February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[tStacsh]

20 minutes ago, Madtown said:

So long range looks like a week of slightly above average followed by  warm again  for a week  and a half then average for a week then spring. Yeehaw

Yup, like Tom said above.  The weather cycles.  It's been mostly warm followed by one week of cold/winter.  It's coming back for 1 week, and then it gets warm again.  As long as these storms are hitting the 4 corners region, we will be "warm" in the midwest.   And that looks to be the case in another 10 days or so.  That takes us to March,  I hate March more than February in terms of winter weather.   March can either be Spring or Winter here.  I prefer Spring in March.   So I'm hopeful.   I'll enjoy one last run in February of winter, but after that, let's go Spring.  

[hawkstwelve]

What an incredibly boring pattern we've been in and look to continue to be in for quite some time. Every morning I check the models thinking maybe they'll show something interesting and almost every morning I am very disappointed. Most ensembles have our chance at an inch of snow over the next 10 days at only 10-20%, if that. Super lame.

Just watch - we will probably get hit with a snowstorm or two in March just as we are ready to turn the page and head into spring. I have a feeling winter will hold on late this season, which as much as I love snow I am generally ready for warmer temps and thunderstorms by March/April. We shall see. Until then, a complete and total snooze-fest.

[gimmesnow]

It's surreal seeing hills shut down runs, probably for the season, in early February. I saw UP is trying to organize to get some federal funds since this season was so bad. Too bad the current administration has higher priorities.

[MIKEKC]

@Clinton....ICON back with the storm idea, lets see how the GFS and CMC do

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

@Clinton....ICON back with the storm idea, lets see how the GFS and CMC do

Looks like the GFS is trending better.  Hopefully we can celebrate another superbowl win with some snow.

[Hoosier]

On another note, maybe a conditional/sleeper severe threat in and around northern IL tomorrow.  Low confidence and unclear how much convection there will be, but some potential is there.  Good 0-3 km CAPE being progged, so assuming there is convection, couldn't even rule out a tornado or two despite rather poor moisture return. 

[westMJim]

 The forecast discussion has the mention of record or near record warm highs and record lows for the next 3 days. Here are the record highs and record warmest minimums for today, Thursday and Friday. The record top highs for today at Grand Rapids are 52 in 2004, 51 in 1925, 48 in 1904, 47 in 2019 and 1928, 46 in 1965 and 1900. There will not be a near record warm low for today. At Lansing the record  high for today is 54 in 1900, 52 in 2009, 51 in 2019, 50 in 1887 and 1882, 49 in 1878 and 1867. There will be no record warms minimums at Lansing for today

For tomorrow the top highs at Grand Rapids are 60, in 1925, 59 in 1900, 57 in 1990, 56 in 1937, 53 in 1938. The record warm lows are 49 in 1925, 36 in 1936, 34 in 1938. At Lansing the top record highs are 62 in 1900, 59 in 1869, 56 in 1925, 55 in 1990, 53 in 1937 and 1867. The record warm lows are 39 in 1966, 36 in 2023 and 1898, 35 in 1881.

And for Friday the top  record highs at Grand Rapids are 55 in 1925, 54 in 1990, 53 in 1966, 52 in 1938, 49 in 2001. The top warmest lows are 41 in 1966, 36 in 1999, 34 in 1921. At Lansing the top record highs are 53 in 1990 and 1966, 52 in 1938 and 1925, 51 in 1991 and 50 in 2001. The top record warm lows are 39 in 1966, 36 in 2023 and 1898, 35 in 1881.

  

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

March can either be Spring or Winter here.  I prefer Spring in March.   So I'm hopeful.   I'll enjoy one last run in February of winter, but after that.

I would not be too surprised if we get a March snow or ice storm. It can even happen in April around here. Or could we be in for a March like 2012???

[Clinton]

Growing ensemble support from the GFS, EPS and the GEPS for some accumulating snow for my area.

 

[Clinton]

Before the possible winter weather Monday, I have some wind and potentially record breaking temps tomorrow.

@NWSKansasCity

 

We have gone ahead and issued a Wind Advisory from 6AM to 6PM tomorrow for portions of the area where wind gusts will reach 45 mph. With those breezy conditions tomorrow we will make a run at the record high of 68 set in 1938 in Kansas City.

[Beltrami Island]

3 hours ago, westMJim said:

I would not be too surprised if we get a March snow or ice storm. It can even happen in April around here. Or could we be in for a March like 2012???

