January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[DeepFriedEgg]

Bruh how are TTD and PDX still at 21. Every station around them is like 3-5F cooler

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Yeah, how do models even get a read on current 850mb temps? IR satellite or something?

Mainly ACARS data from airplanes that fly through it, and weather balloons, afaik. Both of which are few and far between in the hours before the 6z runs, especially on a Friday. So if any set of runs are going to have a bad batch of atmospheric data, it's going to be a 6z on a weekend night.

[Perturbed Member]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not to warm nose their enthusiasm, but their rationale is a little iffy. The CAA is pretty much on schedule and mainly below about 3,000 feet, give or take. Doesn’t have much of an effect on the 850mb level where things are expected to get a bit dicey. 

Fortunately, aside from the nasty NAM the WAA doesn't really look too horrific on most the models IMO. Sleet will be involved for parts of this in some of the metro but I'd be surprised if it actually derailed legit snowfall the way the 06z NAM is showing. 

The soundings on the Euro and GFS show a really modest warm layer compared to some of our previous sleet events. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

You might be right, but my read on what they were saying is that the air mass as a whole is more robust than modeled, including the 850mb levels over us right now. I understood their statement to be that it isn't that the CAA at the lower levels will overrule the warm nose, but rather that the existing cold we have at the mid levels is deeper than anticipated and won't be kicked into the next dimension as easily as some of the models seem to want to do. Could just be huffing pure copium here though, I dunno.

They could be right I suppose, but 850mb temps are just about where models had us at 09z. Generally about -3c to -5c over the metro area.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Fortunately, aside from the nasty NAM the WAA doesn't really look too horrific on most the models IMO. Sleet will be involved for parts of this in some of the metro but I'd be surprised if it actually derailed legit snowfall the way the 06z NAM is showing. 

The soundings on the Euro and GFS show a really modest warm layer compared to some of our previous sleet events. 

NAM seems to fail to give us any wet bulb assistance, while the GFS goes pretty crazy with it and cools the 850-900mb level pretty effectively. Looks to be the biggest difference.

[SpaceRace22]

Fwiw, the HRRR says the 06z NAM is out to lunch and keeps the warm nose entirely south of the city of Portland still, for the most part.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

16/4 today. Wild.

[The Blob]

Gusts are around 40mph at work in TTD.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

BOOM!! Freezing in downtown Springfield.

[Jbolin]

KRTX is back online for those of you eager to track some diamond dust.  

[The Blob]

[snow_wizard]

12.7 now.  Incredible for a windy night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 23 now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 30 at EUG, 23 Albany, 21 Salem, PDX has finally cracked the teens with a 19! 

Down to 21 here. 

[FroYoBro]

Randomly woke up and went outside to check it out. Definitely breezy now and real cold. 19 degrees and nothing falling from the sky yet. 

[Jbolin]

A balmy 13⁰ here  

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA only hitting 15 tonight, then bumping back up to 16 and staying there, is a real gut punch

backdoor blasts mean more wind, and no transition away from the boundary layer and its associated high clouds. 

ah well. coldest low in 14 years. still a shot at a sub 20 high if we get freaky lucky tomorrow. can't complain about everything

[Tanis Leach]

19.6 in Sherwood and snowing. Roads already have a dusting. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Check that out everyone look at the shield of precipitation which I believe is SNOW

[Ken in Wood Village]

The NWS upped the snow totals

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

The NWS upped the snow totals

Goddamn, we are so "snow poor" that info like this makes us giddy like a six y/o.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Look at that beautiful baby starting to come to the PNW isn't she beautiful I'm surprised that with the amount of cloud shield, that there isn't any moisture in those clouds like the models are showing I'm thinking the models are wrong and this will be a regional weather event for the whole PNW

[Ken in Wood Village]

Some very light precipitation from just South of Portland down past to almost Eugene. It's showing green further South but I'm hoping it will be snow for you all

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Current temps as of 3am. Spokane leading the way at -8. Many locations in the teens at PDX Metro. Currently 17 here with strong east winds. Snow is about to reach PDX Metro.

