February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

Light rain had been falling most of the night.  I've received about a.40 inch of rain.  Looks like we'll have a storm to track on or just after super bowl Sunday. 

[chescowxman]

Our beautiful stretch of February weather looks to continue for most of the next week with average to above temps and sunshine much of the upcoming week. The rumored pattern change to colder....if it occurs is still at least 10 or more days away.

Records for today: High 63 (1991) / Low 1 below (1898) / Precipitation 1.35" (1920) / Snow 9.1" (1995)

[CentralNebWeather]

Really nice totals in my area from 1.5-2.0” as of 6 am this morning. Rain continues. 

[gosaints]

The impressive thing about this blowtorch around here is the staying power it has had and looks to continue with.   The GFS basically takes it through valentines day.  

I would much rather be in the northeast....

[Hoosier]

This will end up being a pretty historic stretch of futility for Chicago in terms of no snow.  The seasonal total doesn't look terrible on paper up to this point, but going from 1/20 through whatever date it will end up being with no measurable snowfall whatsoever has only happened a couple times in the approximately 140 years of snowfall records.

[Clinton]

12z Run of the Euro and the Control  showing a nice panhandle hook in about a week.  I would like to see some more colder ensembles.

GFS looks like it's trying to join in.

 

[Money]

We literally had like two snowstorms here and that was it. Kind of crazy 

no ice up at the lakes for sturgeon spearing this year 

[Tom]

Alright, Alright, Alright....Happy Monday...Big week of Golf for the valley as the Waste Management Open begins this Wed thru the weekend.  The weather looks a bit ugly but gets better for the weekend...albeit, cool but as long as the Sun is out it'll feel better.  Big time rains coming for MBY 1"+ along the foothills into the mountains.  Flood Watch's issued and tremendous RN and SN coming up for Tue-Wed.  The Mogollon Rim is expecting 10-16" of Snow and the Flagstaff area should do well also.

 

 

[Tom]

Its not a bad thing that the next storm is cutting NW bc it will lay down the carpet where they have been missed for pretty much the entire snow season...This should aid in the cold once the pattern locks for the remainder of Met Winter.  Hopefully @Beltrami Islandcan somehow score on the backend of this system.

 

It's wild to see the consistency from basically all the models in the LR to dislodge of the PV just south of Hudson Bay by mid month.  The Greenland Block is going to produce a favorable pattern for Severe Cold.  It all depends if there will be a snow cover around but the Lakes will no doubt be on Fire by Valentine's Day.

[chescowxman]

Most spots were in the 20's to start the day with the lowest I could find in both Warwick Township and down in Kennett Square at 22 degrees. Tomorrow and Wednesday look to be close to normal temps while the rest of the week should see above normal temps rising into the 50's toward the weekend. Next week should see a return to a stretch of below normal temps.

Records for today: High 66 (1991) / Low 11 below (1918) / Precipitation 1.90" (1907) / Snow 12.0" (1907)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 50/23 that 50 was the 3^rd warmest February 4^th at Grand Rapids. There was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 52 was set in 1991 and the record low of -16 was set in 1985. The most snow on the ground was 21” in 2014 there was 20” on the ground in 1959. Last year the H/L was 39/29 and there was 5” of snow on the ground.

It was once again a very frosty night and the overnight low here in MBY was 19. At this time it is clear and 25.

[westMJim]

There is some very interesting weather history on February 5th over the years.

First for southern Lower Michigan

1890: Temperatures more like April than February prevail during one of the mildest winters on record in Lower Michigan. Lansing sets a record high of 61 degrees for the second day in a row.

1918: Frigid weather holds on across Lower Michigan with the temperature falling to record lows of 16 below zero at Muskegon and 21 below at Lansing.

2014, a winter storm 6 to 8 inches of snow to Southeast Michigan. The highest accumulations were measured in Wayne, Washtenaw, and Monroe counties including 8 inches in Detroit. Flint recorded 5.8 inches while Saginaw recorded only 4 inches.

