January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wherever this hits it will be one of the most potant snow storms to hit the northwest in 50 years minimum 

 Remember I said it first. There will be over 18 inch totals from this.

Jan 2012 did that. Near Centralia.

[Sandy rocks]

Portland had two feet in 2008 so not that many years since we had a large storm and downtown Portland had 18 inches in 2017.

[GobBluth]

Just now, Doinko said:

Wow, the GRAF showing 56 mph gusts here

Has Cedar Mills ever over performed like that in a winter east wind situation?

[Dave]

I'm simply not optimistic about this situation at all for the south valley. Most of the models don't show much snow, but some of them show a shittload of ice. Seems like a no win dealio. I do think that some areas of the WV will get a really nice event though, possibly historic. Just not Eugene.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm surprised the OR folks aren't lighting this place up tonight.

Not many OR/SW WA folks compared to WA folks. And it’s been a long week of model riding. 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Oregon posters are giving the Washington posters a moment of silence on the loss of their exciting weekend. 

SW WA will be happy to represent the state with pride this weekend. 

[Doinko]

Just now, GobBluth said:

Has Cedar Mills ever over performed like that in a winter east wind situation?

We sometimes get similar gusts to areas east of I-205 in certain situations like this. I've never experienced that strong east winds but they do get strong sometimes

[GobBluth]

Just now, Doinko said:

We sometimes get similar gusts to areas east of I-205 in certain situations like this. I've never experienced that strong east winds but they do get strong sometimes

Downed trees and power lines when everyone needs their furnace running. Uh oh.

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, RayRay said:

What time does the arctic air start coming in tomorrow?

Probably 11-noon up around Bellingham.  5-7pm to seattle

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, the GRAF showing 56 mph gusts here

Wow that’s higher than me!  Poor Hazel Dell.

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, the GRAF showing 56 mph gusts here

I recall winds similarly strong December 2008 and January 2004

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

Portland had two feet in 2008 so not that many years since we had a large storm and downtown Portland had 18 inches in 2017.

That was a few storms, this is one long storm.

It's going to cause a ton of issues and crush the area.

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

At hour 48, Euro is slightly more aggressive with cold air compared to last night's 0z.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow, the GRAF showing 56 mph gusts here

That 5 is a perfect example of why I prefer the western side of Clark County! We'll still get the CAA bleed out from the outflow, maybe just a couple degrees warmer. 

[Sandy rocks]

I was living in Gresham in 2008. We lost power for a day when it was raging outside and temperatures in the low 20's or less. The winds were whipping then too. I have to say since moving to Sandy I don't miss the wind although we still have some.

[lowlandsnow]

This run looks a little farther south 

[Weiner Warrior]

[Sandy rocks]

2017 was one storm. It stalled over downtown Portland. 

[westcoastexpat]

7 minutes ago, theRunner said:

Are the odds still extremely low for Seattle to get anything out of this?

00Z ICON showing 6"+ for Seattle

GFS has members of nearly a foot of snow

GEM showing snow along the Arctic front 

These set ups are always difficult for the models to resolve, but typically end up snowier especially further north than advertised. It will feel very wintry and in January of all months. 

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

This run looks a little farther south 

Nope pretty similar

[snow_wizard]

Way more juice in the northern blob on this run.  Not sure it will mean anything, but it might.

[Perturbed Member]

00z Euro is looking a bit south so far. 

[MikeInEverett]

00z Euro looking a bit north so far.

[Requiem]

Looking wet as well 

[Weiner Warrior]

Conflicting reports!!

[Doinko]

Just now, Requiem said:

Looking wet as well 

Yeah definitely more precip for Saturday

[westcoastexpat]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Way more juice in the northern blob on this run.  Not sure it will mean anything, but it might.

And we know that snow shield will definitely reach further north. It often does in these circumstances.

Seattle absolutely still in play.

[Perturbed Member]

Ok, stronger for sure. 

[SnowWillarrive]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I suppose people might just be resting up before the big time stuff stuff about to happen.

We been all burned out by the southern trends. Hard to get excited. 

[snow_wizard]

Well I'll be dipped.  Another move north on the ECMWF in spite of being colder than the 18z.

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Jan 2012 did that. Near Centralia.

It’s kind of hard to put a number on a snowstorm ranking unless you are looking at a specific location.  
Years that the 18” mark was probably hit at some lowland location that come to my mind  

Dec 1996, Nov 2006, Dec 2007, Dec 2008, Jan 2012, Jan 2017, Feb 2019

 

 

 

 

[Tanis Leach]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Oregon posters are giving the Washington posters a moment of silence on the loss of their exciting weekend. 

And chaps playing in the background. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

We been all burned out by the southern trends. Hard to get excited. 

We have a shot at 1 to 3 inches tomorrow night though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Way more juice in the northern blob on this run.  Not sure it will mean anything, but it might.

Snow reaches PDX by Saturday morning. 

[Blizzard777]

102 members online like normal.  Oregon folks may just be in initial shock trying process what is favored to happen.  Once digested we will be photo bombed!!!

[Cloud]

Storm is packing a bit more oomph. 

[Parrot]

21 minutes ago, theRunner said:

Are the odds still extremely low for Seattle to get anything out of this?

Yes. 0"-trace, maybe an inch tops if somone gets lucky with a brief convergence band. 

[DaneTrain]

Cold Air

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Well I'll be dipped.  Another move north on the ECMWF in spite of being colder than the 18z.

Models always overdo the CAA advancement. Usually progresses slower than advertised. Fully expect the cold to not be as deeply south once the moisture arrives. Certainly lots of moisture to work with.

[Blizzard777]

Just now, Blizzard777 said:

102 members online like normal.  Oregon folks may just be in initial shock trying process what is favored to happen.  Once digested we will be photo bombed!!!

Here’s a photo I took 3 years ago in a blizzard !!! It was nuts 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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