January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The "all or nothing" camp was quite vocal on here a couple days ago...

I think it will end up being fairly significant... definitely not nothing.   Depends on how you define "all" because it's certainly coming.

[Requiem]

That southern Oregon low could end up being good for the WV snow-wise if precip reaches further north than expected...

[Front Ranger]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think it will end up being fairly significant... definitely not nothing.   Depends on how you define all because it's definitely coming.

Well, basically certain posters were saying they thought either something close to the crazy runs would verify - or it would collapse into a non event.

Still remains to be seen!

[Mid Valley Duck]

The GFS made a significant shift southwest with the bulk of the cold. This really puts it in perspective.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GEM next Wednesday 4am. Still lots of low level cold west of the Cascades.

[Kolk1604]

GEFS is also better 

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think it will end up being fairly significant... definitely not nothing.   Depends on how you define "all" because it's certainly coming.

I assume 'all' means regionwide snowstorm(s) and close to a week below freezing or something like that.

[Front Ranger]

GEM once again builds a monster west-based -NAO block that keeps the cold locked in for the lower 48.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MossMan]

Lovely 33 degree sunrise. Topped off all of my gas cans this morning just in case the camp “ALL” crowd wins out and we get a heavy dump of snow which knocks out the grid before going subzero temp wise! I will also need the fuel for all of the plowing I will be doing. 

[The Cats Meow]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

GEM once again builds a monster west-based -NAO block that keeps the cold locked in for the lower 48.

and that map shows some really good east or se ridge which is very nice

[Minion]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Well, basically certain posters were saying they thought either something close to the crazy runs would verify - or it would collapse into a non event.

Still remains to be seen!

It was always going to meet somewhere in the middle. lol, the crazy runs weren't going to verify, but we also weren't going to get shut out.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Lovely 33 degree sunrise. Topped off all of my gas cans this morning just in case the camp “ALL” crowd wins out and we get a heavy dump of snow which knocks out the grid before going subzero temp wise! I will also need the fuel for all of the plowing I will be doing. 

You definitely don't need the ALL to he happy in your area!

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Only 15.6”…I was hoping for at least 15.8”

[Minion]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Lovely 33 degree sunrise. Topped off all of my gas cans this morning just in case the camp “ALL” crowd wins out and we get a heavy dump of snow which knocks out the grid before going subzero temp wise! I will also need the fuel for all of the plowing I will be doing. 

Beautiful pic

[Mid Valley Duck]

Ukmet coming around now too

 

[van city]

UKMET much improved 

[GHweatherChris]

All in means just my backyard.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looks like I get a little tomorrow morning. Starting to show up in some short-term models, too.

 

[RentonHill]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Well, basically certain posters were saying they thought either something close to the crazy runs would verify - or it would collapse into a non event.

Still remains to be seen!

I absolutely thought this was the case but it seems obvious now that wasn’t best view

[MossMan]

What an exciting week coming up! College football National Championship on Monday, a nice windy stormy day on Tuesday ((if that is still in the forecast) and then all eyes on Thursday for the kick off of strong El Niño cold and snowy madness! 

Edited January 7 by MossMan

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Ukmet coming around now too

 

 

Just now, van city said:

UKMET much improved 

12z UKMET penetrates the Arctic air further south compared to the 00z by Friday afternoon. 

[Kolk1604]

So I found the guy that makes us look bad by passing around false information 

 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like I get a little tomorrow morning. Starting to show up in some short-term models, too.

 

1st shade of grey!! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Doesn’t stay long 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

So I found the guy that makes us look bad by passing around false information 

 

Joe Burrow! Well he is just sitting on the sidelines bored so he needed something to do. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Huge westward shift on the GEFS

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Doesn’t stay long 

A week-long cold snap isn’t too shabby, particularly in a Niño winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

1st shade of grey!! 

I expect you will score tomorrow.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

GFS looks better 

Yeah GFS moved in right direcrion.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A week-long cold snap isn’t too shabby, particularly in a Niño winter.

Without a doubt! I was going to be over the moon happy with a Valentine’s Day weekend 2021 type event, quick but potent hitter…A week during a strong El Niño would be amazing! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The Graph Cast finally came in.  Very cold.

 

1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

So um, if this is true, then it's settled. If GraphCast stays on board today, then it's happening, period. We're locked. Screw what literally any other model says.

https://www.pilotonline.com/2023/11/16/weather-forecasts-may-be-quicker-and-more-accurate-thanks-to-google-ai/#:~:text=In research published in Science,than the current gold standard.

The GraphCast also has temperature maps. The 00z run has -12C to -16C temps west of the Cascades next weekend. Some small areas -16C to -20C. Hoping the GraphCast verifies!

[SeanNyberg]

GFS Ensembles surface temps cooling yet again on this run.

The GFS walk back continues.

[Phishy Wx]

FTR,  

All In = Historic

Nothing = rain and 34

in the middle = garden variety cold snap, not record breaking but significant.

now time to get me lazy a** up and do some winterization 

 

 

[RentonHill]

GEPS is colder loading the 850s than its 00z so far

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

9 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

Did you make your own mix or does it work on kids bubble packs that you can get at parties?

I have heard that there's a banana trick too.

The kids bubble backs they sell at stores worked for me. I'm not really sure what temperature it needs to be for it to freeze quickly, we usually did it around 0-10 degrees, but for all I know it could work in warmer temps than that.

[Front Ranger]

Most likely outcome at this point, at least as far as temperatures for the PNW, appears to be something in the middle of Jan 1998 and Dec 1968.

If that happens, it will be a huge win for both a strong Nino winter and the month of January. Couldn't ask for much more.

[Slushy Inch]

Nws Seattle removed the special weather statement wtf

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

The GraphCast also has temperature maps. The 00z run has -12C to -16C temps west of the Cascades next weekend. Some small areas -16C to -20C. Hoping the GraphCast verifies!

Looks like the coast stays warm.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Snow depth is abour 2 inches now, 25.9 degrees and the sun is out! Some snow could fall today, but seems likely that nothing will make it past the cascades.