January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33.8˚F after a low of 30.6˚F.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Just got on here. So what’s happening?  We lost the GFS that we never had anyway..  did we lose anything else?  Both my Apps went from very cold to much warmer 

We are European and Canadian fans along with those new fancy models like the Sphere or whatever it is. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Still thinking we get something. Still thinking it tends towards being garden-variety instead of historic or epic cold.

[Mid Valley Duck]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We have not lost the ICON! Andrew would be so proud right now. 

Andrew is not onboard, too much January heartache in his lifetime

[Mid Valley Duck]

This GFS run will not fully come on board but it will be better than last nights

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z ICON says it’s gonna get quite cold Saturday morning. Temperatures get close to or in the single digits. Wind chill close to zero or negative!

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Pretty significant improvements on the icon.

 

icon looks nice 

Improvements from 06z but a step back from 00z (06z ICON much less amped than 00z).

[Mid Valley Duck]

The Goofus is making moves

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We are European and Canadian fans along with those new fancy models like the Sphere or whatever it is. 

So nothing changed from last night.  Thanks. Something is going to change before this day ends and I hope it’s the Goofus

[Andstorm]

8 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Just got on here. So what’s happening?  We lost the GFS that we never had anyway..  did we lose anything else?  Both my Apps went from very cold to much warmer 

I was curious about apps too. not something I pay too much attention to, but seems like they may bias towards GFS since i’ve noticed they seem to most closely reflect GFS than any other model. And they certainly leverage operational runs over ensemble means. The Apple weather app has a high in Portland of 49 degrees on Tues, Jan 16. Ensemble guidance suggests the high may not reach freezing. That’s a mammoth delta. Why I constantly remind people never to plan around the app forecast more than a few days out. 

[Kolk1604]

At least it's progress 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

This GFS run will not fully come on board but it will be better than last nights

Dipping its toes into the idea of caving to euro but really really really doesn’t want to.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z ICON showing that Saturday system like in the 00z EURO. It has it even further south into Central California. Talk about Jet Supression! It’s gonna keep us colder longer.

[AbbyJr]

Just now, Phil said:

Dipping its toes into the idea of caving but really really doesn’t want to.  

Perhaps it’s too embarrassed to cave?

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dipping its toes into the idea of caving to euro but really really really doesn’t want to.  

Much further west with that low up near Alaska. It needed two steps to the west and it just took the first

[Requiem]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

So nothing changed from last night.  Thanks. Something is going to change before this day ends and I hope it’s the Goofus

Euro will moderate its temperatures somewhat and Goofus will cave to it.

May take more like 48 hours instead of 24, though.

[Timmy]

Gem doesn’t look as good, but still plenty good

[SnowOnMainStreet]

Quick question: I'm new to checking out the models in detail and was wondering if there will be enough precipitation  to get any good snow totals as it looks like my area will be cold enough after Thursday morning, what setting/feature should I look at when looking at the model runs? Thanks in advance. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Much further west with that low up near Alaska. It needed two steps to the west and it just took the first

More like 1/3rd of a step but it’s something. Much better blocking in the arctic and over Alaska, but it’s still very progressive (notorious GFS bias).

I’d be more nervous about the GFS if it were digging too far west. But this is just classic GFS goofiness, you can usually count on it correcting more meridional inside day-5 (at least until ULL season March-May, when it loses its shit even more).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Snow on main Street said:

Quick question: I'm wondering if there will be enough precipitation  to get any good snow totals as it looks like my area will be cold enough after Thursday morning, what setting/feature should I look at when looking at the model runs? Thanks in advance. 

Really too early to say. For snow, we often have no idea who gets the goods until it gets within 24 hours of the event.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Gem doesn’t look as good, but still plenty good

That was a huge outlier progression anyway, we all knew the 00z operational run wasn’t going verify, which is why we saved gifs of it (or at least I did). Lol

[Requiem]

I actually prefer this GEM run quite a bit so far, though I may be speaking too soon as it isn't over on tidbits 

[FroYoBro]

GFS is still very far apart from the Euro solutions. Too bad, I was hoping for a bigger cold trend to emerge there today. People are probably correct that the two will meet in the middle over the next couple of days. 

Edited January 7 by FroYoBro

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Really too early to say. For snow, we often have no idea who gets the goods until it gets within 24 hours of the event.

We know Mossman location will get minimum 12 inches based on law of attraction. 

[TT-SEA]

We are in the compromise phase now... has to happen as event approaches.   It will be plenty cold and snowy for many.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I actually prefer this GEM run quite a bit so far, though I may be speaking too soon as it isn't over on tidbits 

12z GEM colder Saturday morning compared to its 00z run.

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

GFS is still very far apart from the Euro solutions. Too bad, I was hoping for a bigger cold trend to emerge there today. People are probably correct that the two will meet in the middle over the next couple of days. 

I have a feeling that thing isn't done changing-- it took a pretty drastic leap this run 

[Weiner Warrior]

Seems like a huge step in the right direction for the GFS. Cold air works it's way further South. Colder air around Oly North. A few more runs and we'll have a full on arctic front down into OR.

[Snownerd3000]

4 hours ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Tsk tsk, you know better than that, Barbie..

 this came to mind

[SnarkyGoblin]

GFS op the last 3 days of runs (every 6 hours) for Saturday Morning.  Zero consistency.

Compared to the Euro, which has admitted struggled a bit.  (This GIF is every 12 hours)

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are in the compromise phase now... has to happen as event approaches.   It will be plenty cold and snowy for many.  

The GFS probably caves 60-70% while euro/cmc meet it ~ 30% of the way. I think.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Gem doesn’t look as good, but still plenty good

Yeah, definitely a step back in the mid range. Still very good for SLE north.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

GFS op the last 3 days of runs (every 6 hours) for Saturday Morning.  Zero consistency.

Compared to the Euro, which has admitted struggled a bit.  (This GIF is every 12 hours)

The GFS has stabilized somewhat in that top chart. 

Big jumps are going to become almost impossible now because we are getting so close.   All signs point to meeting somewhere in the middle.    Probably close to what the EPS has been showing.   Probably not the strong arctic front blasting south scenario but still quite cold and snowy overall.   The real wild card right now is some kind of overrunning event. 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z for Monday morning.

[SeanNyberg]

Huge improvement on the GFS!!

This is exactly what we needed to see. A reasonable and rationale shift colder and snowier.

Big improvement.

[Andstorm]

So when do you all feel we’re in timing territory where a full pull back is unlikely? 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS has stabilized somewhat in that top chart. 

Big jumps are going to become almost impossible now because we are getting so close.   All signs point to meeting somewhere in the middle.    Probably close to what the EPS has been showing.   Probably not the strong arctic front blasting south scenario but still quite cold and snowy overall.   The real wild card right now is some kind of overrunning event. 

The "all or nothing" camp was quite vocal on here a couple days ago...

[jakerepp]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

The "all or nothing" camp was quite vocal on here a couple days ago...

You'd think people would know that 'all or nothing' typically ends with nothing and a compromise is always the more likely scenario.

[The Cats Meow]

Is it possible the Nor Easter is gumming up the works/models?  On the ones where it shows the cold air just heading east it looks like those lack any significant SE ridge and the cold seems to just spread out east and fill the gap left by that storm surging up the east coast.

Teleconnections I think is what they call it.  Who knows.

It's on. It's off. It's on.  It's off.

 

I will be utilizing the GOLU model starting Thursday.  It's 100% accurate.