January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Getting pretty late for that now.

We’re definitely not a lock yet despite how awesome the models have been looking. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

What hour? Hour 147 is further east.  Arctic air to the north, yes, and colder than last nights.  But it looks like it's not quite as good asn12z

The 12z was nothing that special either compared to the other models.  Very progressive with the block.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Um no he definitely posted the 00z run, lol

Yep... I saw 120 hours and assumed it was the 18Z run because that is where the 18Z and 06Z runs end.   My bad.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Getting pretty late for that now.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Different evolution though.   It only goes out to 180 hours (12Z and 00Z runs).

Icon at 180 looks almost exactly like the 12z GFS at hour 192

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re definitely not a lock yet despite how awesome the models have been looking. 

We are a lock for at least some below normal temps.  I would put money on that.

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

2008 had temps below 5 in Bellingham where I lived at the time, and I think Randy may have gotten below zero.

We were quite cold in Leavenworth last December, some places in town got to about -10.  Of course we are colder here anyway, and I have seen temps go to around 0 or maybe -1 or -2, but locals who have been here longer than me said it was the coldest temps in a really long time.

There have been 3 events this century with relatively widespread single digits in the North Sound and at least another 3-5 that had isolated single digits.

December 2008 was the coldest with a temperature of 2F where I am, less than a mile from the ocean. December 2021 and December 2022 also both featured single digits at my place with a 6.6F and a 5.2F respectively.

February 2011 was close with a temperature of 10.9F here and a number of single digits in Whatcom/Skagit/Snohomish including 6F a couple miles from me, as was February 2019 with Arlington dropping to 3F on a number of days and a low of 11.9F here. Otherwise I think November 2010 and  December 2013 also featured some near single digits, although not at my location.

Interestingly, if we look back in the historical record at some of the longest running stations up here, it's been a long time since they have seen any true temperatures near record all-time lows. Sedro-Woolley has records dating back until 1896 and of its 50 coldest days on record, not a single one has occurred in the last 50 years. December 2021 is the first event on there in the last half century with a low of 7F. The best Clearbrook can do from this century, with records dating back to 1903, is 26th coldest with 4F from 2021. There are a number of days from 1985, 1986, and 1989 in those top 25 coldest temperatures though.

 

[SpaceRace22]

Screw the ICON. All my homies hate the ICON.

[BLI snowman]

I'm not sure if I've ever seen the ICON forecast snow here.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Different evolution though.   It only goes out to 180 hours (12Z and 00Z runs).

AK ridge not near as strong

[TT-SEA]

This has to be the fastest increase in pages all time.   I step away for 10 minutes and I am behind 5 pages!   The only people who see what you post are the people hitting refresh at that moment.   In 20 minutes posts are buried so far back no one else sees it. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Disappointed by the icon but maybe the Spiro Agnew model will come through. 

The 12z was nothing special either.  Still good though on both runs.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We are a lock for at least some below normal temps.  I would put money on that.

I agree, odds are definitely higher than 24 hours ago. Just one day at a time for the 144-168 hours! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

AK ridge not near as strong

ICON is known for massive flips even in the short range.   Its almost meaningless... I think its only really used when its colder. 

[snow_wizard]

I think people are comparing the ICON to the other (way better) model run today.  It has not looked as good as the others on any run.  It's not like it's a pullback.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I agree, odds are definitely higher than 24 hours ago. Just one day at a time for the 144-168 hours! 

I always use 7 days out as the point models start locking in.    The 12Z ECMWF made me really believe this is happening.  

[Requiem]

Models will waffle, models will change. It just is what it is. We have consistency in the ensembles, which is always nice. That being said, the ICON is just a bad model for this region and I don't think I've ever seen it be right for even run of the mill events within 96 hours, let alone such a tenuous setup with huge meteorological ramifications. Any "it's over" posts should unequivocally not be because of the ICON.

[SpaceRace22]

The last 5 pages are the most energy this forum has ever invested into the ICON before, lol

[Kolk1604]

12z JMA was a poop too. 

Seriously who pays for these? Is it worth the money when there this wrong? 

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Requiem said:

Models will waffle, models will change. It just is what it is. We have consistency in the ensembles, which is always nice. That being said, the ICON is just a bad model for this region and I don't think I've ever seen it be right for even run of the mill events within 96 hours, let alone such a tenuous setup with huge meteorological ramifications. Any "it's over" posts should unequivocally not be because of the ICON.

Totally agreed.  It's not nearly as strong with the ridge bridge as the other models.  That is the key to this thing.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON is known for massive flips even in the short range.   Its almost meaningless... I think its only really used when its colder. 

I'm barely considering it, just commenting on its current state

[Kolk1604]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

The last 5 pages are the most energy this forum has ever invested into the ICON before, lol

We do this everytime when there's the potential for something big; we start looking at everything 

ICON,NAM,JMA, HRRR.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The last 5 pages are the most energy this forum has ever invested into the ICON before, lol

Yeah...people are just wired right now.  It will be long forgotten in an hour.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

The last 5 pages are the most energy this forum has ever invested into the ICON before, lol

And I think it was last December the ICON limped along being totally different and then completely flipped to the cold solution at 3 days out.   It can have crazy swings almost right up to an event.  

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

12z JMA was a poop too. 

Seriously who pays for these? Is it worth the money when there this wrong? 

 

Climatology would imply an east slide off.  not that I agree in this situation but that evolution is entirely possible, that said it is the JMA so yea, no sweat (yet)

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

12z JMA was a poop too. 

Seriously who pays for these? Is it worth the money when there this wrong? 

 

They are both publicly funded models by their local meteorological agencies. The ICON is a project of the German national weather service and the JMA is the Japanese national model. Both will likely be funded indefinitely in order to allow those individual meteorological agencies to have "their own" model which they have direct control of.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...people are just wired right now.  It will be long forgotten in an hour.

So true... it was just the model happening right now.  No one will remember any of it after the GFS and ECMWF.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

12z JMA was a poop too. 

Seriously who pays for these? Is it worth the money when there this wrong? 

 

We are not sure this is wrong

[snow_wizard]

GFS looks more like the 18z at day 4 than the 12z.  Good so far.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting that I don't hear the 500hPa temps mentioned.  Good tweet from Maue.  The 12Z Euro was Siberian air, true polar vortex

Edited January 5 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We are not sure this is wrong

If that verifies than I quit lol 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Climatology would imply an east slide off.  not that I agree in this situation but that evolution is entirely possible, that said it is the JMA so yea, no sweat (yet)

Given the connection of the NAO and PNA blocks shown on other models a dig back is the most likely outcome.

[SpaceRace22]

Around 100 hours, the block on the 00z GFS is a hair stronger than the block on the 12z Euro and a hair more amplified than the 18z GFS. Yummy.

[High Desert Mat?]

Well so far it’s to hour 114 and it’s identical to the 18z. Please stay consistent. 

[Kolk1604]

I think so far the 12z GEM is better 

[T-Town]

26 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

So many comments people missed my connection from Ozzy to Seattle seeing a blizzard. 

First concert, 16 years old, Van Halen touring on their first album, opening for Black Sabbath. Tenuous weather tie but awesome memory. 

[snow_wizard]

I think this is going to work.

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I always use 7 days out as the point models start locking in.    The 12Z ECMWF made me really believe this is happening.  

7 days is a long time. I’d bet the general pattern is probably not going to deviate far at this point…but I think January 2020 collapsed like 48-72 hours out…atleast for people south of Everett. 

[Doinko]

 

[Kolk1604]

Ohhhhhhhhhhh