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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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Doinko Grand Master

Doinko

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Looks like a dream scenario for PDX on the UKMET:
Temps crash 16 degrees from Friday 4pm to Friday 10pm right as precip is approaching, then drops into the teens
sfct-imp.us_nw.png

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The big issue I see with the Dec 20, 2008 comparisons is the cold will be a lot less established here. May not matter too much for Portland if there's cold enough air in the gorge and the low takes the right track, but think we would probably need a bit better Arctic air penetration beforehand to make it happen.

I don’t think anyone is making a direct comparison. All we needed in that case was to flip the gradients which occurred very early on the 20th as the overriding began. The cold air was already staged in the basin.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The big issue I see with the Dec 20, 2008 comparisons is the cold will be a lot less established here. May not matter too much for Portland if there's cold enough air in the gorge and the low takes the right track, but think we would probably need a bit better Arctic air penetration beforehand to make it happen.

I don’t think anyone was comparing the two setups. Apples and oranges in many ways. Someone just asked when the last time there was a big zr to snow event.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

 

1 minute ago, Parrot said:

Floor?? That was the best case scenario. And you just jinxed it 

Sorry, but it looks pretty unavoidable at this point.

Worst case scenario is ice, best case scenario is lotsa snow. But it's definitely cumming.

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Doinko Grand Master

Doinko

Posted
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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a dream scenario for PDX on the UKMET:
Temps crash 16 degrees from Friday 4pm to Friday 10pm right as precip is approaching, then drops into the teens
sfct-imp.us_nw.png

Total snowfall
sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Doinko said:

Total snowfall
sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

Did that shift north from 12Z run?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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RaleighHillsRunner Proficient

RaleighHillsRunner

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yo, this weather forum meet up is happening on Thursday right? Got a babysitter and cancelled some meetings. Just wanted to make sure😂 @iFred @Meatyorologist @RentonHill

I heard there will be free t shirts and top shelf whiskey 

here you go portland trail blazers GIF by NBA

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Portland | Raleigh Hills/West Sylvan | 350’

”All models are wrong, some are useful.”

-G. Box

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AlTahoe Veteran

AlTahoe

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It's still really weird that the Euro has shown a strong cold front Saturday making it through the Sierra and the Gfs has nothing at the same time for multiple runs. One of the models is going to be very wrong and I would assume that  would have implications for everyone else. 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t think anyone was comparing the two setups. Apples and oranges in many ways. Someone just asked when the last time there was a big zr to snow event.

Gotcha. I probably missed some of the context. So many posts...

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A forum for the end of the world.

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Can’t remember any strong comparisons for a legit scenario where we go from a massive overrunning event into a strong cold pool pattern. 

January 1930 did it. Lingering cold pool definitely helped hold that crazy streak together. Big overrunning storms on the 14th-15th and 18th-19th with ice in the valley.

Edited by BLI snowman
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET for tomorrow

sn10_024h-imp.us_nw.png

 

Weekend

sn10_024h-imp.us_nw.png

 

Looks like the GEM.   Shifting north seems to have to have stopped in the models at least for now.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

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4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

You must have Fred on ignore. Tapster in SLU at 5pm

lol must’ve missed it…lot to read through here lately. The only person I have on ignore is that weird MR marine layer dude.

 If I can be there I’ll try and make it. I’ve been working a lot of 12-14 hour days recently. Leave for work at 5am and don’t get home til 7 or 8 at night. 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

It's still really weird that the Euro has shown a strong cold front Saturday making it through the Sierra and the Gfs has nothing at the same time for multiple runs. One of the models is going to be very wrong and I would assume that  would have implications for everyone else. 

Looks like forecast is for South Tahoe to get 6-12" by Thursday. Hopefully more over the weekend!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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ShawniganLake Grand Master

ShawniganLake

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the GEM.   Shifting north seems to have to have stopped in the models at least for now.  

I’d be feeling pretty good if I lived in the Puget sound right now.  Feels like this could be good around Seattle.  

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

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Ended up with 1 inch of snow and right as the snow was finishing up, my son wanted to go outside and play. Pulled my son to the local park on a sled, had a nice snowball fight, over did it on the sled got a little sick pulling going back and was lying down for just a minute but scared son into thinking I had hypothermia. Felt better and continued the snowball fight at home. It was fun! Now transitioning to rain.

IMG_20240108_181647350.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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Posted

Change to ice never happened up here in 2012 luckily…Just a bunch of snow! 


And I got bucket skids for my tractor bucket as a backup in case my mower plow has an issue. I will be able to plow with the tractor in the gravel without scraping the gravel.  The small mower is now 14yrs old and I have used the hell out of that machine, but it keeps on truckin. Just wanted extra insurance in case it were to go down! 

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IMG_1664.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

January 1930 did it. Lingering cold pool definitely helped hold that crazy streak together. Big overrunning storms on the 14th-15th and 18th-19th with ice in the valley.

What did that stretch look like for Seattle area?

A forum for the end of the world.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

UKMET precip for the weekend event 12z and 00z. Compare to the 12z Euro and then the 00z GFS and 00z GEM. 

Euro and UKMET are much more suppressed. GFS is the GFS and GEM is in between as far as how far north the precip goes but it goes full AR. 

qpf_048h-imp.us_nw.png

qpf_048h-imp.us_nw.png

qpf_048h-imp.us_nw.png

qpf_048h-imp.us_nw.png

qpf_048h-imp.us_nw.png

Thanks... great summary.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Olive1010 Proficient

Olive1010

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Sorry, but it looks pretty unavoidable at this point.

Worst case scenario is ice, best case scenario is lotsa snow. But it's definitely cumming.

Yo dude chill there

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Weather! Atmospheric conditions

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like a dream scenario for PDX on the UKMET:
Temps crash 16 degrees from Friday 4pm to Friday 10pm right as precip is approaching, then drops into the teens
sfct-imp.us_nw.png

Snow arrives right on schedule by Friday evening. Then the upper levels warm sometime Saturday morning to switch us over to ice but then right back to snow as the upper levels cool off again Saturday afternoon.

IMG_2633.thumb.png.bf9e5864467ecc391c4c8d815062db6f.png

IMG_2634.thumb.png.55e9a64440520fe32ee3ad66ff198400.png

IMG_2635.thumb.png.b73a17fa2767795196d82c1975b544e0.png

 

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

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Posted

Added the wrong photo. 1 inch here.

IMG_20240108_194400567.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Speaking of snow, it's still dumping down around Campbell River. Must be around 4~6" up there so far:

542.jpg

Pretty snowy around Nanaimo too. Inland areas on the east side of Vancouver Island sure don't need much to get a decent snowfall.

Slide 621

Seems like that whole area benefits from a rich man’s Forest Grove/Hood Canal affect.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Thursday 10pm to Friday 10pm
qpf_024h-imp.us_nw.png

Friday 10pm to Saturday 10pm
qpf_024h-imp.us_nw.png

Hopefully that is dead wrong 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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