1918, the overnight temperature dropped to -23 degrees in Saginaw. This is the record low for this city!

Around the USA

1887:  San Francisco experienced its most significant snowstorm of record. Nearly four inches was reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball throwing rampage.

1920: An intense nor’easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow over three days in New York City Central Park, New York. Boston, MA, saw 12.2 inches of snow on this day.

1976: Record-breaking snowfall of just two inches fell in Sacramento, California. February 5, 1976, is the only time since November 1941 when snow was reported in Sacramento

[Thunder98]

Looks like the Marine Layer has took a winter holiday over the Great Lakes. @Anti Marine Layer

 

 

[MIKEKC]

ICON has KC in snowstorm after the Chiefs win the SB around 9;00 pm Sunday night

[MIKEKC]

Canadian model suggest it goes NW of KC

[GDR]

After the 49ers Win

[MIKEKC]

EURO blasts KC with heavy snow during the Chiefs Victory

[Iceresistance]

AO is divebombing, winter is not over yet!

[ATW]

On 2/3/2024 at 8:03 AM, Clinton said:

Good write up from Bastardi I want to share.

Seven reasons for huge Feb 10-March 20 for US. No Retreat No Surrender

1) SOI crash for feb.

2 stratwarm in Jan

3 MJO move

 

 

4 teleconnections all flipping

 

 

 

 

6 europe turning very cold again

Cahirs Connection arises 70 north 70 east

Analogs to who's who of winter end games

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s finish winter with a bang!

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

EURO blasts KC with heavy snow during the Chiefs Victory

Massive flip flop from previous.

Now the GFS is the one without a storm.

[Clinton]

EPS is starting to get some ensembles on board.

Canadian ensembles further north

[OKwx2k4]

Last few rounds of modeling starting to perk up my antennae for a good textbook late-season snow.

I guess I'm ready to see what this last round of cold and storms has to offer. Been a little something for everyone on the southern end this season. I can't complain. 

Feels like I stole southern California's weather.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS has killed almost all the measurable snow on the backside of the late week storm. Euro has it but I'm the southeasternmost county to get 2+ inches.

Good news is a clipper pattern begins next week!

[chescowxman]

Sunny skies should be the rule through Thursday. Chillier today with temps remaining in the 30's but warming trend starts tomorrow topping out well into the 50's by Saturday. Shower chances increase on Sunday night and much colder air appears likely with even some wintry weather chances next week.

Records for today: High 66 (2008) / Low 6 below (1895) / Precipitation 3.00" (1896) / Snow 12.3" (2010)

[chescowxman]

In comparing NOOA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) average post observation temperature adjustments applied to the actual average temperatures as recorded by the NWS Chester County PA Cooperative observers shows that the average temperature data was adjusted downward every single year from 1895 through 2004 or for 110 consecutive years. The greatest adjustments were reductions in average temperatures of 2.76 degrees in 1945 / 2.69 degrees in 1943 /2.62 degrees in 1942 / 2.58 degrees in 1951. Conversely. In the 18 years since 2005 every year has been adjusted upwards with the exception of 2019 with the greatest adjustments upward to temperatures being applied to 2018 +1.87 degrees and 2005 with a +0.66 degree adjustment.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/.../PA-029/tavg/ytd/12/1895-2023

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 43/23 there was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out 99% of the possible time. The 1^st 5 days have now had a mean of 34.0 at GR that is a departure of +9.6 at Lansing their mean is 31.9 for a departure of +8.3. For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 54 was set in 1938 and the record low of -9 was set in 1895 and 1977. The record snowfall was 8.1” in 2008 the most on the ground was 21” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 36/24 and there was 3” of snow on the ground.

