January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z GraphCast/Google Deepmind is not backing down. The Arctic Front comes on down Thursday with Arctic air settling into the region by Friday. Still Arctic air in place at the end of the run on Monday.

 

[SimplySmoothWX]

Druncle is running!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't care what happens, we are just here for the ride like Matt say's. 

Going to be a rough ride though!!

[Doinko]

We were right on the border here in Feb 2021. Around 5" of snow. Not too much ice, around a quarter inch. A lot of the precip was sleet

[OysterPrintout]

its happening dot gif

 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

its happening dot gif

 

LMFAO

[Meatyorologist]

The GFS is off and running. God help us all.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Negative. Although that one did also have -EPO/-NAO...lotsa blocking.

Gotcha 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

18 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

The alphabet soup is weird. I know what all of the acronyms mean, but 80% of them do not need to be (and are usually not) used. It reminds me of being in law school and after the first few months the first years (1Ls) are using all of this nonsense jargon to sound impressive. Meanwhile, the graduating 3Ls and practicing lawyers know that KNOWING the information is one thing, but being able to communicate in a way that is understandable (and properly applicable) is the full circle.

It's classic in academia. A valuable skill taught in graduate school was to evaluate your audience and explain accordingly. It was always harder to give a 5-min presentation of my research than a 50-min one. The best professors who truly understood a topic could explain it to a laymen in simple terms quite easily. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The GFS is off and running. God help us all.

It will be much like the 06z was.

[SeanNyberg]

Even when the models stay fairly consistently good we still go through the stages of grief. LOL. Everything looks great folks. If you're really struggling (no joke) let us know. We all obviously care about this stuff, so it can be crushing if we convince ourselves it's a bust.

But it all looks great. Surprisingly. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Yeah, sorry about all of that.

Don't know why I would get irritated with you between the DMs from the peanut gallery about running "Phil's Forum" or the alphabet soup grandstanding that doesn't get backed up with much of anything. Then showing up as some kind of Grand Climate Wizard, offering an answer to everything about a microclimate 3000 miles away to technical issues on the site. None of this is new, its literally a over a decade of this.

You and Matt are right, I'll just shut up at this point.

I think it’s hard to judge someone’s personality based on interactions on a weather forum. But I’m sorry you feel this way.

I’ve never claimed to be an expert on PNW microclimates. Ever. Just 3 posts ago I re-affirmed that. Not sure where this idea comes from.

And grandstanding wizard? Dude I’ve been flat out wrong at least 50% of time this winter, at least on the subseasonal stuff. I’ve bump trolled myself a few times already. I’m nothing special.

And I think most people here know what the acronyms mean, many people have explained them on this forum. I do have an obsession with subseasonal forecasting and the interaction between weather/climate variables, and I’m probably on the spectrum, so maybe my posting style needs some work. It’s not intentional, though.

Still, I have nothing but love for all of you. Even you, Fred.  

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I don't care what happens, we are just here for the ride like Matt say's. 

Going to be a rough ride though!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod thinking likely snow accumulation Thursday night into Friday now.

[Requiem]

Godspeed GFS watchers 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

LOL, nailed it. I was just looking up the current top analog of January 1998 for Eugene and found that the coldest day was a 37/30.

What analog list is this?! 

 

5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

its happening dot gif

 

My Dad was right. 

 

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Are you good my brother in Christ?

No

 

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And Andrew's gone full weenie mode!

I just want the record to state as of 1:47pm on January 5th I am not on board. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m actually fine, in the macro sense. I’ve been through this roller coaster many many times and always come out on the other side! 

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I always appreciate your input, for the record. Just gotta fling some crap your way considering you were one of the long range prognosticators beating the wall to wall western torch drum the loudest going into this winter. Long story short I’ll probably troll react most of your posts until it snows here. But it doesn’t actually mean I think you’re trolling.

That’s totally fine. Especially for a call like that, I’d be surprised if I didn’t get bump-trolled.

FWIW I don’t have negative personal feelings towards anyone here. So easy to misconstrue one’s character when social interactions are confined to forum posts. If I lived out there I’d totally join you guys for forum meetups.

[Jbolin]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What analog list is this?! 

 

My Dad was right. 

