January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Deweydog]

Hope everyone got there Pepto pink piece of capitalist heaven…

https://www.today.com/today/amp/rcna132157

[Timmy]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The ECMWF has dropped the puck.

I actually had to google hockey slang to make sure that statement wasn’t a bad thing.  Just say “tip off” or “kick off” next time. This isn’t Canada. Yet…

[uwgraduate2021]

2 minutes ago, RayRay said:

What are all the hot dog emoji reactions… I am confused

I’m not sure what they are referring to but I have the sudden urge to go to Costco… 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, uwgraduate2021 said:

I’m not sure what they are referring to but I have the sudden urge to go to Costco… 

Costco pizza is better then the hotdogs. Both are great though 

[TacomaWx]

NEW MIKE SNYDER VIDEO  

[sherwoodor]

is today the day the rug starts slipping?

I dont have the records/data many of you do so I've got a few questions:

1. it seems "historically" that there is always a model or two suggesting the 28* snow outcome, one or two suggesting the 39* rain outcome and one or two saying its a coin flip. with the models in such close agreement, do we have any examples of this type of consistency/close agreement only to fall apart as we get closer?

2. honest answers only please: if this were setting up a 2-3 day, mid 20's "arctic blast" with 6" of snow I'd be more of a believer, however some of these numbers are just ludacris. I'm having a very hard time believing this could come to fruition. other than the excitement as the possibility, what do folks TRULY feel is the most likely outcome? Seems to me single digits to negatives in the PDX metro with feet of snow is the equivalent crazy train to having the models suggest we're going to have a tropical cyclone come ashore and bring a foot of rain in May type craziness. 

 

I dont know what to think... 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Timmy said:

I actually had to google hockey slang to make sure that statement wasn’t a bad thing.  Just say “tip off” or “kick off” next time. This isn’t Canada. Yet…

Canada hasn’t lifted the Stanley Cup (non-Starbucks version) in over 30 years. And if they keep this crap up it won’t for another 30. 

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, RayRay said:

What are all the hot dog emoji reactions… I am confused

Weather weenie.

As for what actually constitutes a post deserving of a "weather weenie" reaction? 

Sometimes you know it when you see it.

Other times...I have no idea. 

[uwgraduate2021]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Costco pizza is better then the hotdogs. Both are great though 

The one that got away will always be the polish dogs, and the combo pizza too!

[Cloud]

The CMC is wanting to slide this thing east of the Rockies so bad. And quite frankly, that is not an unrealistic solution at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My boss just sent out a “get ready for snow” email. It’s over.

[TacomaWx]

Mike seems onboard to me

[T-Town]

Seems like an appropriate model riding song. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, sherwoodor said:

is today the day the rug starts slipping?

I dont have the records/data many of you do so I've got a few questions:

1. it seems "historically" that there is always a model or two suggesting the 28* snow outcome, one or two suggesting the 39* rain outcome and one or two saying its a coin flip. with the models in such close agreement, do we have any examples of this type of consistency/close agreement only to fall apart as we get closer?

2. honest answers only please: if this were setting up a 2-3 day, mid 20's "arctic blast" with 6" of snow I'd be more of a believer, however some of these numbers are just ludacris. I'm having a very hard time believing this could come to fruition. other than the excitement as the possibility, what do folks TRULY feel is the most likely outcome? Seems to me single digits to negatives in the PDX metro with feet of snow is the equivalent crazy train to having the models suggest we're going to have a tropical cyclone come ashore and bring a foot of rain in May type craziness. 

 

I dont know what to think... 

The reality is no one knows. The models have far more of an ability to unpack realtime data and extrapolate than all the Phil’s of the world put together. Clearly the players are on the field which could lead to what is our traditional Arctic pattern, but alignment is still up in the air. That coupled with the inherent fragility of these setups which can be magnified quite rapidly downstream means we all just have to sweat it out together six hours at a time. Just gotta have fun with it.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My boss just sent out a “get ready for snow” email. It’s over.

My boss sent me a "stop being sick" email. I'll probably be back at work tommorow in time for the big snowstorm and the increased visitation that mt bachelor gets on the weekends.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have so much trauma from January that I’m needing a safe space for this EURO run. Can y’all be my safe space. Plz 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

33 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Today's 12z GFS ENS at day 7 vs yesterday's 12z. Significantly colder.

Good to see!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro to hour 72! Thoughts?! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The ECMWF has dropped the puck.

Let’s go ! Bring us all lots of COLD and SNOW!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro to hour 72! Thoughts?! 

Looks basically unchanged. Inflection point at hour 144ish

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The reality is no one knows. The models have far more of an ability to unpack realtime data and extrapolate than all the Phil’s of the world put together. Clearly the players are on the field which could lead to what is our traditional Arctic pattern, but alignment is still up in the air. That coupled with the inherent fragility of these setups which can be magnified quite rapidly downstream means we all just have to sweat it out together six hours at a time. Just gotta have fun with it.

Look at you. I feel proud right now  

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro to hour 72! Thoughts?! 

Looks BREEZY for Tuesday morning.

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have so much trauma from January that I’m needing a safe space for this EURO run. Can y’all be my safe space. Plz 

You know better than to believe this place could be your safe space in these situations.

[OysterPrintout]

Hour 90 tiny bit slower than GFS but looking more GFS than GEM like but mostly looking like 00zrun

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m so scared! 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Such a nail biter watching the ECMWF run

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Similar at hr 96

[Deweydog]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m so scared! 

We’re all wrapping you in a blanket of warm, safe SW’erly flow, Andrew! 

[SnowySeeker50]

The wait for each day to be released on the run is excruciating

[MossMan]

The Fuzz! (For everyone new here it’s the GFS PNA pasta noodle forecast) 

[jakerepp]

Just now, MossMan said:

The Fuzz! (For everyone new here it’s the GFS PNA pasta noodle forecast) 

Just about as beautiful as ever

[iFred]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

The Fuzz! (For everyone new here it’s the GFS PNA pasta noodle forecast) 

I appreciate the growing number of noodles trending down.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Not sure I like the changes around day 5

[jakerepp]

Just for funsies, high so far today 56, low 37

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Similar at hr 96

Block is slightly stronger and trough moving down the coast a bit faster than yesterday's 12z.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Not sure I like the changes around day 5

You mean the lack of changes?

[MossMan]

Michael Snyder says it’s time to get excited!! 

[GobBluth]

It's going to move towards the gem progressive solution.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Not sure I like the changes around day 5

Omg no!!!!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Block is slightly stronger and trough moving down the coast a bit faster than yesterday's 12z.

Agreed. Marginal differences at this point tho