January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[RCola]

So an undiscernable wobble on 18z GFS and Euro. Deadlock continues. The plot thickens.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Gosh that’s chilly! 

[Olive1010]

@Requiemwhat?

[TT-SEA]

Saturday morning.

[RentonHill]

00z runs will be telling 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Going to be slight northward shift which basically undoes the southward shift on the 12Z run.   This run looks like the 06Z run last night.

Good enough to call this a trend!!!!

 

[Darrington Troll]

Pretty bummed that western WA is not trending as snowy as we have learned to expect. Still plenty of time for the wobble to trend our way!

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

00z runs will be telling 

 

I do like how moist the Euro is with that system-- not exactly our usual anemic system moving into strong cold outflow 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow from Friday morning through Saturday morning per ECMWF.    And GFS for same period for comparison.  

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

00z runs will be telling 

 

How much snow falls in the 24 hrs up to that point?
Edit: Never mind @TT-SEAposted it, thanks

[RCola]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

00z runs will be telling 

 

I mean, how many times have we said that in the past week? If we're lucky, we'll see differences at 00z. Otherwise, America vs. the world continues.

[westcoastexpat]

59 minutes ago, iFred said:

We've seen rain get counted in those totals before as well. I think your earlier call for a trace at best is still the best call.

I think you're confusing me with someone else?

I would be shocked if there was trace. Except maybe for us Canadians lol

[Olive1010]

How much do y’all think it’ll snow tonight in the lowlands?

[GHweatherChris]

Precip from next system is showing up now, I think the precip shield spreads further north than modeled and a decent part of central/sw Washington sees some snow overnight.

 

Edited January 10 by GHweatherChris

[CloudJunkie]

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Pop quiz what do the NWS Portland use to determine their forecasts (hint it starts w an M and ends with an S)

Magic beans?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

23 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

I've heard from a NWS employee who shall remain anonymous, that while it is a great tool they are basically forced to forecast off of it. So situations like last February for Portland completely bust because they can't use their human touch on their official forecasts.

I remember a few years ago there was a news story about a proposal where forecasts were to be made at the national level, so that local mets would not be making the actual forecast, except when it is obvious it needs to be changed in the moment (I have seen that here in Leavenworth where it could have been rain or snow, and when it was snow, they made an adjustment in the forecast).

This sort of takes away local knowledge, though in the AFDs they sometimes talk about pattern recognition 

I also wonder if this was pertaining not to the zone area forecasts, but the automated city forecasts.  I have seen the automated city forecasts being completely different then the zone forecasts.

A few years ago we had a WSWarning, zone area forecast for 6-8 inches of snow with highs in the mid to upper 20s, but the Leavenworth city forecast was for rain and a high of 43.  Zone forecast was right, city was wrong.

Don't know if it ever happened though 

[SnowWillarrive]

Impotent arctic front

[ShawniganLake]

A question for our stats guys. Let’s say Portland scores big. 8-12” this week.   Have we ever had a winter where Portland got 12” and Bellingham basically gets skunked?  

[Winterdog]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This run is actually a small southward shift from the 00Z run last night.   

Yet at 90 hours the moisture plume on the 18Z Euro is much farther north than what the 12Z showed

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Olive1010 said:

How much do y’all think it’ll snow tonight in the lowlands?

Someone could get a couple inches of concrete if it all comes together just right. Probably above 200’ or so.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

A question for our stats guys. Let’s say Portland scores big. 8-12” this week.   Have we ever had a winter where Portland got 12” and Bellingham basically gets skunked?  

Don't know about an entire winter, but for singular events, probably.  Strong arctic fronts with strong winds will skunk Bellingham.

1989 is a classic example, and saw some of that with I think the 2nd arctic blast in December 1990.

Meanwhile areas south got a lot of snow.

[Doinko]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Don't know about an entire winter, but for singular events, probably.  Strong arctic fronts with strong winds will skunk Bellingham.

1989 is a classic example, and saw some of that with I think the 2nd arctic blast in December 1990.

Meanwhile areas south got a lot of snow.

I think Portland had a similar thing to Bellingham in 1989. Blasting gorge winds took away precip from the east side

[snow_wizard]

Perfect!

ECMWF and GFS moved toward each other on the 18z.  This might be really good.

[KingstonWX]

1 hour ago, SeanNyberg said:

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.

I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.

I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.

Oh man, it's been a while since I've seen one of your holier than thou spaz outs. Nice to see they aren't just reserved for Twitter anymore.

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

How much do y’all think it’ll snow tonight in the lowlands?

Not very much. But now we just wait and look outside soon! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Perfect!

ECMWF and GFS moved toward each other on the 18z.  This might be really good.

But the ECMWF is essentially unchanged from the 00Z run last night.   Seems like the aggressive 12Z run was the odd ball.  

[snow_wizard]

Just amazing how cold the models show it being when the snow comes into the picture from the big system.

[westcoastexpat]

Updated forecaster discussion from NWS Seattle

[GHweatherChris]

Something is wrong with Seattle NWS site...... they probably sabotaged it cuz they don't want nothing to do with forecasting the next 5 to 6 days lol!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But the ECMWF is essentially unchanged from the 00Z run last night.   Seems like the aggressive 12Z run was the odd ball.  

Yeah...the 0z will be very telling.  Potential is there for a great event here.  If it lines up just right SEA and PDX could both do well.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Something is wrong with Seattle NWS site...... they probably sabotaged it cuz they don't want nothing to do with forecasting the next 5 to 6 days lol!

Probably crashed due to high traffic.  Could be the wind also.

[westcoastexpat]

Latest Portland NWS forecaster discussion

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Something is wrong with Seattle NWS site...... they probably sabotaged it cuz they don't want nothing to do with forecasting the next 5 to 6 days lol!

Go get Rinaldo back dude.

[MossMan]

What are we all going to do with ourselves come Monday when this is all over??? 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Cloud said:

Go get Rinaldo back dude.

I can't find him, and the rug is missing, hoping he is just getting it steam cleaned.

[snow_wizard]

Two insane GFS runs now.  Single digits are new!

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Don't know about an entire winter, but for singular events, probably.  Strong arctic fronts with strong winds will skunk Bellingham.

1989 is a classic example, and saw some of that with I think the 2nd arctic blast in December 1990.

Meanwhile areas south got a lot of snow.

I’m sure it’s not uncommon at all for singular events.  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

What are we all going to do with ourselves come Monday when this is all over??? 

Start tracking the late January reload!

[MossMan]

On a normal I day I would still be at about 60%. 

[theRunner]

43 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Bold but possible prediction. 

Somewhere between Salem and Tacoma will get 18 inches of snow this weekend. Should be a wide area of 6-12.

If a landfall happens around Astoria the hood canal area could see 18-30 inches.

That would be epic... and would make this event historic no? From what I can find on the internet, Olympia's record daily snowfall was 14.2in in 1972