[Dave]

30 degrees with light freezing rain. Everything elevated has a nice glaze on it, but the pavement is still clear. A couple of degrees colder would be a problem.

[Tanis Leach]

New video out, and getting more aggresive with snow totals (though not as aggresive as some here): 

Technical info: the snow totals assume only snow, with about 0.6 inches of precip at PDX. I just don't see how most of PDX metro goes to sleet. Soundings would support snow, my ice zones rules would support snow (given Gorge outflow), and the speeds of the wind gusts just make me feel the cold is too deep. 

 

Also, imagine if we had another 12 hours for this to setup (like 1968, 1989, etc).

 

[Tanis Leach]

Longview area just got upgraded to a winter storm warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
309 AM PST Sat Jan 13 2024

ORZ005-WAZ022-140115-
/O.UPG.KPQR.WW.Y.0005.240113T1500Z-240114T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KPQR.WS.W.0003.240113T1500Z-240114T0600Z/
Lower Columbia-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-
Including the cities of St. Helens, Clatskanie, Longview, Kelso,
and Castle Rock
309 AM PST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches. Heaviest accumulations likely to be around and south of
  Kalama.

* WHERE...In Oregon, Lower Columbia. In Washington, I-5 Corridor
  in Cowlitz County.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[Tanis Leach]

They also upgrade Vancouver to 4 to 9 inches (hmm, sounds familiar), and PDX to 3 to 8. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

New video out, and getting more aggresive with snow totals (though not as aggresive as some here): 

Technical info: the snow totals assume only snow, with about 0.6 inches of precip at PDX. I just don't see how most of PDX metro goes to sleet. Soundings would support snow, my ice zones rules would support snow (given Gorge outflow), and the speeds of the wind gusts just make me feel the cold is too deep. 

 

Also, imagine if we had another 12 hours for this to setup (like 1968, 1989, etc).

 

Most of PDX Metro will be all snow. Maybe some sleet extreme south Metro but that’s about it. 8”-16” snow is my forecast.

[SunAndSnow]

29 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Some very light precipitation from just South of Portland down past to almost Eugene. It's showing green further South but I'm hoping it will be snow for you all

19 and we’re getting some flurries with that band!

[Ken in Wood Village]

5 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

19 and we’re getting some flurries with that band!

Looks like a heavier precipitation is knocking on your doorstep

[FroYoBro]

18 degrees with light snow. Today should be fun!

[Meatyorologist]

Wow. Portland is gonna get crushed. Yeah I'm jealous but consider that a good thing, that just means y'all have a great storm comin

WA posters haver relished in the goods for a few years now, time to spread the love... Except to Eugene for some reason. That town is cursed. Sorry Tiger.

[Blizzard777]

Just woke to take a peek as I’m concerned for my daughter in Tigard.  Future cast has this beast changing away from snow later on in the morning .   I so hope this is wrong

 

[HuskyMaestro]

16F with a wind chill of 7. Definitely the coldest I’ve felt in years when I opened the D**n door to let my dogs out just now Hope the midweek system delivers some phat snow for WA. 

[GHweatherChris]

 DEFORMATION, SCOOT NORTH!!

[Blizzard777]

14* here 

time for a little more shut eye 

[Meatyorologist]

RGEM has a more classic inversion tomorrow night with the low level Arctic airmass remaining in place while the upper levels warm. Could be a way to sneak in another try tomorrow night.

[Ken in Wood Village]

The shield of moisture is getting larger down South and it's moving North

[Dave]

29 degrees. Precip has noticeably picked up. Everything other than the pavement has been ice cubed. My car won't be moving anywhere anytime soon. It would take some effort to dethaw it. Fuckkk. Pavement and puddles are still ice free though at least.