January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

Just took a Covid test again after being sick for 4 days and still a glaring positive.  This is a bad strain.  Do all you can to avoid it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just took a Covid test again after being sick for 4 days and still a glaring positive.  This is a bad strain.  Do all you can to avoid it.

Hope that's not what I'm coming down with. I've developed a cough and sore throat the last couple of days here in the Sooner state. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just took a Covid test again after being sick for 4 days and still a glaring positive.  This is a bad strain.  Do all you can to avoid it.

Friend just came down with it, and my wife said its burning through folks at her work, which is a cancer clinic....last place you want something like this going through.

[Doinko]

Even with this torch, I think it's been a pretty fun month, better than anything I expected from a strong Nino. Starting with the arctic air arriving from both the north and east on the 12th, then the blizzard and snow/sleet storm that dropped 3" here with temps below 15 degrees for most of it. Cold and sunny with snowcover on the 15th was pretty amazing, second winter in a row with that. Then some freezing rain on the 16th and 18th, with the snow sticking around for over a week. Then a couple days ago we even had a brief but huge downpour with multiple lightning strikes.

Probably will end up around average at PDX for temps but pretty wet. Almost 11" of precip here for the month. Glad to see early February looks chilly too. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just took a Covid test again after being sick for 4 days and still a glaring positive.  This is a bad strain.  Do all you can to avoid it.

Are you getting super anxiety with it. Was crippling for me back in November

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

Even with this torch, I think it's been a pretty fun month, better than anything I expected from a strong Nino. Starting with the arctic air arriving from both the north and east on the 12th, then the blizzard and snow/sleet storm that dropped 3" here with temps below 15 degrees for most of it. Cold and sunny with snowcover on the 15th was pretty amazing, second winter in a row with that. Then some freezing rain on the 16th and 18th, with the snow sticking around for over a week. Then a couple days ago we even had a brief but huge downpour with multiple lightning strikes.

Probably will end up around average at PDX for temps but pretty wet. Almost 11" of precip here for the month. Glad to see early February looks chilly too. 

Time to make lemonade from these lemons. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've been through Butte a couple of times. Given it's rep it was not nearly as bad as I had expected. 

I really liked Butte the few hours I was there. Would like to go back for a visit sometime.

[Phishy Wx]

39 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The koppen system leaves much to be desired. The fact that we are in a similar climate zone as the Bay Area according to that is pretty laughable.

if you can successfully grow palms you're at least Med, IMO

[Meatyorologist]

I'm pretty disappointed by the continued lack of windstorms here. This being an El Niño winter I would have expected one... But the STJ never really got cranking into the west coast to the capacity we expected, and the few times it did we rolled duds every time. There's still some Winter to go by, but in that department I must say I feel let down. Maybe Phil's prophesized mid-late Feb jet extension will DELIVER

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I'm pretty disappointed by the continued lack of windstorms here. This being an El Niño winter I would have expected one... But the STJ never really got cranking into the west coast to the capacity we expected, and the few times it did we rolled duds every time. There's still some Winter to go by, but in that department I must say I feel let down. Maybe Phil's prophesized mid-late Feb jet extension will DELIVER

I think he's going with a west coast ridge at that time now?

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm pretty disappointed by the continued lack of windstorms here. This being an El Niño winter I would have expected one... But the STJ never really got cranking into the west coast to the capacity we expected, and the few times it did we rolled duds every time. There's still some Winter to go by, but in that department I must say I feel let down. Maybe Phil's prophesized mid-late Feb jet extension will DELIVER

I haven’t experienced a good one here since August of 2015.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

I haven’t experienced a good one here since August of 2015.

And it's not as if they don't exist anymore. Just offshore there's this...

[MV_snow]

3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

YA THINK? Just a little better for the snow pack.

I just meant I would take both the arctic blast and the torch than neither one. That doesn’t mean I approve of the torch but it was bound to happen in a nino. Hope we can defy the nino in Feb-Mar to get some nice snowpack going into Spring.

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm pretty disappointed by the continued lack of windstorms here. This being an El Niño winter I would have expected one... But the STJ never really got cranking into the west coast to the capacity we expected, and the few times it did we rolled duds every time. There's still some Winter to go by, but in that department I must say I feel let down. Maybe Phil's prophesized mid-late Feb jet extension will DELIVER

Have some of our biggest windstorms come in neutral or weak Nino years? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

if you can successfully grow palms you're at least Med, IMO

You can tell my neighborhood palms were not happy about two consecutive nights in the single digits. Reasonably sure they will pull through, but you can still tell they were not happy about it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

You can tell my neighborhood palms were not happy about two consecutive nights in the single digits. Reasonably sure they will pull through, but you can still tell they were not happy about it.

There was always a palm at one of the gas stations when I lived in Bville, Ok. It survived several bouts of sub-zero temps, but it did not survive the -28 in February, 2011. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There was always a palm at one of the gas stations when I lived in Bville, Ok. It survived several bouts of sub-zero temps, but it did not survive the -28 in February, 2011. 

