1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Exactly, I've been in the thick of it for most runs here in Jefferson City, MO and now its about to completely miss me to the north. 

Big difference between Jeff City and Columbia.  I still think you'll be in that 3-6 range and a potentially bigger and drier storm possible in less than a week.

[Clinton]

Accidently posted this in the wrong thread so I will move it here.

EAX mentioning 45mph winds.

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

[Hawkeye]

The nws forecast is calling for 37º Monday and 34º Tuesday, so accumulation will likely be less than what models are spitting out for my area, especially considering most of our rates will be light to moderate.

[Clinton]

GEFS for those further east.

[Clinton]

32 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Come on winter storm!! Has this storm been named yet?

I have no idea.  I'll give it a name based on what it does, it could be a good name or a very bad one lol.

[indianajohn]

Well may be time to concentrate on next weeks storm..... what has been a boring winter with our only highlight being some Thunder Snow back in October, this storm is looking like a non-event for my area.

[gabel23]

Well I have seen my probabilities increase today. Went from expected 5" to 7". Nice yellow bullseye showing up in my county also! 

[gabel23]

I have seen this happen twice in my life where the high end 10% forecast actually verified. Tonights runs will be very interesting. 

[Money]

18z euro at 72

[Clinton]

18z Euro north again

[KCSmokey]

Just now, Clinton said:

18z Euro north again

Still not upset with that run, it would help lay down more snowpack North of us.

[winterfreak]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro north again

We're going to get the rug pulled aren't we?

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

We're going to get the rug pulled aren't we?

Looks that way

[CentralNebWeather]

18z Euro. 

[CentralNebWeather]

21z 

[mlgamer]

Waiting to see what the 00z suite of models have to say...I'm not sold on the more northern solutions just yet.

[Clinton]

25 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Waiting to see what the 00z suite of models have to say...I'm not sold on the more northern solutions just yet.

Even as lousy as the 18z Euro was it still puts 6 inches in mby.  Just very little margin of error now.

[Chambana]

We typically do good with these, but thermals are just not there. Gonna be a rainer here with a back end 1” slop. No biggie on missing this, as the looming (potential?) blizzard late next week looks very promising. 

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control and Mean

[Hoosier]

If I had to bet...

My money is that the NAM has successfully caught on to the idea of a farther north track, but has gone too far with it and will eventually shift south toward the other models.  Could potentially still see the other models creep north on subsequent runs.  

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Chambana said:

We typically do good with these, but thermals are just not there. Gonna be a rainer here with a back end 1” slop. No biggie on missing this, as the looming (potential?) blizzard late next week looks very promising. 

I'd think you're in play for some front end snow, but haven't looked too closely for over there.

[bud2380]

21z SREF

[bud2380]

[Chambana]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd think you're in play for some front end snow, but haven't looked too closely for over there.

Eh we will see, not impressed though, especially with the trends. Really hoping late next week potential pans out.

[jaster220]

APX finally acknowledged the looming storm, lol

Tuesday system: Closely monitoring a system progged to march into
the Great Lakes during the day Tuesday. Current guidance supports an
ejecting Pacific wave drawing in deeper Gulf moisture as it passes
closer to the Great Lakes region. Given the colder airmass in place,
the scales are tipped heavily in favor of snow across the CWA at
this time. There are some caveats, particularly when considering the
storm track and intensity remains uncertain. In general, guidance is
favoring the surface low pressure passing across the southern
reaches of Michigan or far northern Ohio. With Gulf moisture
becoming wrapped in this system, widespread snow is expected, though
with a more easterly flow, some rain may try to mix in closer to
Saginaw Bay. Exact accumulations are also rather uncertain at this
time, though it should be noted that there may be potential for some
4-6" snowfall totals (through Tuesday evening) across the CWA where
the heaviest axis of snowfall sets up, especially with an earlier
onset of snow. Despite this snow likely being a more wet / dense
composition (7-10 to 1 snow ratios), gusty winds associated with the
system can lead to some instances of blowing snow. When combined
with slippery / slushy roads, the development of hazardous travel
will certainly be possible. This activity looks to carry into
Tuesday night and Wednesday (which will result in additional
snowfall on top of what falls during the day Tuesday). Again, plenty
of exact details to be ironed out in the coming forecast cycles.

[jcwxguy]

Hr 54 nam low is farther south 

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, gabel23 said:

I have seen this happen twice in my life where the high end 10% forecast actually verified. Tonights runs will be very interesting. 

NAM looks amazing for most of Nebraska 

[hawkstwelve]

00z NAM drops close to a foot up here. Highly doubt it. 

[Clinton]

NAM jogs south looks better but not great for KC.

[winterfreak]

NAM still cuts the low over KC. Hard to believe that.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[bud2380]

I’ve seen the NAM do stuff like this for years. And it’s extremely rare that it ends up being correct. I’d be very willing to wager that this is way too far north with the SLP

[jcwxguy]

[Jayhawker85]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

NAM still cuts the low over KC. Hard to believe that.

The nam started south then quickly cuts the low to the Northeast which none of the other models show happening. It comes out of Colorado about the same as the GFS and Euro but jumps north when it gets to Wichita 

[jcwxguy]

[jaster220]

NAM keeps almost the same 850 mb thermal regime that the Euro portrays, but insists on reflecting the MSLP way further N. Makes very little sense with it's own self. @Clinton's post wrt to corrections is a good one. Iirc, we saw the NAM play catch-up on the track during the late November event. 

[Hoosier]

I wish that front end thump wasn't so poorly timed here.  Won't really be able to enjoy it.

[Sciascia]

This storm is close enough to have the low pop up on the HRRR. Here it is at 48hrs vs. the new NAM:

[jcwxguy]