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan for February 6

 

1895: Lower Michigan is in the midst of a week long siege of arctic air. High temperatures struggle through the single numbers while morning lows fall well below zero. Lansing falls to 14 below zero on this date after lows of 24 below on the 4th and 20 below on the 5th. Grand Rapids hits 9 below after falling to 16 below on the 5th.

1938: The weight of ice and water carried away the west side of the Rogue river dam at Childsdale.The Souffrow bridge near North Belmont was closed to traffic as its footing had been swept away by the river. Several houses along the east bank of the Grand River were flooded.

2008: Near blizzard conditions occur across part of Lower Michigan with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour. More than a foot of snow fell north of Interstate 96 to Route 10. Further south, a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain occurred from Kalamazoo to Jackson. The storm drops more than 8 inches of snow at Grand Rapids, contributing to the snowiest February on record with 41.6 inches.

2019: An ice jam on the Grand River in Portland caused flooding along Water Street in downtown Portland, where about 50 people were evacuated from their homes. The ice jam shifted and thickened a couple of days later, causing additional flooding. Many businesses along Kent Street were flooded, and people along Canal and Market streets were evacuated. The ice jam held for more than three weeks before finally melting and shifting downstream. Some homes on Water Street experienced continuous flooding for most of this three-week period.

2008, a hit most of Southeast Michigan. Widespread amounts ranged from 6 inches across central Livingston, Oakland and Macomb Counties to greater than 10 inches for all of the Flint (11.3 inches at Bishop Airport), Tri-Cities (12.0 inches at Tri-Cities Airport), and Thumb regions. Areas across the southern Saginaw River Valley were dumped with 16 to 18 inches of snow from southwest Saginaw to Birch Run to Vassar.

In the northeast US

1978, A massive nor’easter buried the northeastern U.S. Storm totals’ cities, including 18 inches in New York City, 16 inches at Philadelphia, and 14 inches in Baltimore. The Boston MA area received 25 to 30 inches in “The Great New England Blizzard.” The mayor outlawed travel in the city for an entire week.

2010, On February 5-6, a severe nor’easter, commonly referred to as Snowmageddon, impacted the east coast from North Carolina to New York. Some snowfall amounts include; 32.9 inches at Washington Dulles International Airport; 28.5 inches at the Philadelphia International Airport; 21.1 inches at the Pittsburgh International Airport; 18.2 in Atlantic City; and Trace in Central Park.

 

[Andie]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Last few rounds of modeling starting to perk up my antennae for a good textbook late-season snow.

I guess I'm ready to see what this last round of cold and storms has to offer. Been a little something for everyone on the southern end this season. I can't complain. 

Feels like I stole southern California's weather.

It’s all over but the paperwork here.  
So much moisture in the air.
43*   87% Humidity 

Is it Spring yet?

You watch- it’ll come a cold snap and we’ll freeze. Easter isn’t till March 31st. 
Not over yet.  

[MIKEKC]

Well, that beautiful  looking snowstorm for KC on the EURO and CMC yesterday has vanished. The pattern on the mid-range models is as far from winter as they can be...we'll see if a storm pops back in there today for the middle of the country.

Maybe the data hasn't digested the teleconnections yet....or....winter may struggle to return. 

For now, KC will enjoy drier weather and temps more like early April.  

[chescowxman]

Some really interesting statistics for Chester County that really makes you question some of the historical temperature trending data we see. Incredibly the NCEI data set for Chester County PA. Of note from 1895 through 1970 (77 years) the reported average Chester County temperatures for 73 of those 77 (95%) years is now reported as lower than any available reporting site in the county in those years. So are we to assume all stations in Chester County were faulty for 95% of the reporting observations through 1970??

[Beltrami Island]

On 2/5/2024 at 7:16 AM, Tom said:

 Hopefully @Beltrami Islandcan somehow score on the backend of this system.

This system keeps coming in with lower and lower SLP and less moisture with each model run it seems.  Not very high hopes for this producing anything meaningful other than front end rain and wind and flurries on the backside.  

