1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[gabel23]

This is a crush job for Nebraska, this run is very similar to its run from when nam got into range. Nam doing nam things again, probably throw that run out. 

[Grizzcoat]

FWIW-

The SREF just did the same thing as the NAM--- graphics on pg 24.

[winterfreak]

Looks like Pivotal Weather added the ICON

[gabel23]

I will certainly take the nam but will cry for you guys in kc if models trend towards nam. Let’s see what the gfs has to say. Thing seems to be slowing down it seems?

[MKEstorm]

1 minute ago, winterfreak said:

Looks like Pivotal Weather added the ICON

Oh wow! They did! Nice!

[NickH4NU]

Amounts aside, that is 7 out of 7 NAM runs placing heaviest axis of snow over eastern Nebraska. 

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I will certainly take the nam but will cry for you guys in kc if models trend towards nam. Let’s see what the gfs has to say. Thing seems to be slowing down it seems?

It started showing trends of this about this time y-day. Now ; almost certainly slowing down. Good for those N and NW of track.

[tStacsh]

From south all week to a Rainer.   The models also slowing down in the longe range.   These models suck outside 3 days.  Like really suck.  

[uticasnow]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

From south all week to a Rainer.   The models also slowing down in the longe range.   These models suck outside 3 days.  Like really suck.  

Same old story for us in SE MI. Fun to watch the models, but in all reality it ends up rain, or a slopfest.

[WBadgersW]

I just got back from camping in the Ottawa National Forest and it was depressing with the lack of snow/ice. Even if the NAM is right, the Northern areas need snow the most. The vintage snowmobile racing in Eagle River has already been pushed back to February.

[gabel23]

Hastings says nah..

.WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  between 3 and 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 to
  45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
  central, and south central Nebraska.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

Hastings says nah..

.WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  between 3 and 5 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 to
  45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
  central, and south central Nebraska.

Somehow my county is not in a watch. All around. Bizarre NWS Hastings 

[KTPmidMO]

Exactly my thoughts. I've been in it big time all week and I'm gonna have the rug pulled out from under me right at the end. D**n shame.

[gabel23]

11 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

It started showing trends of this about this time y-day. Now ; almost certainly slowing down. Good for those N and NW of track.

It has actually been more consistent than the gfs and cmc! 

[winterfreak]

WSW just issued. EAX going with 4-6.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Money]

Everyone has been calling NAM an outlier for days and how it won’t happen etc while models keep trending towards it the last few cycles 

[Grizzcoat]

Past two runs of ICON have very near STL at 12Z Tuesday. It's not just the NAM, it's not just the SREF, my hunch is it's going to be a lot more.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Money said:

Everyone has been calling NAM an outlier for days and how it won’t happen etc while models keep trending towards it the last few cycles 

I'll give it props if the track from eastern Iowa to Green Bay verifies.

[CentralNebWeather]

18z ICON. Ok then. 

[Hawkeye]

The ICON continues to shift nw, unabated.

[winterfreak]

A track to STL is reasonable. Eastern KS like the NAM. Uhh...

[Grizzcoat]

DMX not even issuing watches yet for along and S of I-80.

been this way for years. And then last minute / during the event- put into warning or lesser events WWA when the event is all ready half over.  Lame office when it comes to Winter WX. 

[MKEstorm]

MKX in their afternoon discussion mentions that models have shifted northwest a "tad". Also mentioned that the system is now coming onshore and should be better sampled.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Monday through Saturday:

There remains concern for a strong system to bring widespread
accumulating snowfall to southern Wisconsin early next week.
Latest deterministic model solutions have shifted northwest a
tad more, putting the forecast area more into the heart of the
higher snowfall totals. Ensemble solutions suggest a high chance
(70-90%) of measurable snowfall with this system, with the
chance for 3 inches or more increasing to 50-80 percent across
much of southern Wisconsin. The higher snowfall probs remain
across the southeast half of the forecast area. While confidence
is gradually increasing in impactful snowfall, it is worth
noting that there is still a sizable spread among ensemble
members with the track/timing/intensity of the low. Now that the
system is coming onshore across the western United States, it
will be interesting to watch model trends over the next day or
so with the system better sampled over land.

Monday still looks dry through late afternoon as high pressure
exits ahead of the approaching low. Given current model
solutions, snow would then spread in from the southwest per warm
air advection and frontogenesis ahead of the low. Light snow
accums (1-2 inches) would be possible by daybreak Tuesday. The
better forcing/moisture is currently expected to arrive by mid-
afternoon Tuesday, continuing into the evening. The bulk of snow
accumulations would fall during this period. Snow would then
gradually wind down west to east overnight.

