January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, van city said:

I compare 00Z run to 12Z run.   18Z ICON is notoriously goofy.  

[Doinko]

Just now, Requiem said:

Wouldn't pay attention to the ICON's precip type right now, at face value that's all snow 

Ah okay, looks like a pretty crazy storm if it verifies though.

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Wouldn't pay attention to the ICON's precip type right now, at face value that's all snow 

Good call, ICON is horrible with precip type.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Talk about a crazy ride.

Gfs will hold or maybe go south a little I'd guess and Euro will click north for a seaside to Astoria landing probably. That should still work for Portland area and a bunch of other places.

 

[TT-SEA]

At the very least a mass compromise is underway which makes sense given how close this event is now.   Or could also be the start of a continued northward trend.  

The 00Z GFS will be very interesting.   And we only have to wait a few minutes!  

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

At this point give me some flakes flying in a  brisk north wind and I’ll take it. 

Hopefully with some Arctic front SNOW on the ground 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Talk about a crazy ride.

Gfs will hold or maybe go south a little I'd guess and Euro will click north for a seaside to Astoria landing probably. That should still work for Portland area and a bunch of other places.

 

If I had to bet... this the way I would lean as well.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

GFS is set to kick off in the next ten minutes. Odds are the southern trend on the GFS continues. 

[MikeInEverett]

If this is a start of a continued northward trend, it would make people that threw out the GFS look extremely silly.

[van city]

RGEM stays south. 

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Good call, ICON is horrible with precip type.

Stupidly stingy with snow.   If the ICON shows snow you can guarantee precip type won't be an issue and if it shows ZR its probably snow.  

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here is the 00Z ICON snowfall 🌨

[Requiem]

If I had to guess I would say around Pacific City for general low position 

[Weiner Warrior]

Just now, Ken in Wood Village said:

Here is the 00Z ICON snowfall 🌨

That would be nice for Portland!

[TT-SEA]

If the 00Z GFS trends north then it's probably leading the way.

[Parrot]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the 00Z GFS trends north then it's probably leading the way.

We need to keep wishcasting until it becomes reality

[GHweatherChris]

GFS is gonna come in around Redding.

[Randyc321]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could just be models coming into agreement... it’s just about exactly the same as the ECMWF now.    

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could just be models coming into agreement... its just about exactly the same as the ECMWF now.    

 

 

Tim when has a winter storm not moved in the models for almost  48 hrs?

Are you saying this is the solution that sticks till the storm?  I don’t believe it yet.   
Asking for a friend.  

[Requiem]

If I am to fathom a guess GFS comes in slightly more south and then pretty much holds 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Parrot said:

We need to keep wishcasting until it becomes reality

I have been, I have a better than 50% success rate.

[MossMan]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

GFS is gonna come in around Redding.

Ocean Shores. 

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the 00Z GFS trends north then it's probably leading the way.

As we have said literally every day the last ten days, this is going to be the most important run ever

[TacomaWx]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

I have been, I have a better than 50% success rate.

[van city]

If this is what Seattle people are chearing on. Well done. High and dry and no cold. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, van city said:

If this is what Seattle people are chearing on. Well done. High and dry and no cold. 

I haven't even been looking at the upper levels but moderation has been the theme today.  

[TT-SEA]

It would hilarious if the GFS failed to run tonight.  

[Requiem]

Fwiw (likely not much), the FV3 came in way south of its 12z but in accordance with today's model suite.

[Winterdog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I haven't even been looking at the upper levels but moderation has been the theme today.  

The 0Z NAM is colder than the 18Z at the surface anyway

[van city]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I haven't even been looking at the upper levels but moderation has been the theme today.  

It's screwed the whole pattern. From slider to cold rain on this run. 

[umadbro]

GFS should come in around Sacramento and the EURO will probably come in around Juneau.

[TT-SEA]

@ShawniganLake  I am losing faith in the RDPS! 

 

[Weiner Warrior]

GFS definitely looks North already. It's happening

[FroYoBro]

Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

GFS definitely looks already. It's happening

It looks

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

@ShawniganLake  I am losing faith in the RDPS! 

 

It has its place. It is pretty decent for surface level details at close range. Not too great beyond 48 hrs IMO.

[Cold Snap]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the 00Z GFS trends north then it's probably leading the way.

I have a feeling it trends south but we will see.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Shame to see the arctic airmass falling apart 

[Weiner Warrior]

A little snow in the air up North

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

GFS definitely looks North already. It's happening

Based on the Hour 18 frame, pretty obvious the low is going to Pacific City. 

[Requiem]

Cold air slightly quicker this run 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Requiem said:

Cold air slightly quicker this run 

Seeing the same thing.   Might be a slight southward shift.   Might.   Who knows though??