Up north this is the late Jan/Feb version of March 2012

[Madtown]

6 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Up north this is the late Jan/Feb version of March 2012

It's unreal. 10" of ice on most lakes.  snow piles only. We are rebuilding the rink for the 4th time. Need to get to March 1st and then give me March 2012. Swimming by memorial day!

[jaster220]

On 2/6/2024 at 3:11 PM, Timmy Supercell said:

False Spring is here. I had my first 60 degree day of the year on Sunday, upper 50's yesterday and low 50's today. Going to warm back up a few degrees towards the weekend.

And that's not all, somewhere inside the walls of my home there are these red wasps that made the place their home. On just about a daily basis I've had to vacuum a wasp in the early evening in my room, and I believe I have narrowed an exact location they're poking through (kind of on the side of the attic door). Can't really afford exterminators at the moment, so I am for now DIY sealing a couple of openings with my own materials and taping up the areas. lol

I read some wasps are strong enough to eat through duct tape but I am confident these aren't those kinds.. 

I've had bee infestations twice at 2 different homes. German Hornets in the ceiling rafters right above the Master bed and they broke a 4" hole, fell through and swarmed the house. Fortunately NOT when we were asleep. We came home one evening and as we entered from the garage we saw a few flying (it was night so they were not too active - another lucky strike). But it was a Sunday night and only one pest control outfit would even answer the phone. They were not the Pros, not insured, and left us a mess but they fought it out and at least we got our house back. Found dead ones in every corner of closets for a couple years after. And that was the easy one, lol.

At the Marshall home, regular yellow jackets built a nest in the kitchen wall and after it got large enough, they started coming into the house and flying around. Cabinets and our fridge along that wall made it very difficult to see how exactly they were entering. Wasn't excited about having to rip cabinets off the wall to find the hole either. I moved the fridge and found no opening, so figured it must be under the rear of the cabinets - uggh. Try living without a usable kitchen, see how long that works out. Decided to move the fridge for another look in desperation and when I did there was half a bee head squashed between the linoleum and the bottom of the trim. Apparently, when the fridge was in place, the weight pushed down on the flooring just enough to allow to crawl through and take flight. Probably had swatted about 800 dead by this point and the wife was at her end. Had set off bug bombs and such but it wouldn't last, just kill the current batch. This was Sept 2014 and it was very mild and they were crazy active. After I calked that area, we were finally done with bees in the house. Final step was a can of regular bee spray, with a long enough length of tube from the hardware store, and after dark I shoved the hose in the opening by the sill outside where they were flying into and emptied the can as directed. Then used that expanding spray foam in a can along about 10 feet where the siding met the foundation (pre-Civil War home here). Took about 3 weeks to gain victory. One of the worst home-owner experiences ever. Good luck with your situation. Sounds like you have a handle on it, and some good advice regarding the "dust".

[jaster220]

Maybe one of the few, but 30th day with snow OTG for mby. As usual, the wooded areas have survived the best, while open and wind-prone areas are either open, or partially so. APX's snowcover map must be based on satellite sensing and broadly smoothed as they show almost all of NMI with at least 1"+ and yet as I drive north every day through Roscommon county there is almost no snow along the open right-of-way and wetlands along Houghton Lake. Not as snowless as @Madtown's pictures but very bleak compared to here in Clare county where it still looks and feels more like winter. The road that goes along the east side of the lake here is mostly wooded and I'd estimate 3-4" remains there in the shade. 

[Clinton]

I've enjoyed the warm weather recently but I'm ready for a little more winter.  Looks like it's about to flip.

@NWSKansasCity

 

This has been the 3 warmest first week of February on Kansas City's 136-year period of record. This week has been 17.9 degrees above normal!!

 

Flips by the 17th or sooner

 

[Minny_Weather]

Yawn.

[Timmy Supercell]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I've had bee infestations twice at 2 different homes. German Hornets in the ceiling rafters right above the Master bed and they broke a 4" hole, fell through and swarmed the house. Fortunately NOT when we were asleep. We came home one evening and as we entered from the garage we saw a few flying (it was night so they were not too active - another lucky strike). But it was a Sunday night and only one pest control outfit would even answer the phone. They were not the Pros, not insured, and left us a mess but they fought it out and at least we got our house back. Found dead ones in every corner of closets for a couple years after. And that was the easy one, lol.

