January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Back to BSF.

Yep, we had a good run there with some surface Arctic air.

Maybe one day we can have another -11c 850s or better Arctic upper level airmass that's from the N instead of BSF aloft.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 42/31 spread today. Pretty morning with some sunbreaks, then rain moving in by 2-3pm. The high was hit around noon, with temps falling back into the upper 30s much of the afternoon once the rain started. Nice to have another wintery feeling day out there.

[Skagit Weather]

35F with rain here. The low level cold continues to cling on for as long as possible. The NWS currently thinks it should be 7-8 degrees warmer than it actually is.

[lowlandsnow]

The great thaw of 2024 to be followed by a 2019 style February 

[snow_wizard]

Well...That's a wrap on what was easily our most impressive January cold wave in over 50 years for SEA.  I just ran the numbers for the coldest 7 day period in any January since 1951, and every single one of the 25 coldest were from 1973 or earlier.  As you can see in the table there are three 7 day periods from the recent cold wave that made the cut.

[snow_wizard]

Now it's hang on time to see how low of a monthly average we can end up with.  No really serious torching until maybe next weekend.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

35F with rain here. The low level cold continues to cling on for as long as possible. The NWS currently thinks it should be 7-8 degrees warmer than it actually is.

You have some luck there.  Even Whatcom County is higher than that in a lot of places.

Looks like evap cooling might get it below 40 here tonight to at least keep the streak of sub 40 lows going.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have some luck there.  Even Whatcom County is higher than that in a lot of places.

Looks like evap cooling might get it below 40 here tonight to at least keep the streak of sub 40 lows going.

It barely got into the 40s here today. Much of the afternoon was in the 30s and there was a freeze this morning.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the GFS and GEFS seem to have a pretty decent cool signal for early Feb right now.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It barely got into the 40s here today. Much of the afternoon was in the 30s and there was a freeze this morning.

Yeah...we finally lost the cold today.  I did ok last night with 34.  We usually do better up here going into cold periods and you do better at the end of them.

[snow_wizard]

Turns out BLI had a 7 day average of 20.3 with the cold wave.  Pretty bone chilling stuff.

[LowerGarfield]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Haha there is your answer! 

What's interesting though is my daughter NEVER had been sick in her life until kindergarten last year. She was then sick half the year, but has been fine this year. Our son got RSV, last November, but that's the only time he's been sick (knock on wood.). My wife is really into indigenous medicine, which I think is quackery, but the kids are pretty healthy...

Better than mine. She believes that metals and copper are cure alls.

[snow_wizard]

That cold signal in AK is brutal during week 2.  Hopefully that will drop down later.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Better than mine. She believes that metals and copper are cure alls.

Be careful with the metals.  I do know that certain forms of silver can be good though.

[LowerGarfield]

Another sub freezing day but warming up.

Main road finally has bare pavement but side roads are still covered and icy. Speaking of ice. I had a funny accidental injury earlier. I was scooping ice cream with a spoon, it somehow slipped and jamed a finger and was bleeding for awhile. Put a bandage on and it was fine. Then at bed time (which my phone corrected to NWS time lol) it started bleeding again. Hoping it holds for tonight.

 

Anyway wife's surgery went well and she made it back the hospital in town. I hope her best friend from Tampa got to walk in the snow tonight. It will probably be melted in a few days. 

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Be careful with the metals.  I do know that certain forms of silver can be good though.

Yeah. I avoid that stuff and early last year we made a trade. Fluoride free toothpaste for our son in exchange for her not giving him any of that metal stuff anymore.

[Phishy Wx]

30 with light freezing rain. going to be an ice skating rink out there tomorrow

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

The great thaw of 2024 to be followed by a 2019 style February 

That is a DISGUSTING warm anomaly

[Meatyorologist]

50 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

30 with light freezing rain. going to be an ice skating rink out there tomorrow

Funny how there's still some of that arctic air sitting around, albeit heavily modified and in imminent danger of being scoured out.

[Dave]

7 hours ago, Dave said:

I ended up with a sub 40 day at 39/31. It probably helped that there is still a decent amount of slushy ice below my thermometer and it doesn't receive any sunshine this time of year. At 8am it was 32 degrees with light rain. No telling what EUG got since it appears to be broken.

Yeah, this didn't happen. This evening a big slug of BSF came in, melted all my ice and brought me into the mid 40's. 

[The Blob]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Be careful with the metals.  I do know that certain forms of silver can be good though.

Too much colloidal silver will turn you permanently blue.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How much expected tonight

Just a couple of inches.  But we are not expecting freezing rain.  

[Phil]

36hrs of NW wind has blown all the snow from one side of my deck to the other side. Snow-nadoes galore. 

[Phil]

I’m going to have to strip the wire from the solar panel to the anemometer and solder it to one from a 5V adapter. What a useless piece of junk, can’t keep the batteries charged for more than 2 weeks at a time…pathetic.

I’ve lost so much wind data over the last 2 months.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z gfs was money.

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 hours ago, lowlandsnow said:

The great thaw of 2024 to be followed by a 2019 style February 

Canada is going to be roasting and toasting.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...That's a wrap on what was easily our most impressive January cold wave in over 50 years for SEA.  I just ran the numbers for the coldest 7 day period in any January since 1951, and every single one of the 25 coldest were from 1973 or earlier.  As you can see in the table there are three 7 day periods from the recent cold wave that made the cut.

And it would have easily ranked higher if the arctic front had been snowy.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Moderate rain and 38.5˚F. A lot of melting happened overnight.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

59 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Canada is going to be roasting and toasting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really liking the active theme on the GFS. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Interesting temp profile going on IMBY.  Had a low of 36, then the temp went from 38 to 46 over the course of about an hour, then went from 46 to 40 in 30 minutes, and that's where we currently sit.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Here is the current state of the snow up here at my house.  It’s putting up a good fight, though we did dip down to about 33-34 last night before midnight.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

Here is the current state of the snow up here at my house.  It’s putting up a good fight, though we did dip down to about 33-34 last night before midnight.

 

 

This event is proof that the big challenge is getting the cold air in here. Once we do that, good things can happen. 

[MossMan]

My current snow situation.  

45 degrees.,

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The theme starting to emerge on the GFS is a massive ridge building across Eastern North America and systems ultimately diving into California with generally weak GOA ridging. It's not a great pattern for us, but could produce some coolish temps and mountain snow at times. 

[ShawniganLake]

35.6F and raining this morning.  Looks like about 6” or so of snow left. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh...Oh... 

[snow_wizard]

11 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yep, we had a good run there with some surface Arctic air.

Maybe one day we can have another -11c 850s or better Arctic upper level airmass that's from the N instead of BSF aloft.

What is BSF?

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

What is BSF?

Boring southerly flow 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh...Oh... 

The GFS has caught scent of something in early February.  It has been consistent in showing some pretty chilly weather at least.

I'm really concerned about a torch the final 3 or 4 days of the month that could ruin our cold monthly average though.