 

No

 

I just want the record to state as of 1:47pm on January 5th I am not on board. 

The day ain't over yet bud. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

1 minute ago, Jbolin said:

The day ain't over yet bud. 

I’m never afraid to admit to being wrong. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Weather.com seems to be on board for me. Btw subtract 4-8F from the low temps and subtract 2 from the high temps, for some reason they always have that type of bias for me even 1 day out, idk why.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m actually fine, in the macro sense. I’ve been through this roller coaster many many times and always come out on the other side! 

life amirite!!

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think it’s hard to judge someone’s personality based on interactions on a weather forum. But I’m sorry you feel this way.

I’ve never claimed to be an expert on PNW microclimates. Ever. Just 3 posts ago I re-affirmed that. Not sure where this idea comes from.

And grandstanding wizard? Dude I’ve been flat out wrong at least 50% of time this winter, at least on the subseasonal stuff. I’ve bump trolled myself a few times already. I’m nothing special.

And I think most people here know what the acronyms mean, many people have explained them on this forum. I do have an obsession with subseasonal forecasting and the interaction between weather/climate variables, and I’m probably on the spectrum, so maybe my posting style needs some work. It’s not intentional, though.

Still, I have nothing but love for all of you. Even you, Fred.  

The curdled blood that is leaving my clenched fist has some love for you as well.

If you're going to reference an oscillation that isn't common, just spell it out. If you're trying to tie two things together to produce the outcome for a third, spell it out.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I honestly thought that GLAAM was some sort of inside joke on the forum for like a month. At some point it clicked and I was like "Oooooh, it's just angular momentum LOL" 

The problem is that all of this stuff is way more useful for diagnostic than prognostic applications...otherwise there would be people getting super rich from knowing the weather 3-4 weeks in advance. 

I just say AAM.

I think GLAAM is an inside joke of sorts since the “GL” is unnecessary (esp for forecasting purposes when specific latitudes are used, in which case it’s not really “global”).

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

The curdled blood that is leaving my clenched fist has some love for you as well.

If you're going to reference an oscillation that isn't common, just spell it out. If you're trying to tie two things together to produce the outcome for a third, spell it out.

Haha, thank you. I’ll try to be better with that going forward, I didn’t realize my posts were coming off that way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Monday morning could have very low snow levels. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z thoughts so far? 

[iFred]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m actually fine, in the macro sense. I’ve been through this roller coaster many many times and always come out on the other side! 

Just got to do a few rounds of Wim Hof breathing and find a center.

Still feels weird that something absolutely historic that no one on this forum has seen or experienced has a respectable chance of happening, and as almost as much chance as a complete bust. I don't think I have seen that here, even Jan 2020 and 2011 started to waver a bit with a week to go.

That said, no matter what, the dopamine crash is going to be the real rollercoaster for many. Over a thousand folks visited the forums in the past six hours, with page refreshes peaking at 100 per second as the Euro was rolling out. We are all at the edge of our seats hitting F5 and we may have at least four to five more days of this.

[RentonHill]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z thoughts so far? 

dont like it

[iFred]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

dont like it

Too late to return the shirts?

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z thoughts so far? 

Fantastic

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

dont like it

Same here. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z EURO output for PDX and Hood River.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z thoughts so far? 

GOA blocking is anchored further south and -NAO is stronger thus far. But the downstream consequences of seemingly positive developments in previous runs have delineated into worse results later on, so who knows.

[the_convergence_zone]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

I just say AAM.

I think GLAAM is an inside joke of sorts since the “GL” is unnecessary (esp for forecasting purposes when specific latitudes are used, in which case it’s not really “global”).

Thanks! I do appreciate your insight here as well, you know way more about subseasonal forecasting than I do! But I do agree that it's hard to pick it up based on your explanations alone, I had to get a textbook to help LOL. 

[Front Ranger]

One of my neighbors has the world's largest inflatable Santa still in his yard. While this most definitely means he's compensating for something, I'd also like to think it's a sign that the Polar Express may still be making its way to the lower 48.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

[Front Ranger]

Seems like initial trough is a little slower making its way down the coast at day 5.

[Doinko]

That Wednesday morning system is a lot stronger on the GFS than on the other models

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That Tuesday/Wednesday system could really dump up here…