January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Fircrest]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Many places will have ice.

Possibly, but I was mostly referring to my location.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Go to bed everyone. It’s done  

And he did it as a reply to a Michael Snyder post that was totally unrelated. When Snyder blocks him, it will of course then be spun as yet another instance of how the entire unfair world is conspiring against poor little him.

[TacomaWx]

21 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I thought our amateur eyes were deceiving us but interesting that JAYA noticed this. 

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

31 and rain?

It's not icing up at all, no joke.  Yes 31 degrees and pouring rain.

[AuburnTexan]

31 degrees and pouring rain here as well. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

It's not icing up at all, no joke.  Yes 31 degrees and pouring rain.

Cliff feels redeemed 

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And he did it as a reply to a Michael Snyder post that was totally unrelated. When Snyder blocks him, it will of course then be spun as yet another instance of how the entire unfair world is conspiring against poor little him.

I still kinda like Cliff, despite all the drama over the last few years, but it takes a special kind of ego to double down on your forecasts that are marginal at best and could completely rug pull with the slightest change in low pressure positioning, and act like you are the end all be all of weather forecasting. Holy crap. Very Nyberg-esque tbh. 

[snow_wizard]

Hmmmmm.

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting that the temp at OLM has not dropped since the start of the precip there around 6:30.   Currently light rain and 34.

It dropped to 33.

[SnowySeeker50]

30.6f and just regular cold rain, nothing freezing

[Winterdog]

Temp up to 31 from 30 earlier.  No precip yet

[snow_wizard]

Oops!  I thought that last map was GFS.  This is the GFS and it is a bit south.

[TacomaWx]

Tacoma narrows and JBLM down to 32. At this temperature it’ll take the ice some time to freeze on surfaces…but it’ll eventually freeze on the roads. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

30.6f and just regular cold rain, nothing freezing

It will.

[SouthHillFrosty]

31 and moderate rain

 

[FrozenBites]

30 degrees, however the rain drops themselves do not freeze, a phenomena called supercooling (or forming "supercooled drops").

[the_convergence_zone]

Raining here now and 35 F. I was always skeptical of this one but I thought it would at least be a close call. Maybe it will cool enough for a brief mix in an hour or two. 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

4 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Are you in town or up on the ridge? I’m at 28.4 but dropping.  

I’m in Wilderness Rim up against Rattlesnake Mountain at about 1000’. My steep driveway is already slick, even walking to my car at the bottom could be difficult in the AM. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I thought our amateur eyes were deceiving us but interesting that JAYA noticed this. 

That is technically not the low for tomorrow.   I think think this is a deceiving situation because everything is so weak and low centers will morph around.

[Skagit Weather]

Unfortunately the 00z GFS has taken away a bit of my snowfall, but I believe that's because it's a bit drier. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Light snow 30.7

[TT-SEA]

Just now, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

I’m in Wilderness Rim up against Rattlesnake Mountain at about 1000’. My steep driveway is already slick, even walking to my car at the bottom could be difficult in the AM. 

Same here in the shaded part of our driveway.   And the wind just polishes it into a shiny surface.  

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

21 minutes ago, iFred said:

Oh yeah, those guys. I step on everyone I see.

Outside, they get crushed; inside they get flushed.

[Hawksfan2008]

[snow_wizard]

This GFS run has SEA at 33 in the late afternoon tomorrow.  A little bit of snow.  Snow even down to Tacoma.  If this verifies any south of this run the Seattle area will have snow tomorrow.  Even at face value there is some.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Getting better!

[MossMan]

Even though Cliff and Tim do not think this will be an event at all…I still staged my plow!

[Front Ranger]

Freezing rain looks exactly like non freezing rain until it doesn't. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

27 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

ME ME ME ME ME. what a chode

Imagine thinking that Shannon O'Donnell is only forecasting for Seattle!

And Snyder's YT channel covers OR, WA, ID, MT, and some of BC in different amounts. 

But Mass only focuses on Seattle to call everyone else out. Ugh.

 

And I'm editing to add that he signs his Tweets. Like this isn't a forecast discussion, Cliff. Your name and picture are right there. Sigh.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Freezing rain looks exactly like non freezing rain until it doesn't. 

If it isn't freezing on contact, is it freezing rain?  Freezing after precip stops does not count.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

How did the NAM and ICON snow map look? 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Freezing rain looks exactly like non freezing rain until it doesn't. 

It takes temperatures in the low to mid 20s to really see freezing rain freeze rapidly on contact. With these temperatures it takes longer for water to freeze. 

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Freezing rain looks exactly like non freezing rain until it doesn't. 

My first experience with real freezing rain was in Mukilteo back in the 1990s. I had no clue it was even a thing. Walked outside to what i thought was a normal wet and rainy environment and immediately fell on my butt. Not cool. You're right, it absolutely just looks like normal rain without snow involved. 

[snow_wizard]

ZR here at 31.8.  Stuff already has a coating on it.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even though Cliff and Tim do not think this will be an event at all…I still staged my plow!

I don't think he's saying there won't be ice here and snow up there.

[Front Ranger]

SEA dropped from 35 to 33 as soon as precip started.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even though Cliff and Tim do not think this will be an event at all…I still staged my plow!

I think it likely will be a snow event for you!  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z GFS says we might be doing this all over again 2 days from now. It shows freezing rain Thursday afternoon/night for PDX/SEA. It looks like there should still be enough of a Cold Pool in the Columbia Basin to make it happen as winds turn offshore again.

 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same here in the shaded part of our driveway.   And the wind just polishes it into a shiny surface.  

It’s kind of beautiful. However, ice is on my bad side right now because I slipped and landed right on my kneecap yesterday and I have a bad feeling I may have to visit a doctor soon.. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty happy with the temps the GFS is spitting out the next couple of days.  Winter lives on!