At the Marshall home, regular yellow jackets built a nest in the kitchen wall and after it got large enough, they started coming into the house and flying around. Cabinets and our fridge along that wall made it very difficult to see how exactly they were entering. Wasn't excited about having to rip cabinets off the wall to find the hole either. I moved the fridge and found no opening, so figured it must be under the rear of the cabinets - uggh. Try living without a usable kitchen, see how long that works out. Decided to move the fridge for another look in desperation and when I did there was half a bee head squashed between the linoleum and the bottom of the trim. Apparently, when the fridge was in place, the weight pushed down on the flooring just enough to allow to crawl through and take flight. Probably had swatted about 800 dead by this point and the wife was at her end. Had set off bug bombs and such but it wouldn't last, just kill the current batch. This was Sept 2014 and it was very mild and they were crazy active. After I calked that area, we were finally done with bees in the house. Final step was a can of regular bee spray, with a long enough length of tube from the hardware store, and after dark I shoved the hose in the opening by the sill outside where they were flying into and emptied the can as directed. Then used that expanding spray foam in a can along about 10 feet where the siding met the foundation (pre-Civil War home here). Took about 3 weeks to gain victory. One of the worst home-owner experiences ever. Good luck with your situation. Sounds like you have a handle on it, and some good advice regarding the "dust".

Man, that sounds like it was a total nightmare to go though. Thankfully I'm spotting this in the winter time, before it potentially worsens. We have actually just recently been making trips into our attic to put away Christmas decorations and nothing has attacked us so far in there. I believe for now this is a more localized population on the side of the house and they're just trying to shelter from the cold. But any nest can be a bad one. We will definitely do more maintenance through the year. 

[Minny_Weather]

It's raining.

[westMJim]

Yesterday the official high of 48 and the official high of 47 at Grand Rapids and Muskegon were the 3^rd warmest on record at both locations. The high of 50 at Lansing was the 4^th warmest. It looks like the overnight low at Grand Rapids so far for today is 35 if that holds it will be the 3^rd warmest minimum at GRR. Note here in MBY the low was 31 at the current time I have 37.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 48/26 that 48 is the 3^rd warmest for the date. There was no rain or snowfall. The sun was out 19% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 60 was set in 1925 and the record low of -12 was set in 1974. The most rainfall of 0.75” fell in 1900 and the record snowfall of 5.4” fell in 1952 the most snow on the ground was 23” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 43/24.

For today the top highs at Grand Rapids are 60, in 1925, 59 in 1900, 57 in 1990, 56 in 1937, 53 in 1938. The record warm lows are 49 in 1925, 36 in 1936, 34 in 1938. At Lansing the top record highs are 62 in 1900, 59 in 1869, 56 in 1925, 55 in 1990, 53 in 1937 and 1867. The record warm lows are 39 in 1966, 36 in 2023 and 1898, 35 in 1881.

[westMJim]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

APX's snowcover map must be based on satellite sensing and broadly smoothed as they show almost all of NMI with at least 1"+

Also in parts of the UP there is no to very little snow on the ground according to some web cams.

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

and

https://www.mackinacbridge.org/fares-traffic/bridge-cam/

[Tom]

It's been a hellova past couple days around these parts as we have seen a good amount of rain in the valley along with some hail or graupel that was reported at the Waste Management Open yesterday.  I'm waiting for more reports to come in but the last one up in Flagstaff shows a 2-day total of 23.1" of Snow!  It continues to snow up there and has not stopped since it start on the 6th and probably won't stop till Friday am.  The footage up there looks amazing and also near Pinetop where they got 15" of new snow.  Today, another potent little storm will dump close to another Foot up in Flagstaff and the Rim Country.  Hands Down, this has been best stretch of winter for the state of Arizona.  The series of cold storms has really helped the snow pack after a slow start to the season.  The Colorado basin is at 120% of normal and that # is likely to increase over the coming month.

Just another day in paradise up in Mountain Country...

 

[hawkstwelve]

The last of our snow has finally melted and we are back to a bare ground here. That's what back-to-back days of 50+ degree high temps and a low of only 42 (+32 from normal) will get you. Still not seeing too much on the horizon to get excited about but at least the warmth has been kind of nice I guess.

[MIKEKC]

@Tom...the SW part of the country has had one heck of run the last 30-45 days or so. Some locations have had their entire annual total of precip. in just a few days. Amazing!!

I'm wondering if the cold and storminess will return to the nations midsection. We started a very active period around Jan. 5th and it lasted through Jan. 22-23rd. Obviously, we had our best winter run here in KC.(record cold for a week) This is due to cycle back through around Feb. 18th-20th with the idea of the 45 day cycle. I wonder if winter will return here because if we don't get cold soon, the grass and plants will be in full bloom come early to mid-March. We are close to the growing season starting very early...

Come on, winter, can't leave me with just that one beautiful 3-week stretch of cold and snow, I need one more run!