Lake Michigan is still on the mild side, with the latest south
lake water temp reading this afternoon sitting at 43 F. Given
the early week system isn`t very cold, these mild lake temps
could result in some rain/snow mix for lakeshore areas, though
model soundings still point to mainly snow. The lake could also
provide some enhancement of snowfall amounts in the east, given
sfc to 850 mb temp diffs around 10C.

Again, these finer details of timing and amounts will
ultimately depend on the exact low track. For now though, this
is the way things are trending.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

Hey @Clinton, I see you're in a watch now! Enjoy!

First one this year.  Hopefully there will be more.

[Grizzcoat]

Just now, MKEstorm said:

MKX in their afternoon discussion mentions that models have shifted northwest a "tad". Also mentioned that the system is now coming onshore and should be better sampled.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Monday through Saturday:

There remains concern for a strong system to bring widespread
accumulating snowfall to southern Wisconsin early next week.
Latest deterministic model solutions have shifted northwest a
tad more, putting the forecast area more into the heart of the
higher snowfall totals. Ensemble solutions suggest a high chance
(70-90%) of measurable snowfall with this system, with the
chance for 3 inches or more increasing to 50-80 percent across
much of southern Wisconsin. The higher snowfall probs remain
across the southeast half of the forecast area. While confidence
is gradually increasing in impactful snowfall, it is worth
noting that there is still a sizable spread among ensemble
members with the track/timing/intensity of the low. Now that the
system is coming onshore across the western United States, it
will be interesting to watch model trends over the next day or
so with the system better sampled over land.

Monday still looks dry through late afternoon as high pressure
exits ahead of the approaching low. Given current model
solutions, snow would then spread in from the southwest per warm
air advection and frontogenesis ahead of the low. Light snow
accums (1-2 inches) would be possible by daybreak Tuesday. The
better forcing/moisture is currently expected to arrive by mid-
afternoon Tuesday, continuing into the evening. The bulk of snow
accumulations would fall during this period. Snow would then
gradually wind down west to east overnight.

Lake Michigan is still on the mild side, with the latest south
lake water temp reading this afternoon sitting at 43 F. Given
the early week system isn`t very cold, these mild lake temps
could result in some rain/snow mix for lakeshore areas, though
model soundings still point to mainly snow. The lake could also
provide some enhancement of snowfall amounts in the east, given
sfc to 850 mb temp diffs around 10C.

Again, these finer details of timing and amounts will
ultimately depend on the exact low track. For now though, this
is the way things are trending.

I think the planes sampling y-day that got into the overnight/today's guidance is the reason for the NW jog. I wouldn't expect a jog further SE.

[Money]

GFS once again coming in NW early on it’s run

[hawkstwelve]

First Winter Storm Watch of the season issued here for 3-7 inches! I'll happily take that.

[Money]

GFS 

[winterfreak]

Looks like most on here will get at least some snow. Haven't had a storm do that in a while.

[Clinton]

@KTPmidMO 3 straight runs where the GFS has had basically the same track, your looking pretty good.

[Hoosier]

I checked and not one of the 51 EPS members, nor any of the 12z GEFS members gets the surface low into Iowa like the NAM.

[CentralNebWeather]

21z RAP to 51 hours. 

[Sciascia]

Kuchera map of the last 13 GFS runs, ending 6am Wednesday morning.

[Clinton]

EAX lengthy AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
241 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

.Discussion...
Issued at 227 PM CST SAT JAN 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Winter storm impacts the area Monday and Tuesday. Right now,
  exact amounts remain uncertain, but confidence is growing that
  some portions of the area may see 5 inches or more.

-Bitterly cold temperatures expected for the second half of next
week into next weekend

-Additional snowfall may be possible late next week


Discussion:

Saturday-Sunday:

Quiet weather expected today and Sunday ahead of the more
significant wave arriving Monday. Cloudy skies and patchy drizzle
and flurries are expected to persist through the day with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 30s. On Sunday expect dry weather to
remain with high in the mid 30s to mid 40s and the brief return of
some sunshine to the area.


Monday Tuesday:

Moderate uncertainty continues with the expected storm system on
Monday and Tuesday. A deepening trough moves off the Rockies Monday
morning and forms a closed low. It is expected to track east through
the southern Plains on Monday into Tuesday bringing impacts to our
forecast area. As stated previously, uncertainty remains with
this system due to slight differences in track of the low and warm
temperatures ahead of its arrival. Models are in decent agreement
that the warm air advection into the area will allow
precipitation to begin as mostly rainfall or a rain/snow mix
Monday morning. Northern parts of the forecast area may favor a
mixed precip type initially, but wet-bulbing effects may allow for
a transition to all snow by the afternoon. The rest of the area
may take a bit longer to transition to snow, as they await the
approaching low drawing in colder air. Snowfall is expected to
continue through much of the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning as the low tracks south of the forecast area.

