January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Clear trend to the south of the GFS. It's still significantly further north than all other guidance.
 

I would be beyond the moon happy if I got that 1 inch it’s now showing. 

[Timmy]

Crazy, gfs is trending warmer and gem, colder. Lots of model riding to come!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Prairiedog said:

IMHO the Valley ends where the Willy dumps into the Columbia R.  You've got the Lewis R.  LOL

The native name for the Lewis was the Cathlapotle. For the north fork at least. The east fork was called Yakhotle, from which the town of Yacolt (formerly on the Yakhotle Prairie) derived its name. Yakhotle translates to haunted valley or valley of lost children. Not sure why the natives gave that place such a creepy name.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Clear trend to the south of the GFS. It's still significantly further north than all other guidance.
 

It’s going to keep trending south but not to the point of the 00z EURO/UKMET. Not enough time for it trend that way. PDX is in a good spot right now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Crazy, gfs is trending warmer and gem, colder. Lots of model riding to come!

Is it actually trending warmer? Would be nice if some of these proclamations were backed up with maps.

[TacomaWx]

I Don’t trust the gfs. Anyways not a bad view here at work this morning. Accumulating snow 1000-1100’ it looks like. 

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

I may be buying a house down near that area!   Stayed in Estrella for a couple weeks in fact just recently.  Cool area and lots of fun hikes if you’re into that sort of thing.  Love the two lakes you can walk around locally as well!  Enjoy the cold! Scottsdale got snow the other day as well! 

Oh no kidding? It's a beautiful neighborhood. The clubhouses and pools are great during the summer. Didn't have it in the budget to put a pool in the backyard (though I did spring for a hot tub for Xmas), so the community pools are great. Just got my parents to relocate here as well. Grandkids have a lot of pull, or at least enough that he got my folks to leave Boise. 

Were you renting a place or do you know people down here?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

you can probably Kuchera those totals

Wow... I assumed the non Kuchera would be higher as it always is but not with really cold air.   Even more snow on the Kuchera! 

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Right now the GFS is the only model with a significant precip shield to the north and northeast of the low's. Even the NAM and GEM has largely abandoned that idea.

[Randyc321]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is a little faster with the arctic air tomorrow... but still takes until evening to go below freezing in Seattle.   

Arctic front snow and temps early Friday morning.    Guessing this is still too warm for Portland.

I knew they would squander their precious precip with warm temps.  We would have treated that precip right and turned it into snow.  

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Arctic front snow per 12Z GEM.  

This is my only hope…This could juice up a little more. 

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Is it actually trending warmer? Would be nice if some of these proclamations were backed up with maps.

You have access to the maps. I’m trying to get in a workout.  Gfs is warmer for sat and sun at least. Gem is a bit colder 

[umadbro]

Forecast for the Chiefs and Dolphins game on Sunday. That snow falls during game time.

[TacomaWx]

Seems like the gfs is the only model picking up on that secondary system for western Washington after the first snowfall. 

[TT-SEA]

As Andrew mentioned... 12Z GEM is significantly south of its 00Z run by Saturday.    I have no idea what to make of the GFS.   But it sure is stubborn.   I would be more inclined to believe it if the other models weren't still trending south.  

[Prairiedog]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The native name for the Lewis was the Cathlapotle. For the north fork at least. The east fork was called Yakhotle, from which the town of Yacolt (formerly on the Yakhotle Prairie) derived its name. Yakhotle translates to haunted valley or valley of lost children. Not sure why the natives gave that place such a creepy name.

That's very interesting. Thanks for sharing that.  

I just know that I catch a lot of salmon out front of the Lewis. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM doesn't even show snow with that precip moving through south of Portland on Saturday.

[FrozenBites]

As crazy as it seems, the Gfs may be seeing something that the other models aren't seeing. We went from superior cold 4 days ago to a moderation, led by the gfs. Can't discount it unfortunately. 

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, van city said:

Everyone is so focused on silly GFS. I think you should all root for the ICON. 

Oh dam reload!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Forecast for the Chiefs and Dolphins game on Sunday. That snow falls during game time.