[chescowxman]

A few more beautiful mild February days on the way before the pattern changes to a more typical winter pattern next week. There is a chance some valley spots in the county could see near 60 degrees on Saturday. Rain looks to arrive on Monday night and if some models are to be believed could mix with or change to some wet snow toward Tuesday morning. Some models have multiple potential winter events over the next couple weeks so stay tuned.
Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low 4 below (1895) / Precip 1.00" (1895) / Snow 10.0" (1895)

[Black Hole]

I forgot to post these yesterday when I grabbed them, but a SSW now appears likely with a complete PV split. Easterly flow may extend as far down as 100 hPa across the pole region, which supposedly hasn't happened since 2010. At any rate, this should give us some winter weather potential through mid to late March. 

[Black Hole]

A compact but potent system will pass through OK Sunday->Monday, then tracking through MO/AR. Total liquid precipitation may exceed 1" based on the EPS mean. Current guidance has a near perfect track with the heavy wraparound passing through northeast OK. The attached ECMWF sounding shows cold enough temperatures aloft to support a change to snow in spite of marginal temperatures going into the event.

There are a number of crazy ensemble members, but I think cutting the totals in half or a third might make sense given the warm antecedent conditions. So the probable outcome for here based on current guidance would probably be 1-4", best bet of 1-2". However, the list of how we get less is long so I would not be surprised to see it turn into nothing too. At least its something to watch!

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I forgot to post these yesterday when I grabbed them, but a SSW now appears likely with a complete PV split. Easterly flow may extend as far down as 100 hPa across the pole region, which supposedly hasn't happened since 2010. At any rate, this should give us some winter weather potential through mid to late March. 

The JMA weeklies agree with your thoughts, esp the southern half of the Nation...

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...

[Tom]

Amazing Winter scenery at Snowbowl....unfortunately, I wasn't able to drive up this week but I'm hoping that there will be another good stretch of snowy weather this month and plan to go up and enjoy something like this...

https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/weather-conditions-webcams/webcams/

[Clinton]

The JMA and its ensembles are trending deeper into the cold phases of 1,2, and 3 by the 18th.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty breezy here this morning with some rain as the low pressure system passed almost directly over Sioux Falls.

[Iceresistance]

Things are getting crazy for me on Super Bowl Sunday! (Is there a separate topic for this?)

[gimmesnow]

I think this winter and the economy have broken a lot of people. Ski/snowboard stuff is already going on sale. In COVID you couldn't even find anything, let alone pay MSRP on gear. Snowmobile prices around me have plummeted. My sled used to be listed around $2,000 to $2,500 and now I'm seeing it for around $1,000. Listings from dealers showing price drops on new snowmobiles. Pretty crazy. Lines at the hill have been pre-COVID levels too. Surreal it's been almost 5 years since things have been kind of normal with winter sports because of COVID.

Maybe the silver lining is a lot of people who started skiing, snowboarding, and snowmobiling are gonna be done after this winter and things will go somewhat back to normal? I was kind of bumming last time I went boarding, with the heat and melt. But I kind of realized two years ago I would be waiting in a 5 minute line for a 60 second run.

[Tom]

12z Euro... @Iceresistance  @Black Hole

[tStacsh]

I believe we have tied a record of 60 here in Grand Rapids.  

[westMJim]

New record highs set. The 3PM readings have set a new record highs at Muskegon and Kalamazoo with a reading of 62. The readings of 60 at Holland 58 at Grand Rapids and 57 at Lansing have not reached records yet but will be the 2^nd at Holland and 3^rd at Grand Rapids and Lansing. Here in MBY I now have a reading of 60.

[westMJim]

33 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I believe we have tied a record of 60 here in Grand Rapids.

As of 3 PM new records have been set at Muskegon and Kalamazoo with 62. So far the warmest I have seen for GRR is 58.  I have 60 at this time but the clouds are now moving in.

[westMJim]

Not a lot of snow left in parts of the UP at this time.
https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/
and 
https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

[Hawkeye]

I just heard a rumble of thunder.  Unfortunately, the storms popped up just barely northeast of me.  We are up to 65º.

[tStacsh]

16 minutes ago, westMJim said:

As of 3 PM new records have been set at Muskegon and Kalamazoo with 62. So far the warmest I have seen for GRR is 58.  I have 60 at this time but the clouds are now moving in.

GR always seems lower than everyone else.  I've had a lot of sun and had 60 as well.  

[MIKEKC]

OH CLINTON, that silly NAM trying to fire us up. This is at 84hours and it's in your area and moving into KC. Blinding snow....

It's fooling us again, isn't it? Or maybe the north trend is starting...3-4 days out