It`s still tough to talk about specific amounts
due to uncertainty in the exact track of the system and timing of
the cooling temperatures profile, but it`s looking more likely that
somewhere in our forecast area will see impactful snowfall amounts.
Depending on track, there is also potential for a very sharp
gradient in snowfall accumulations, noted well by the NAM`s slightly
farther north track. There is still some differences even in model
blends/ensemble, but it seems that they are better communicating the
potential for some higher amounts in our forecast area. Starting on
the lower end, NBM probabilities show a greater than 75% chance of 1
inch of snow for the entire area. LREF has a greater than 95%
chance. The NBM probability of 3 inches is 50-70% for the northern
half of the CWA and 40-50% to the south. The LREF on the other hand
has a >80% chance of 3 inches in the north and a 70-80% chance in
the south. Looking at potential for amounts over 5 inches is 40-60%
north of US-36 and 30-40% for points south according the the NBM.
The LREF on the other hand, keeps a 70-80% chance of 5 inches for
the counties on either side of US-36. Locations further south have a
60-70% chance of seeing 5 inches according to LREF, which is quite a
bit higher than NBM probabilities for the same amount. Amounts of 8
inches or greater are 30-50% near US-36, and 30-40% according to the
NBM. Lower probabilities from the NBM may be in part to a slightly
warmer bias compared to other models, due to our recent above
normal temperatures. All of this to say that despite model
differences, there is starting to be some consensus that at least
a portion of our forecast area has potential of reaching winter
storm criteria (5+ inches). Snowfall uncertainty is shown well by
the extremely broad range in both the NBM and LFEF`s 25th to 75th
percentiles ranging from 1 to 9 inches for a lot of the forecast
area. Again, actual forecast amounts are still going to be very
difficult to nail down, especially because of significant impacts
from minor temperatures differences, and the potential for
slightly warmer temperatures to cut into snowfall amounts.

Outside of snowfall, gusty winds are expected Tuesday as the low
passes to the east and the pressure gradient tightens. Northerly gusts
of 35-45 mph will be possible leading to potential for visibility
restrictions even after snowfall ends. Highest wind speeds occur
after snowfall moves out of the area, but there still remains
potential for a brief period of white out conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Additionally, wind chill values on Tuesday
will remain in the teens, falling into the single digits after
sunset. Winds gusts should subside overnights as the low continues
to push east of the area.

Forecast confidence will likely improve later tonight and Sunday as
the wave finally makes its way on shore and we can better sample the
system. Regardless, with potential impacts to the forecast area
Monday night and Tuesday morning, it will be important to stay tuned
to the forecast this weekend. A winter storm watch has been
issued for the entire forecast area for Monday and Tuesday.
Upgrades to warnings and advisories can be expected as confidence
improves.


Rest of the week:

After Tuesday, it looks like we will remain in an
active pattern through the week into next weekend. Several
additional waves looks to move through the forecast area. Colder air
remains in place through the week so additional winter weather will
be possible. Temperatures will be significantly colder starting
Thursday and continuing into next weekend. Highs in the 20s and
teens and lows in the single digits or even below zero look
possible. Another impressive wave looks to swing into the region Friday
into Saturday bringing another round of potentially significant
snowfall for somewhere in the region. While this is still way too
far out to get into any specifics, with cold air already in place,
heavy snowfall is looking possible for somewhere in the region.
There is still a lot of run to run model variability to know if we
will see any impacts from this system or not.

 

[Jayhawker85]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX lengthy AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
241 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024

.Discussion...
Issued at 227 PM CST SAT JAN 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Winter storm impacts the area Monday and Tuesday. Right now,
  exact amounts remain uncertain, but confidence is growing that
  some portions of the area may see 5 inches or more.

-Bitterly cold temperatures expected for the second half of next
week into next weekend

-Additional snowfall may be possible late next week


Discussion:

Saturday-Sunday:

Quiet weather expected today and Sunday ahead of the more
significant wave arriving Monday. Cloudy skies and patchy drizzle
and flurries are expected to persist through the day with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 30s. On Sunday expect dry weather to
remain with high in the mid 30s to mid 40s and the brief return of
some sunshine to the area.


