January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[GHweatherChris]

Annnnnnnd........ LAME!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Ecm

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

That thing is gonna make landfall on the S. Oregon coast. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That thing is gonna make landfall on the S. Oregon coast. 

Think so for real?   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Gunna be tight

[SpaceRace22]

Super bummed that the precip type and timing aligned so poorly for most of PDX today, sorry guys. We've got a solid 5" now up here and it's still coming down pretty good, so I'm content, but I would have loved to see something more regional.

The deformation band is starting to sag south now, so fingers crossed that the rest of Portland can squeak out a quick inch or two from its last gasps at least. The HRRR suggests there may still be a bit of precip that makes its way back down there.

[Olive1010]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

Super bummed that the precip type and typing aligned so poorly for most of PDX today, sorry guys. We've got a solid 5" now up here and it's still coming down pretty good, so I'm content, but I would have loved to see something more regional.

The deformation band is starting to sag south now, so fingers crossed that the rest of Portland can squeak out a quick inch or two from its last gasps at least. The HRRR suggests there may still be a bit of precip that makes its way back down there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So if you go back to last Wednesday 12z run where did euro have today's low placement?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Think so for real?   

It's possible. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That thing is gonna make landfall on the S. Oregon coast. 

Brookings?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That thing is gonna make landfall on the S. Oregon coast. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Goes right over my roof! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MossMan said:

Goes right over my roof! 

This track would work for me and you but it would be close here

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So if you go back to last Wednesday 12z run where did euro have today's low placement?

Best I can do... trend is definitely good!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Brookings?

Ideally. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So if you go back to last Wednesday 12z run where did euro have today's low placement?

The 12z GFS this past Tuesday had today’s low way up north. It trended way south as we got closer to today’s event.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Best I can do... trend is definitely good!  

The low that is effecting Oregon right now where did the euro show it would.be from last Wednesday 12z run. 

I'm trying to see who had today's landfall the closest from a few days away. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The low that is effecting Oregon right now where did the euro show it would.be from last Wednesday 12z run. 

I'm trying to see who had today's landfall the closest from a few days away. 

Euro was closest 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The low that is effecting Oregon right now where did the euro show it would.be from last Wednesday 12z run. 

I'm trying to see who had today's landfall the closest from a few days away. 

Those loops are lost on WB.  But totally different situation anyways.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The difference with Wednesdays low is there won't be forcing like we had with today's low so.it should definitely be further north than today's low. The current track the euro has is a popular one. Seen it happen many times.

[OysterPrintout]

The weather nerd part of me is fascinated at how none of the models were very accurate for accumulations. Just goes to show what a razor thin on the margins event it was for snow totals .

[TT-SEA]

The track of the low today was entirely dependent on the strength of this arctic blast.  That is not a factor on Wednesday. 

[The Cats Meow]

25 minutes ago, Snowdome said:

They still got crushed, just by wind and sleet instead of snow. Big trees down everywhere 

Oh sorry.  That's not good.

Power outages and damage with cold is no fun.

[TT-SEA]

For additional reference... here is the 850mb loop through Wednesday morning per 18Z ECMWF. 

The potential snowstorm on Wednesday has no dependency on the current arctic air in place.  This air mass will be heading for Phil by then.   It would be a system that would rely on dynamic cooling with heavy precip and dead gradients on the north side of the low.   In other words... the surface temps in Seattle on Monday and Tuesday are irrelevant.   But those days do make a major ice storm unlikely.  

[GHweatherChris]

22 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Annnnnnnd........ LAME!

Bump

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I feel like the models did pretty good for my town. I got just about 3” of sleet and temps were just a little colder than forecasted. 

[ajreich]

Well! That was quite the event  Though we didn't end up with the snow amounts I would've hoped, this was still one of the most memorable winter weather events I've had. The combination of wind and cold is really exceptional in my experience; the type of stuff you'd expect in the NE, not here! The duration of cold and wind is also impressive - both have been sustained throughout the day. We're in the SW hills at 600 feet.

Our high for the day was 16.5 at midnight, low of 10.2 degrees around 2:45 pm. Currently it is 11.1 degrees, so we've had 9 hours below 12 degrees. That is just exceptional back to 1990 (which I don't remember details of too well since I was only 6!) I'd assume we stay at roughly this temp through tomorrow AM, and a lot of stuff is going to freeze. I want to check out the pond and Laurelhurst park on Monday to see if its frozen over - I don't think its done that since 1990 or 1992.

