February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, iFred said:

That span on 410 between Bonney Lake to Buckley can be the difference between 80mph gusts and no snow to heavy fog and flurries. Bonney Lake and Prairie Ridge can also get some kind of weird Rainier turbulence too, I have no idea what the proper name for it is but it happened once while growing up there, Autumn of 2006 I think. Bonney Lake got some 60 to 70mph winds all afternoon while Buckley and Sumner were calm and quiet. A house down the road from my home had a tree go through it and we had the local news out discussing the "freak windstorm". If it wasn't for that event, the Hanukkah Eve windstorm may have done some real damage.

You mean like, turbulence in the lee of Mt Rainier during east wind events? That is sick.

[SnowWillarrive]

43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It should be noted we are really close to a snow situation Wednesday night.  Just need it a tiny bit colder going into it.

How low you think the snow level will be? 

[TT-SEA]

For me... its ironic that many people on here talk about moving away because our winters suck while winter doesn't really bother me now.   Quite a flip over last 20 years.

And this Super Bowl sucks!  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

For me... its ironic that many people on here talk about moving away because our winters suck while winter doesn't really bother me now.   Quite a flip over last 20 years.

And this Super Bowl sucks!  

Not enough snow is what bothers me. But it is extra special when it does 

[Mercurial]

Up to 2-3" unforecasted/unmodeled snow today.  Hard to measure exactly, since it didn't start sticking to pavement until a few hours ago.  Sneaky little system. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And the ironic reality is that you are a native who hates it and desperately wants to leave and I am transplant who actually likes it way more than you.   Case in point!

I'm not from Washington. 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm not from Washington. 

[TT-SEA]

26 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm not from Washington. 

That might be a technicality.   My sons weren't born here but they are essentially natives. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That might be a technicality.   My sons weren't born here but they are essentially natives. 

They born the same place as me. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They born the same place as me. 

Yes sir!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Everyone’s favorite uncle says he has a present for me, @Port Angeles Foothiller, @MR.SNOWMIZER, @ShawniganLake, and @Chewbacca Defense.

[bainbridgekid]

Turned into a sneaky great Super Bowl after a really slow start.

Thought I'd be rooting for the 9ers, but it was a very rare game when I couldn't get myself to root for either team, so just found myself always rooting for whichever team was losing to tie it and keep the game going. 

[bainbridgekid]

00z back to showing snow Seattle North Wednesday night. Low stays South longer and keeps offshow flow going longer 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Turned into a sneaky great Super Bowl after a really slow start.

Thought I'd be rooting for the 9ers, but it was a very rare game when I couldn't get myself to root for either team, so just found myself always rooting for whichever team was losing to tie it and keep the game going. 

The fans lost.

[bainbridgekid]

Perfect track on the 00z dumps 6-10" of very wet snow for much of Western Washington Wednesday night. EXTREMELY tenuous setup that would require a near perfect track and enough low level cold to penetrate South in the 24 hours before it, but . . . 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Perfect track on the 00z dumps 6-10" of snow for much of Western Washington. Wednesday night. EXTREMELY tenuous setup that would require a near perfect track and enough low level cold to penetrate South in the 24 hours before it, but . . . 

Let's do it!

[Weiner Warrior]

It's coming!!

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

It's coming!!

Pull out! Help control the pet population!

[TacomaWx]

16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Perfect track on the 00z dumps 6-10" of very wet snow for much of Western Washington Wednesday night. EXTREMELY tenuous setup that would require a near perfect track and enough low level cold to penetrate South in the 24 hours before it, but . . . 

 

lol temperature is 36-41 the entire event IMBY. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Perfect track on the 00z dumps 6-10" of very wet snow for much of Western Washington Wednesday night. EXTREMELY tenuous setup that would require a near perfect track and enough low level cold to penetrate South in the 24 hours before it, but . . . 

 

It'll trend south. It has to. Please trend south. And when it trends south, it'll trend 3-4 degrees colder, and salem will get a foot, I'll get 2 feet. Please.

