January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Doinko]

UKMET is frigid for PDX. Teens Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Very dry though

[RentonHill]

Are the PDX folks gonna have their own meetup on Friday?? Or is there just too much love lost down there…if PDX scores big time I’ll drive down a box of shirts to one of y’all 

[iFred]

Reminder - We have a Seattle area meetup tomorrow at Tapster in South Lake Union. Plenty of parking, easy to get in and out of the city, and decent drinks. 21 and over. Event is from 5pm to 7pm. If fewer than five people show up, I'll cancel all snow events.

[Mid Valley Duck]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All GEFS members for Saturday.

Interestingly some shifted way north from 00Z run.   Like #19 which looked like the GEM on the 00Z run and now looks like the GFS from yesterday morning.   Crazy.   This is definitely not decided yet.

Slightly miss leading because even some of the far south ones dont give snow down the Willamette Valley. The easiest way to see the southern shift in the overall guidance is the 24 precip map. The GFS is still insistent on Seattle getting snow, just my opinion, I think north of Olympia will be dry.

[FrozenBites]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It would be awesome for the arctic front to leave a few inches for western Wa and then the bigger batch move in south so everyone would have a prize. That would be perfect and be colder longer leaving the door open for even more snow like 2008 and other examples like that. I'm always scared of a last minute north trend that will fry all of us.

We've had copious amounts of North trends at last minute. I'm with you on that statement. The North end is always a good bet when cold interacts w/ moisture.

[Mid Valley Duck]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET looks south as well

Way south.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

UKMET is frigid for PDX. Teens Saturday and Sunday. Very dry though

Back door blast reload next Monday.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Odds are for the south solution but we have been burnt by this so many times i lost count.

Things could definitely come back north to a certain extent if the Arctic push out of BC isn’t as strong as projected. Seems like these things always end up being delayed or watered down a bit once things start moving. 

[Tyler Mode]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Are the PDX folks gonna have their own meetup on Friday?? Or is there just too much love lost down there…if PDX scores big time I’ll drive down a box of shirts to one of y’all 

No, unexpected snow will have most streets impassable.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET is frigid for PDX. Teens Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Very dry though

-15c 850s down to Salem, that would be very nice. Highs in the 20s for Eugene as well

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given the Willamette River flows into the Columbia south of you, I would say NO. 

It's funny also because @umadbro the rest of Washington considers Clark County to basically be Portland.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Things could definitely come back north to a certain extent if the Arctic push out of BC isn’t as strong as projected. Seems like these things always end up being delayed or watered down a bit once things start moving. 

I'd love to see this arctic trough get pissed off and hit the nitro button, been since 1990 for me to see a real arctic front get angry!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

UKMET is frigid for PDX. Teens Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Very dry though

Insane. I saw the NBM has sub-25 highs at PDX Saturday-Monday. I am getting January 1996 vibes from this. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

All eyes on the 12z EURO and GC now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

GOING TO BE A DRY ONE!

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Insane. I saw the NBM has sub-25 highs at PDX Saturday-Monday. I am getting January 1996 vibes from this. 

Maybe we could go back to the regional blast scenario

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Insane. I saw the NBM has sub-25 highs at PDX Saturday-Monday. I am getting January 1996 vibes from this. 

How was that one, I don;t remember.

[Mid Valley Duck]

UKMET is about 350 miles south of the GFS and 100 miles south of the GEM with the low at hour 78.

GFS

UKMET

GEM

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Back door blast reload next Monday.

Incredible!

[SnarkyGoblin]

30 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Do we have any analogs for Tim going against the euro? Should be a fun weekend

 

I swore last winter the gfs led the major events we had.  Euro was out to lunch and I thought about rubbing Tim's nose in it but decided not to act like a 12 year old.

But this time it feels like the gfs is out to lunch. =\

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd love to see this arctic trough get pissed off and hit the nitro button, been since 1990 for me to see a real arctic front get angry!

Right now it looks pretty potent. If it seems like it’s slow moving south though…then things may change. I think the Arctic front is going to be more interesting than forecasted tomorrow. My girlfriend asked me earlier what my snow prediction was and i said for the next few days 0-2” 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

GOING TO BE A DRY ONE!

Lol Fred is getting closer and closer to banning you I swear

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Right now it looks pretty potent. If it seems like it’s slow moving south though…then things may change. I think the Arctic front is going to be more interesting than forecasted tomorrow. My girlfriend asked me earlier what my snow prediction was and i said for the next few days 0-2” 

2 inches would be a major win for us. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Incredible!

Shows some -30s in Oregon

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

2 inches would be a major win for us. 

I just mean 2” is the ceiling IMO from Thursday-Sunday everything total. Could be 0 also. 

[iFred]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol Fred is getting closer and closer to banning you I swear

Yes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

Shows some -30s in Oregon

That checks out. Especially because E. Oregon is getting nuked with snow this week. 

[Phishy Wx]

SREFs are still cold AF, maybe a tic colder

[icyasf]

Rain/snow mix right now!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

SREFs are still cold AF, maybe a tic colder

Think you'll pull off a sub-zero high? 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That checks out. Especially because E. Oregon is getting nuked with snow this week. 

I definitely won't be mad if the UKMET is right, at face value it looks like the best blast of this century at least for PDX

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Right now it looks pretty potent. If it seems like it’s slow moving south though…then things may change. I think the Arctic front is going to be more interesting than forecasted tomorrow. My girlfriend asked me earlier what my snow prediction was and i said for the next few days 0-2” 

Sounds close, I expect some places with the arctic trough to get a foot. The Port angles area will get hammered.

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Right now it looks pretty potent. If it seems like it’s slow moving south though…then things may change. I think the Arctic front is going to be more interesting than forecasted tomorrow. My girlfriend asked me earlier what my snow prediction was and i said for the next few days 0-2” 

That’s about right.  Can’t wait  for the timelapse from my nest cam as it drops through.  Couple hours of mayhem and winter wonderland changeover,  I think I’ve only experienced one boring outbreak where nothing happened .  All the rest had a great initial punch!  I do remember one stalling briefly over my area to give me a bonus round…..around 4inches.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing on radar right now, but it's been flurrying all morning, Temp hanging at 31. Probably will have a midnight high of 34 today. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

UKMET is about 350 miles south of the GFS and 100 miles south of the GEM with the low at hour 78.

GFS

UKMET

GEM

It’s amazing but then again we’re dealing with these systems developing out over the remote ocean. Just not enough data out there compared to over land. Those solutions should tighten up though as we get closer to the event. That’s why I sort of like what the GraphCast shows. It meets in the middle. It uses historical data as part of its algorithm. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

GOING TO BE A DRY ONE!

You are legendary for the whining you have done through the years here man, You live in a snowy climate and we don't. Do you see why we don't want to see this bullshitt?

[Tyler Mode]

Arctic air moving through Glacier NP right now.  The lake was calm an hour ago.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty amazing how the GEM manages to bone just about everyone.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Arctic air moving through Glacier NP right now.  The lake was calm an hour ago.

Is that fog from the temp difference??

[Tyler Mode]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Is that fog from the temp difference??

Right on the lake yes, I think a lot is clouds/snow in the distance though.