That is awesome... must see TV right there.  

[RentonHill]

When it comes to over-water forecasting there's only one model i trust. 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... I assumed the non Kuchera would be higher as it always is but not with really cold air.   Even more snow on the Kuchera! 

 

Kuchera factors the predicted atmospheric parameters, so colder = more snow.  warm = less.  not the standard 10:1

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Oh dam reload!

That setup would really mess up our low level cold potential down here. Basically take us back to square one.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That setup would really mess up our low level cold potential down here. Basically take us back to square one.

Aww boo hoo

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That setup would really mess up our low level cold potential down here. Basically take us back to square one.

You mean, after you guys get all the snow in round 1? Dont want to share the goods now??

[Blizzard777]

4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Oh no kidding? It's a beautiful neighborhood. The clubhouses and pools are great during the summer. Didn't have it in the budget to put a pool in the backyard (though I did spring for a hot tub for Xmas), so the community pools are great. Just got my parents to relocate here as well. Grandkids have a lot of pull, or at least enough that he got my folks to leave Boise. 

Were you renting a place or do you know people down here?

Dog gone…I remembered one of our weather forum folks moving to the valley in Az but i forgot who. .  I would have hit you up for the tour of the clubhouse!  They wouldn’t let me in .  I did an Airbnb with pool!!!  It was sweet! 
If this plays out I will definitely have a pool added ! 
I’m a bit jealous you’re there! 
We’re also looking at Verrado as well….actually anywhere around you.  Great investment right now! 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, clipper_range said:

As crazy as it seems, the Gfs may be seeing something that the other models aren't seeing. We went from superior cold 4 days ago to a moderation, led by the gfs. Can't discount it unfortunately. 

I also think the GFS was the first model to pick up on the low yesterday that brought all the wind.   Definitely cannot discount the GFS now just due to its stubbornness.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GRAF has the cold air reach Astoria via the east winds. They get below freezing Friday evening with 2.1” snow through Saturday morning. At the same time Salem also gets below freezing but it’s just ice for them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Is it actually trending warmer? Would be nice if some of these proclamations were backed up with maps.

It actually is pretty lame, but nothing compared to any other model, probably off from its ensembles too. GEM is wicked cold. 

[Timmy]

Do we have any analogs for Tim going against the euro? Should be a fun weekend

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I also think the GFS was the first model to pick up on the low yesterday that brought all the wind.   Definitely cannot discount the GFS now just due to its stubbornness.  

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Aww boo hoo

Just an observation. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z GRAF has the cold air reach Astoria via the east winds. They get below freezing Friday evening with 2.1” snow through Saturday morning. At the same time Salem also gets below freezing but it’s just ice for them.

Great to see the cold air getting down the valley so quick even on an outlier north model like the GRAF.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, Blizzard777 said:

Dog gone…I remembered one of our weather forum folks moving to the valley in Az but i forgot who. .  I would have hit you up for the tour of the clubhouse!  They wouldn’t let me in .  I did an Airbnb with pool!!!  It was sweet! 
If this plays out I will definitely have a pool added ! 
I’m a bit jealous you’re there! 
We’re also looking at Verrado as well….actually anywhere around you.  Great investment right now! 

 

Verrado is nice too, but it's a much different feel than Estrella. You'd kinda have to spend a lot of time in both to figure out what you prefer. 

But yes, next time you are down, let me know and I can get you the exclusive tour

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It actually is pretty lame, but nothing compared to any other model, probably off from its ensembles too. GEM is wicked cold. 

I looked at the surface temps and it looked pretty much the same as the 06z. Trending warmer can mean a lot of different things.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Timmy said:

Do we have any analogs for Tim going against the euro? Should be a fun weekend

 

Honestly have no idea.   I fully expected the GFS to cave this morning and now its making me think it might not cave.

[FrozenBites]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Do we have any analogs for Tim going against the euro? Should be a fun weekend

 

Brilliant

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Arctic front snow per 12Z GEM.  

I’ll take my .7 

[Timmy]

First look at the gefs looks a little further south and more light on precip at hour 78

[RentonHill]