 

Im curious, is my fantasy still possible?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

It'll trend south. It has to. Please trend south. And when it trends south, it'll trend 3-4 degrees colder, and salem will get a foot, I'll get 2 feet. Please.

 

Im curious, is my fantasy still possible?

 

Probably not, but just as likely as those snow totals in the Puget Sound region.

[bainbridgekid]

Full loop of the storm

I will say, the ingredients are there for a surprise dump of wet snow. 

1. Cold high in BC pushing South.

2. Storm approaching from the SW with moisture extending well North of the low.

Getting these ingredients to come together perfectly for meaningful lowland snow is still a challenge (maybe 10-20% chance IMO)

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

lol temperature is 36-41 the entire event IMBY. 

Mostly 33-34 up in Seattle and Everett though, could trend south and workout for you!

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

43 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

00z back to showing snow Seattle North Wednesday night. Low stays South longer and keeps offshow flow going longer 

 

Maybe a marginal snow event 500 foot plus. Unless euro comes in colder. I’m going to check the gfs temps.

[snow_wizard]

Sure wasn't expecting a wildly snowy GFS run.  Just goes to show how touchy this situation is.  If we can bring in slightly more cold than is being shown it might work out well.  The amount of moisture has gone kind of bonkers now.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sure wasn't expecting a wildly snowy GFS run.  Just goes to show how touchy this situation is.  If we can bring in slightly more cold than is being shown it might work out well.  The amount of moisture has gone kind of bonkers now.

I’m not that surprised after last gefs run.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the surface pressure layout is perfect with the potential event.  Just imagine if a little more cold air was in play.  It's still possible there could be.

[Slushy Inch]

Gefs is better than 18z so far. And 18z was a good run.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’m not that surprised after last gefs run.

Good point.  There were quite a few colder members.  It would be something if this actually happens.  If the thing verifies any colder than shown we could do it.

[snow_wizard]

The baroclinicity being show is incredible.  The zero line just stays over the Central Puget Sound forever, and then the northerly gradient wins for a time.

[RentonHill]

19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Full loop of the storm

I will say, the ingredients are there for a surprise dump of wet snow. 

1. Cold high in BC pushing South.

2. Storm approaching from the SW with moisture extending well North of the low.

Getting these ingredients to come together perfectly for meaningful lowland snow is still a challenge (maybe 10-20% chance IMO)

This would be just the thing for the autistic GFS to nail. I’m all in

[snow_wizard]

Mini cold shot at day 9 now.  This run also has reasonably cold mins on Saturday and Monday.

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

lol temperature is 36-41 the entire event IMBY. 

Those GFS snow maps are always tripping on shrooms. I remember once last winter they showed a foot here with a modeled sfc temp of 38°F & a near isothermal BL.

End result was of course rain with some white missiles mixed in.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I don't know how good of a model this is, but the UKMET puts it a little more south! All its gotta do is trend another 130 miles south of that, and then I'll be happy! BTW ignore the gem and nam.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

This would be just the thing for the autistic GFS to nail. I’m all in

It actually looks good on paper so to speak.  Very good chance this verifies a click colder than what's being shown if recent history has anything to say about it.

[MossMan]

56 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Perfect track on the 00z dumps 6-10" of very wet snow for much of Western Washington Wednesday night. EXTREMELY tenuous setup that would require a near perfect track and enough low level cold to penetrate South in the 24 hours before it, but . . . 

 

Going to trend north by a few miles! And this will be just the warning shot, the main dish will be towards the end of the month! 

[TT-SEA]

Worth noting that quite a few EPS members show lowland snow as well.

 

[Cloud]

Could be a nice day to call in on Wednesday. North of Seattle into Everett tends to get snowy for this setup. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I don't know how good of a model this is, but the UKMET puts it a little more south! All its gotta do is trend another 130 miles south of that, and then I'll be happy! BTW ignore the gem and nam.

Nice to see something showing it south of here.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth noting that quite a few EPS members show lowland snow as well.

 

This might have something to it.  Not going to get too excited yet though.