1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Pros3lyte]

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yep. Why I had to get out of there. And unlike Hotel California, I actually left. I think we've been sub-freezing up here for at least the past 3 days if not longer. 

Latest from the WPC hazards folks. A few winners and losers in the last 24 hrs

Well, hopefully there’s still a bit of SE wobble- I’m actually located dead center of the thumb, it’s normally a bit cooler up here than metro Detroit. At least things should get cold afterwards! 
 

maybe we’ll get lucky with one of the next ones!
 

 

[Hawkeye]

Dang, the 00z NAM is way north.  I have to think it's too far given where the other models are tracking the upper low.

[winterfreak]

The Nam cuts it right over @Clinton's backyard lol.

[Grizzcoat]

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

The Nam cuts it right over @Clinton's backyard lol.

Oh that would suck.  Lets hope thats just the NAM being the NAM

[KTPmidMO]

D**n the NAM is WAAAAYYYY north compared to other models. Yet, another wrench thrown into the fire!
Has the Nam been very accurate lately?

[Grizzcoat]

1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

D**n the NAM is WAAAAYYYY north compared to other models. Yet, another wrench thrown into the fire!
Has the Nam been very accurate lately?

Never past 60 hours. Don't put much stock in it.

[Hawkeye]

This run is so far north it tracks the upper low into southeast Iowa.  That's beyond an outlier.  I would just throw this run away, as much as I'd like it to be correct.

[Money]

Who says the NAM can’t happen?

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

D**n the NAM is WAAAAYYYY north compared to other models. Yet, another wrench thrown into the fire!
Has the Nam been very accurate lately?

The 18z GFS and Euro at hr 84 have low over or near Pine Bluff Arkansas, the NAM has it over mby only a 370 mile difference lol.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM 

[MKEstorm]

2 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

D**n the NAM is WAAAAYYYY north compared to other models. Yet, another wrench thrown into the fire!
Has the Nam been very accurate lately?

This is the NAM at long range! I wouldn’t put too much stock into it!

[winterfreak]

4 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

D**n the NAM is WAAAAYYYY north compared to other models. Yet, another wrench thrown into the fire!
Has the Nam been very accurate lately?

It never is this far out. You’re in a good spot for this one I think.

[bud2380]

6 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

D**n the NAM is WAAAAYYYY north compared to other models. Yet, another wrench thrown into the fire!
Has the Nam been very accurate lately?

Pretty much never. Not at 84 hours for sure. Maybe inside 36 hours. 

[Hoosier]

I remember that time the NAM nailed it at 84 hrs.

[Grizzcoat]

ICON is N -- at least in IA. Somewhat similar to the NAM at HR 75

[Clinton]

ICON is north

[Money]

FYI GFS Also coming in north 

[Money]

Last 5 runs on the GFS have been a slight NW shift each time at HR 72 (0z Tuesday) 

[winterfreak]

00z GFS looks similar to 18z

[Clinton]

GFS looks like a good hit for mby and KC.

 

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

Less snow in Nebraska on this run of the GFS. 

[Sciascia]

Word has it (from Fox Chicago’s Mike Caplan) that a special mission was done to collect sampling from this system even though it’s not yet on shore. Data was supposed to start appearing in the 00z suite.

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

It's been awhile since Kansas and Missouri have had a good I-70 snow storm but this looks good.

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

0z RDPS at hr 84

[Money]

That northern stream system is much quicker on GEM which kind of doesn’t allow this storm to cut 

[jcwxguy]

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Joplin met who works with Lezak seems bullish on snowfall amounts for Kansas and Missouri.

 

I hope he’s right. This afternoon we had a band of moderate snow hit Columbia and just sit there for about two hours. The temp dropped from 36 to 31 and the ground is white. I imagine that’s what will happen Tuesday…..I hope. 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, ATW said:

I hope he’s right. This afternoon we had a band of moderate snow hit Columbia and just sit there for about two hours. The temp dropped from 36 to 31 and the ground is white. I imagine that’s what will happen Tuesday…..I hope. 

It was good to see the GFS come in juiced tonight.  Tomorrow night the storm will be onshore lets hope the models look like this still.

[ATW]

Just now, Clinton said:

It was good to see the GFS come in juiced tonight.  Tomorrow night the storm will be onshore lets hope the models look like this still.

I don’t want any bad surprises! It looks like the rest of the month will be below avg temps and several storms rolling across the area. 

[jcwxguy]

[mlgamer]

00z GFS...If I had to complain about anything, it would be the SLP doesn't really deepen until it has passed me by to the east. Pretty whiny I know...lol

[jcwxguy]

[KTPmidMO]

17 minutes ago, ATW said:

I don’t want any bad surprises! It looks like the rest of the month will be below avg temps and several storms rolling across the area. 

Has anyone paid attention to the storm for next Thursday/Friday? GFS has it as an even more powerful storm than this one and has shown that for several runs now. I has it at 970 mb as it passes by STL. Crazy! Gary Lezak said that storm may very well be bigger and stronger than even this storm.

[gabel23]

1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

Has anyone paid attention to the storm for next Thursday/Friday? GFS has it as an even more powerful storm than this one and has shown that for several runs now. I has it at 970 mb as it passes by STL. Crazy! Gary Lezak said that storm may very well be bigger and stronger than even this storm.

We have a separate thread for that, look at the main page. Crazy we are chasing two storms at once but try to post on that thread!

[KTPmidMO]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

We have a separate thread for that, look at the main page. Crazy we are chasing two storms at once but try to post on that thread!

Oh shoot I didnt see that threat. Thanks for letting me know!

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

00z GFS...If I had to complain about anything, it would be the SLP doesn't really deepen until it has passed me by to the east. Pretty whiny I know...lol

If the models hold we may see a Winter Storm Watch issued tomorrow for this storm.  I have yet to have one this season.