Monday Tuesday:

Moderate uncertainty continues with the expected storm system on
Monday and Tuesday. A deepening trough moves off the Rockies Monday
morning and forms a closed low. It is expected to track east through
the southern Plains on Monday into Tuesday bringing impacts to our
forecast area. As stated previously, uncertainty remains with
this system due to slight differences in track of the low and warm
temperatures ahead of its arrival. Models are in decent agreement
that the warm air advection into the area will allow
precipitation to begin as mostly rainfall or a rain/snow mix
Monday morning. Northern parts of the forecast area may favor a
mixed precip type initially, but wet-bulbing effects may allow for
a transition to all snow by the afternoon. The rest of the area
may take a bit longer to transition to snow, as they await the
approaching low drawing in colder air. Snowfall is expected to
continue through much of the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning as the low tracks south of the forecast area.

It`s still tough to talk about specific amounts
due to uncertainty in the exact track of the system and timing of
the cooling temperatures profile, but it`s looking more likely that
somewhere in our forecast area will see impactful snowfall amounts.
Depending on track, there is also potential for a very sharp
gradient in snowfall accumulations, noted well by the NAM`s slightly
farther north track. There is still some differences even in model
blends/ensemble, but it seems that they are better communicating the
potential for some higher amounts in our forecast area. Starting on
the lower end, NBM probabilities show a greater than 75% chance of 1
inch of snow for the entire area. LREF has a greater than 95%
chance. The NBM probability of 3 inches is 50-70% for the northern
half of the CWA and 40-50% to the south. The LREF on the other hand
has a >80% chance of 3 inches in the north and a 70-80% chance in
the south. Looking at potential for amounts over 5 inches is 40-60%
north of US-36 and 30-40% for points south according the the NBM.
The LREF on the other hand, keeps a 70-80% chance of 5 inches for
the counties on either side of US-36. Locations further south have a
60-70% chance of seeing 5 inches according to LREF, which is quite a
bit higher than NBM probabilities for the same amount. Amounts of 8
inches or greater are 30-50% near US-36, and 30-40% according to the
NBM. Lower probabilities from the NBM may be in part to a slightly
warmer bias compared to other models, due to our recent above
normal temperatures. All of this to say that despite model
differences, there is starting to be some consensus that at least
a portion of our forecast area has potential of reaching winter
storm criteria (5+ inches). Snowfall uncertainty is shown well by
the extremely broad range in both the NBM and LFEF`s 25th to 75th
percentiles ranging from 1 to 9 inches for a lot of the forecast
area. Again, actual forecast amounts are still going to be very
difficult to nail down, especially because of significant impacts
from minor temperatures differences, and the potential for
slightly warmer temperatures to cut into snowfall amounts.

Outside of snowfall, gusty winds are expected Tuesday as the low
passes to the east and the pressure gradient tightens. Northerly gusts
of 35-45 mph will be possible leading to potential for visibility
restrictions even after snowfall ends. Highest wind speeds occur
after snowfall moves out of the area, but there still remains
potential for a brief period of white out conditions Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Additionally, wind chill values on Tuesday
will remain in the teens, falling into the single digits after
sunset. Winds gusts should subside overnights as the low continues
to push east of the area.

Forecast confidence will likely improve later tonight and Sunday as
the wave finally makes its way on shore and we can better sample the
system. Regardless, with potential impacts to the forecast area
Monday night and Tuesday morning, it will be important to stay tuned
to the forecast this weekend. A winter storm watch has been
issued for the entire forecast area for Monday and Tuesday.
Upgrades to warnings and advisories can be expected as confidence
improves.


Rest of the week:

After Tuesday, it looks like we will remain in an
active pattern through the week into next weekend. Several
additional waves looks to move through the forecast area. Colder air
remains in place through the week so additional winter weather will
be possible. Temperatures will be significantly colder starting
Thursday and continuing into next weekend. Highs in the 20s and
teens and lows in the single digits or even below zero look
possible. Another impressive wave looks to swing into the region Friday
into Saturday bringing another round of potentially significant
snowfall for somewhere in the region. While this is still way too
far out to get into any specifics, with cold air already in place,
heavy snowfall is looking possible for somewhere in the region.
There is still a lot of run to run model variability to know if we
will see any impacts from this system or not.

 

Come on winter storm!! Has this storm been named yet?

[KTPmidMO]

I'm about to throw the towel in on this one. I went from being in 15" yesterday and a lot of models agreeing that the main snow band would be through central mo. Now, the only 2 models showing worth anything here in central MO is the GDPS and GFS. And the GFS has went from giving me 15" to now barely even 5." Another run or 2 and I'm bound to completely be out of it. Just a little disheartening after being in the bullseye almost all week. 

[KTPmidMO]

10 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Kuchera map of the last 13 GFS runs, ending 6am Wednesday morning.

Exactly, I've been in the thick of it for most runs here in Jefferson City, MO and now its about to completely miss me to the north. 

[Jayhawker85]

GFS is staying the course and keeps the low over Oklahoma and southern Mo which brings the defo band right over KC!

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GEFS