for a pretty big event.  The 12z Graph Cast had it's coldest run by far.  How about that 12z ECMWF?

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

And where do find this 0.5% or less from? 

Global warming…the fact that we haven’t had a legit arctic outbreak (depending on what metric you use) since 1998 and all we do is seem to set heat records is what makes me think that. I don’t think any of us will see something on par with 1950 in our lifetimes…but I could see something like June 2021 potentially happening again. 

[Phishy Wx]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon's paid leave law went into effect a year AFTER we had what will PROBABLY be our last kid. 

not according to last night,  lol