That’s good to hear. It’s not just the palms that have an unhappy look to them. The camellias have lots of leaf damage, too, and I saw one boxwood whose leaves are now mostly brown. Even some native plants got blasted; lots of dead sword fern fronds around.

Looks to be mostly leaf damage, which is easy for plants to recover from. Most likely, by June all the damaged foliage will have been replaced and it will be hard to tell how blasted things once looked.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The koppen system leaves much to be desired. The fact that we are in a similar climate zone as the Bay Area according to that is pretty laughable.

I’m in the same climate zone as Palm Beach. The thresholds between koppen classes need to be moved and/or redefined.

Trewartha method better but too broad.

[Slushy Inch]

This gfs run should be better 

[Slushy Inch]

43 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm pretty disappointed by the continued lack of windstorms here. This being an El Niño winter I would have expected one... But the STJ never really got cranking into the west coast to the capacity we expected, and the few times it did we rolled duds every time. There's still some Winter to go by, but in that department I must say I feel let down. Maybe Phil's prophesized mid-late Feb jet extension will DELIVER

Seems like the deep lows are always super far offshore for some reason.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m in the same climate zone as Palm Beach. The thresholds between koppen classes need to be moved and/or redefined.

Trewartha method better but too broad.

I get what they are going for but a lot of the details that make climates unique are smoothed over or lost.

I’ve always thought vegetation type is a great climate zone indicator.

[Anti Marine Layer]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

You can tell my neighborhood palms were not happy about two consecutive nights in the single digits. Reasonably sure they will pull through, but you can still tell they were not happy about it.

How did the rubus leucodermis shrubs like it?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I get what they are going for but a lot of the details that make climates unique are smoothed over or lost.

I’ve always thought vegetation type is a great climate zone indicator.

Vegetation is correlated to climate, but it is also correlated to other factors, particularly soil.

To pick one example, in Texas the loblolly pine forest tends to start very abruptly, as soon as the underlying geology changes from limestone to sandstone. Two locations a few miles apart can have totally different dominant vegetation, despite having virtually the same climate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Much better GFS run. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

How did the rubus leucodermis shrubs like it?

Just fine, thorny as ever.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major improvements.

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think he's going with a west coast ridge at that time now?

The jet (as in, STJ) is already extended. And will remain that way for awhile. The lack of windstorms up there is probably due to the lack of a northern jet.

Not much wind out here either, but that’s typical for El Niño winters. Usually it’s La Niña winters that bring the big winds.

Though come March/April the ENSO relationship fades somewhat. Almost always windy in the spring.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I get what they are going for but a lot of the details that make climates unique are smoothed over or lost.

I’ve always thought vegetation type is a great climate zone indicator.

I was thinking that too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

The jet (as in, STJ) is already extended. And will remain that way for awhile. The lack of windstorms up there is probably due to the lack of a northern jet.

Not much wind out here either, but that’s typical for El Niño winters. Usually it’s La Niña winters that bring the big winds.

Though come March/April the ENSO relationship fades somewhat. Almost always windy in the spring.

I live in the forest. I will not complain about a lack of windstorms. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah... I'm not really sure I have a good comp in my mind. January 1998 to an extent? 

That ended up being one of the best matches at 500mb.

55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm pretty disappointed by the continued lack of windstorms here. This being an El Niño winter I would have expected one... But the STJ never really got cranking into the west coast to the capacity we expected, and the few times it did we rolled duds every time. There's still some Winter to go by, but in that department I must say I feel let down. Maybe Phil's prophesized mid-late Feb jet extension will DELIVER

The jet (STJ) is extended now. But the northern stream is AWOL going forward.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of similarities to January 1998.  Arctic blast happened on the same days and SEA just broke record high today from 1998.

[Slushy Inch]

Gfs is now pretty good, gem on icon are not. Models riding really is a roller coaster 

[FroYoBro]

Definite chill in the air tonight. Down to 52 here. Halloween approaches.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gfs is now pretty good, gem on icon are not. Models riding really is a roller coaster 

Just going to mention... GFS shows a big snowstorm for SW BC now.    But the GEM went in the complete opposite direction and is drier and warmer than previous runs.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of similarities to January 1998.  Arctic blast happened on the same days and SEA just broke record high today from 1998.

Yeah it’s a good subseasonal analog at the very least.

I think we break away from it this spring, though.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just going to mention... GFS shows a big snowstorm for SW BC now.    But the GEM went in the complete opposite direction and is drier and warmer than previous runs.

Gfs has been sticking with the idea of a cutoff stalling somewhere. Actually has some teeth on this run.

[AlTahoe]

Warm west coast today 

 

 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just going to mention... GFS shows a big snowstorm for SW BC now.    But the GEM went in the complete opposite direction and is drier and warmer than previous runs.

The GEM is going to struggle w/ the MJO moving into phase 7/8/1. Historically that is its Achilles heel.

[MossMan]

Remember how I mentioned last evening that there was no chorus of frogs yet, just random croaking…Well tonight is a different story! Frogs are singing tonight, probably the earliest I ever remember hearing them. 

[MossMan]

Temp up to 58.2 degrees currently.