January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Ken in Wood Village]

A Significant improvement on the 12Z GFS run. The first two are the 00Z from last night and the 06Z from this morning. It still needs more improvement but looking better 🌨

[Frontal Snowsquall]

31 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Looks like the coast stays warm.

Nope, the green is below freezing. Negative Celsius temperatures. It will be freezing out over the ocean too.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking they overcompensated for what was the infamous GFS cold bias on the last upgrade.  Just no other way to explain the huge problems it has seeing cold in the 4 to 6 day range.  The difference between the 6z and 12z GEFS is a total joke.  They may not have bothered to correct the bias in the further out stuff.  Just a guess.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Small spot of blue for me sucker!!

Reminds me of the blue line for pregnancy tests or when my son needed a diaper change.

[TacomaWx]

Called it almost 2 months ago lol

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Widespread 2-3 inches is all I ask for. Doesn't sound like too much for the weather gods to give, is it?

 

Preferably more but we get what we get.

That's what I want too.

[Randyc321]

Where is Andrew?  I can't find that he got banned.  Nice and calm in here.

[Phishy Wx]

Per NWS Spokane:

 

Wednesday through Saturday: "Cold" will be the most accurate 
descriptor of this part of the forecast period. The early-week 
system will begin wrapping up Wednesday morning, and its associated 
gusty winds will lessen into Wednesday afternoon. 

For the remainder of the week, a frigid arctic airmass will filter 
southward causing temperatures to plummet regionwide. The coldest 
temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend. Eastern WA and 
the ID Panhandle have a 60-80% chance of experiencing much below 
normal temperatures from January 12th-15th. For reference, normal 
temperatures for this time of year range throughout the 30s for 
highs and the 20s for lows.

While confidence is high that it will get cold, there is a lot of 
uncertainty about just how cold it will get. "Warmer" models are 
predicting highs in the teens and lows in the single digits, while 
colder models show highs struggling to get above zero and lows well 
into the negatives. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Where is Andrew?  I can't find that he got banned.  Nice and calm in here.

Missing Rob too 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Called it almost 2 months ago lol

That's not a call.....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The highest level of certainty with this is that there will be a massive pool of very cold temps to pull from.

Exactly, this type of air mass dose Not have to be on us to get really cold. The outflow will be frigid with this. 

[Weiner Warrior]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Great timing.

Side note.  Our furnace is over 50 years old and still working fine.  When we bought the house over 20 years ago the inspector called it a dead man walking.  They don't make em like they used to!

Yeah, hoping to get someone out today but probably going to have to wait till tomorrow. 59 degrees in here!! Lol

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Called it almost 2 months ago lol

to be fair if you look a couple weeks later the story changed.  go dig that one up, although I did say this event would be more transient (so probably wrong) 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

That's not a call.....

I know I am joking. Wasn’t really on board until this morning honestly. 

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Nice! Snowing in Bozeman this morning as well. Looking like maybe 2-4" there by end of day. 

I've been in MN/WI over the past week where there is still ZERO snow on the ground. Pretty wild. Looks like I'll be heading home right before the Bozeman becomes the Arctic...again.

12z Canadian has you sub -10 from hour 120 on. With a couple of lows near -40.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Cliff's model starting to go ham on the snow.  Definitely expect a blog update today. 

Not even the full run:

 

[iFred]

Allow me to be the wet blanket this morning, a @Rubus Leucodermis if you will. There are a couple concerning things that make me think that the GFS might have been on to something.

Didn’t the GFS get extra obs data early Friday from the Northern Pacific? Later that day we saw our shift to solutions that we’d typically expect. In addition, all of these model “turn arounds” occurred during the weekend when there is a three part hit to accuracy; a drop in aircraft obs, a drop in initialization data, and a lack of human input.

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Cliff's model starting to go ham on the snow.  Definitely expect a blog update today. 

Not even the full run:

 

Can you post the Portland area please 🌨

[iFred]

15 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

This is still just amazing to me. @iFred you really think there is something about the weekend runs/lack of human data validation that may have caused this?