Peak wind gust was 36.7 mph - wind gauge is about 6ft off the ground, so gusts higher up in the trees were even greater. Since about 10pm last night, we've had consistent wind gusts above 15 mph, with regular gusts consistently above 20 mph since 12pm today. Windchill has been consistently below zero since 9 am. Winds are still going strong! 

Currently, looks like about 2-3 inches of mixed precipitation, though the snow is so dry it's hard to tell what's snow and what's sleet. Enough to make the grass and streets white up here  Though in wind-exposed areas, it's all dry ground. Some of the larger drifts are 6-8 inches deep.

HRRR shows maybe a lucky inch or two between now and midnight, but even if we don't seen any more snow, today was a great weather day and one of my top 5 storms. My favorite video of the day below.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Sort of a close call. Even I would prefer it to trend south a bit.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I went back and looked from Wednesday and the euro had today about 5-10 degrees to warm on average for today. 3 days ago none of the models were that close for today's low. Cmc did ok. Gfs and euro were way off. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I just learned that one of the two water lines to my kitchen sink now contains water in its solid state.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, ajreich said:

Well! That was quite the event  Though we didn't end up with the snow amounts I would've hoped, this was still one of the most memorable winter weather events I've had. The combination of wind and cold is really exceptional in my experience; the type of stuff you'd expect in the NE, not here! The duration of cold and wind is also impressive - both have been sustained throughout the day. We're in the SW hills at 600 feet.

Our high for the day was 16.5 at midnight, low of 10.2 degrees around 2:45 pm. Currently it is 11.1 degrees, so we've had 9 hours below 12 degrees. That is just exceptional back to 1990 (which I don't remember details of too well since I was only 6!) I'd assume we stay at roughly this temp through tomorrow AM, and a lot of stuff is going to freeze. I want to check out the pond and Laurelhurst park on Monday to see if its frozen over - I don't think its done that since 1990 or 1992.

Peak wind gust was 36.7 mph - wind gauge is about 6ft off the ground, so gusts higher up in the trees were even greater. Since about 10pm last night, we've had consistent wind gusts above 15 mph, with regular gusts consistently above 20 mph since 12pm today. Windchill has been consistently below zero since 9 am. Winds are still going strong! 

Currently, looks like about 2-3 inches of mixed precipitation, though the snow is so dry it's hard to tell what's snow and what's sleet. Enough to make the grass and streets white up here  Though in wind-exposed areas, it's all dry ground. Some of the larger drifts are 6-8 inches deep.

HRRR shows maybe a lucky inch or two between now and midnight, but even if we don't seen any more snow, today was a great weather day and one of my top 5 storms. My favorite video of the day below.

 

 

Similar amounts here. I think around 2-3" on the ground, but the blizzard winds made it really fun

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I went back and looked from Wednesday and the euro had today about 5-10 degrees to warm on average for today. 3 days ago none of the models were that close for today's low. Cmc did ok. Gfs and euro were way off. 

It seems like the ECMWF had SEA in the low to mid 20s today for at least several days.  

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I just learned that one of the two water lines to my kitchen sink now contains water in its solid state.

SAME!

[Olive1010]

I got like an inch or two in some spots, because of sleet it could’ve been more 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

I got like an inch or two in some spots, because of sleet it could’ve been more 

I guess NAM did pretty well

[Cold Snap]

I feel like this Portland event didn’t perform as much as expected based off your guys reports and what some of the models were showing. It seems like most of you had to deal with sleet most of the time. I feel like Longview was probably the winner with this. I don’t think we have anyone on here who lives there.

[Olive1010]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I guess NAM did pretty well

Bro, my friend in west slope got 6 inches 

[ShawniganLake]

Might have been posted already. But Alberta’s power grid is struggling under the demand in this cold snap

 

 

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I feel like this Portland event didn’t perform as much as expected based off your guys reports and what some of the models were showing. It seems like most of you had to deal with sleet most of the time. I feel like Longview was probably the winner with this. I don’t think we have anyone on here who lives there.

Yeah, I was hoping for 6 inches.

[Doinko]

Just measured, 3" of compacted snow/sleet, with drifts 6-8". Should last around, and maybe freezing rain will keep it around even longer. Really amazing event. Conditions were crazy, blizzard winds and temps in the teens