January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

What a joke. 

12z vs 00z Euro. 

 

At the rate we're going we'll be 150 degrees warmer by the time Friday evening gets here!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil's monstrous -NAO just sucks up our little Pacific block, killing support for a full on blast. Feared that might happen.

No, the pacific plows through what was already a spindly-looking GOA block. Actually unrelated to the -NAO.

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Friday 4 PM to 10 PM PDX drops from 35 to 24!

Too bad the warming aloft is so rapid, just like on the UKMET. 

 

850s cool off again later Saturday and it changes back to snow though

 

[snow_wizard]

Well how about that.  All three models are quite snowy for Seattle this weekend.  I like the ECMWF the best by far though.

[Requiem]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6

And of course it culminates with the east coast getting some snowstorm, that's always the endgame 

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX metro gets slammed with snow!

[lowlandsnow]

There is still hope maybe the ICON will verify

[Meatyorologist]

Aaaaaaand thar she goes.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Surface temps struggling to go below 20 on the Euro for Seattle. Definitely a step toward the GFS.

Personally not a fan of this run because of the complete lack of snow with the arctic front. But that's a detail to resolve when we get closer to the end of the week.

I’m starting to worry about lack of snow 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z EURO showing some snow Saturday. PDX in the low 20s at Saturday 4pm.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Too bad the warming aloft is so rapid, just like on the UKMET. 

 

850s cool off again later Saturday and it changes back to snow though

 

Yeah...evaporative cooling rapidly drops the 850s and 925s.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Everyone was saying gfs caved to euro earlier. They are meeting in the middle. 

As expected when the GFS deviated away from the other models few days ago. Look like a compromise soon but the progression on the Euro need to stop. 

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Well how about that.  All three models are quite snowy for Seattle this weekend.  I like the ECMWF the best by far though.

What? Very little snow for Seattle

[RayRay]

Should I try to get a semiconductor job in upper state New York just so I can experience snow?

[Parrot]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

This is new. Surface temps still cold 

Those 850s are hideous, Euro saying its pretty much over by the 13th??

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Everyone was saying gfs caved to euro earlier. They are meeting in the middle. 

This is factually correct, however compared to a day or two ago, things are heading much more towards what the GFS was showing. Along with the much more progressive pattern.

[lowlandsnow]

WINTER IS CANCELLED

[Requiem]

Is all of that precip snow or is it a dreaded mix/ice

[GHweatherChris]

Non event, let's try again for 2024-25

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

• Sick

[westcoastexpat]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well how about that.  All three models are quite snowy for Seattle this weekend.  I like the ECMWF the best by far though.

ECMWF is terrible for snow for Seattle. Basically nothing...

[Cloud]

These are not small trends. Massive steps. Oh well. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If this trend continues we might not get any cold in here. Laugh all you want at me, it's totally possible and has happened before. Could end up just a trickle out of the Fraser and Columbia leaving the sound above freezing 

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6

Greenland Polar Bear not having it

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m starting to worry about lack of snow 

Snow through Saturday night on the ECMWF.  I think a GFS / Euro blend could be really good for our area.  Want to stay away from ZR though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

This is new. Surface temps still cold 

As long as we can build a dam Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin we will be fine. The outflow is going to be crazy.

[SeanNyberg]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

What? Very little snow for Seattle

LOL that'll change.
Watch. That precip south will move up (it always does). Plus a few other snow makers that'll pop up over the next few days.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ronaldo  was hoping to return the rug but......

but he stole another....

Maybe you should try leaving a blanket outside for poor Ronaldo so he doesn't keep stealing rugs?

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If this trend continues we might not get any cold in here. Laugh all you want at me, it's totally possible and has happened before. Could end up just a trickle out of the Fraser and Columbia leaving the sound above freezing 

 

 

This thing is impotent. No juice 

[lowlandsnow]

Is the Graphcast out yet?

 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

No, the pacific plows through what was already a spindly-looking GOA block. Actually unrelated to the -NAO.

The -NAO block here looks like a PNW weather weenie getting bent over.

[Corncob]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

What? Very little snow for Seattle

It’s very normal for Seattle to show a snow hole like that.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Greenland Polar Bear not having it

Kona low still there.  That's usually an ace in the hole for us.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Snow to ice back to snow event. Lots of warm air advection with that system

[Snowlova]

I dont think things should trend warmer. GFS has been slowly cooling past couple days, or at least not getting worse.

 

Imagine everything switches back to how it was like 48 hrs out lol. Totally possible based on history

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another year, another marginal Arctic event. You’d think someday we’d get a full upper level blast again.

[RayRay]

Meanwhile in Hokkaido Japan… 48 hrs over 2 ft of snow

[BLI snowman]

00z Euro looks virtually identical to January 1998.

Still a chance however that it ends up more like February 1998.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

Greenland Polar Bear not having it

Looks like a polar bear on top with a seal underneath.