 

Either a feature didn’t develop as expected or that feature doesn’t develop without the added data.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Allow me to be the wet blanket this morning, a @Rubus Leucodermis if you will. There are a couple concerning things that make me think that the GFS might have been on to something.

Didn’t the GFS get extra obs data early Friday from the Northern Pacific? Later that day we saw our shift to solutions that we’d typically expect. In addition, all of these model “turn arounds” occurred during the weekend when there is a three part hit to accuracy; a drop in aircraft obs, a drop in initialization data, and a lack of human input.

 

But...the 12z was a good improvement.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking they overcompensated for what the infamous GFS cold bias on the last upgrade.  Just no other way to explain the huge problems it has seeing cold in the 4 to 6 day range.  The difference between the 6z and 12z GEFS is a total joke.  They may not have bothered to correct the bias in the further out stuff.  Just a guess.

Struggling in upper level pattern 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Called it almost 2 months ago lol

Don't spike the football at the 5 yard line!

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Can you post the Portland area please 🌨

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Cliff's model starting to go ham on the snow.  Definitely expect a blog update today. 

Not even the full run:

 

These maps are the worst

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, iFred said:

Allow me to be the wet blanket this morning, a @Rubus Leucodermis if you will. There are a couple concerning things that make me think that the GFS might have been on to something.

Didn’t the GFS get extra obs data early Friday from the Northern Pacific? Later that day we saw our shift to solutions that we’d typically expect. In addition, all of these model “turn arounds” occurred during the weekend when there is a three part hit to accuracy; a drop in aircraft obs, a drop in initialization data, and a lack of human input.

 

so a 'garden variety' GFS solution is most likely?

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Good call - but don't spike the football at the 5 yard line!

I would not consider that a call at all just a random chance im no Nostradamus. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

40 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The highest level of certainty with this is that there will be a massive pool of very cold temps to pull from.

The Columbia Gorge outflow is going to be insane out here!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Great timing.

Side note.  Our furnace is over 50 years old and still working fine.  When we bought the house over 20 years ago the inspector called it a dead man walking.  They don't make em like they used to!

Oil or electric?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Oil or electric?

Natural gas.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

It has begun! Dr Yes!

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

These maps are the worst

I’ve never been too impressed with that model 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

Allow me to be the wet blanket this morning, a @Rubus Leucodermis if you will. There are a couple concerning things that make me think that the GFS might have been on to something.

Didn’t the GFS get extra obs data early Friday from the Northern Pacific? Later that day we saw our shift to solutions that we’d typically expect. In addition, all of these model “turn arounds” occurred during the weekend when there is a three part hit to accuracy; a drop in aircraft obs, a drop in initialization data, and a lack of human input.

I’m still holding out hopes for a good bust, but frankly it does not look good. The Euro just refuses to come around and the clock is ticking.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Missing Rob too 

When things get real juicy in the model world he prioritizes his time and mostly stays on his FB weather group. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Natural gas.

Climate change denier!! You are truly evil how could you?!

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m still holding out hopes for a good bust, but frankly it does not look good. The Euro just refuses to come around and the clock is ticking.

so now we're anti euro?  trying to decide which camp to join

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Don't spike the football at the 5 yard line!

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When things get real juicy in the model world he prioritizes his time and mostly stays on his FB weather group. 

He has t been around the Facebook group either. Might not be feeling well

[Chewbacca Defense]

30 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Nice! Snowing in Bozeman this morning as well. Looking like maybe 2-4" there by end of day. 

I've been in MN/WI over the past week where there is still ZERO snow on the ground. Pretty wild. Looks like I'll be heading home right before the Bozeman becomes the Arctic...again.

My son is headed there this weekend to see friends, looks like it will be pretty interesting weather-wise.  I think he flies in Thursday afternoon and back out Sunday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Natural gas.

They built those 50 years ago? 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Climate change denier!! You are truly evil how could you?!

snow eater 50mph SW winds are going to wipe out any snow we get tomorrow before the arctic air gets here, fyi