[Timmy Supercell]

False Spring is here. I had my first 60 degree day of the year on Sunday, upper 50's yesterday and low 50's today. Going to warm back up a few degrees towards the weekend.

And that's not all, somewhere inside the walls of my home there are these red wasps that made the place their home. On just about a daily basis I've had to vacuum a wasp in the early evening in my room, and I believe I have narrowed an exact location they're poking through (kind of on the side of the attic door). Can't really afford exterminators at the moment, so I am for now DIY sealing a couple of openings with my own materials and taping up the areas. lol

I read some wasps are strong enough to eat through duct tape but I am confident these aren't those kinds.. 

[gimmesnow]

46 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

False Spring is here. I had my first 60 degree day of the year on Sunday, upper 50's yesterday and low 50's today. Going to warm back up a few degrees towards the weekend.

And that's not all, somewhere inside the walls of my home there are these red wasps that made the place their home. On just about a daily basis I've had to vacuum a wasp in the early evening in my room, and I believe I have narrowed an exact location they're poking through (kind of on the side of the attic door). Can't really afford exterminators at the moment, so I am for now DIY sealing a couple of openings with my own materials and taping up the areas. lol

I read some wasps are strong enough to eat through duct tape but I am confident these aren't those kinds.. 

For about $35, you can buy over a pound of "tempo dust"  which is basically a lifetime supply. It kills all stinging insects. It's a dust, it sticks to their bodies, they go back to their nests, and then spread it all over the place. It isn't an instant kill but it's way better than the spray stuff. See if you can find where the humming from the wasps is coming from, drill a very small hole in the wall (not on a stud), and then take the tempo dust and give it a couple poofs and they'll all be dead in a few days.

If you pay an exterminator that's all they are going to do. In fact I found out about tempo dust from the exterminator and that's what they used. Make sure you wear a mask and stuff, it doesn't take a lot of the dust to make total wasp death a thing.

It also works really well on ants.

[Clinton]

Warm and windy for my area the next few days.  The Canadian ensembles hint at some snow early next week while the GFS and Euro take the storm to my south, certainly something to watch.

Late weekend and early next week 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 41/28 there was no rain/snowfall. For the season GR remains at 34.5” of snowfall that is -20.5” below average as of this date. There was 38% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 52 was set in 2009 and the record low of -15 was set in 1899. The record snowfall of 8.1” fell in 1933 the most snow on the ground was 23” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 45/32 and there was 2” of snow on the ground.

The current temperature here in MBY is 25 with mostly cloudy skies. The overnight low was 24 there is once again a good amount of frost here. There have now been 15 days in a row of above average temperatures. The mean at Grand Rapids is 34.1 that is +9.7 at Lansing the mean there is 32.8 that is +9.1 and at Muskegon the mean is 36.8 for a whopping +10.9.

 

[chescowxman]

Today should be our 16th straight above normal day...this streak should reach at least 20 days before our first chance at a below normal day since January 22nd by next Monday or Tuesday.

Records for today: High 61 (2008) / Low 2 below (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Snow 10.0" (1895)

[Tom]

Happy Humpday!  Just an incredible amount of snow has fallen across Flagstaff and the Snowbowl Ski Resort.  I turned on the local news channel around 4pm last night and they had about 3-4" of wet snow but then it got real heavy as it must have puked snow overnight.  FLG reported just after 1:00am local time 16.5" of snow and it is currently snowing Heavily.  They expect another 10-16" just today! 

On the other hand, Snowbowl received a whopping 26" in 24 hours!  Incredible.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

You don't think the weather cycles???  I remember vividly when this storm developed back in the Autumn and had a lot of confidence this would deliver the goods over here and the Intermountain West.

[Andie]

Clear sunny and beautiful.   
High of 69*. Good morning!

 

[Madtown]

So long range looks like a week of slightly above average followed by  warm again  for a week  and a half then average for a week then spring. Yeehaw