February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The suspense is killing me.  When is this cold bubble going to break the surface?  This is a week ago and it still hasn't.  It has got to be VERY close!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Could someone post the EPS snow map? 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

My son in salem has had 6" of sleet and zr since Feb 2021, and 7" of snow. Pretty crazy if you ask me

The ZR and sleet number is insane.

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The suspense is killing me.  When is this cold bubble going to break the surface?  This is a week ago and it still hasn't.  It has got to be VERY close!

I'm far from an expert on that, but since cold water is denser than warm water, seems like it could take a bit for that cold pocket to surface without a driving force/storm nearby, right?

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks pretty similar to last Feb and March where most of y'all did well. There was only one location that didn't for 2022-23 really... It's pretty incredible that we've had more ice accumulation here than snow since Dec 2021.

Happy birthday man.

To be fair, a lot of areas around downtown Seattle also didn't see much last winter. Hopefully the south/central valley can see some good snow in the next few years. That ice number is crazy

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Could someone post the EPS snow map? 

I expect every run will be good for your area.

[FrozenBites]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't believe I'm 60 today!  I used to think that was old....

Happy Birthday! Hope you have many more to come!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I'm far from an expert on that, but since cold water is denser than warm water, seems like it could take a bit for that cold pocket to surface without a driving force/storm nearby, right?

In this case the normal progression is both warm and cold anoms sink in the west and upwell in the east.  If you look at the time lapse that cold bubble has upwelled a lot over the past month.

It's like a conveyer belt with the belt on top of the rollers going way and the belt under the rollers going the other.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, FrozenBites said:

Happy Birthday! Hope you have many more to come!

So do I!

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Partially because it has serious terrain bleed issues and only has 10:1 ratio map available.    Its not to be taken literally obviously.   The operational run is much more meaningful.  

I always thought the EPS was the holy grail with stuff this far out.  We are still talking a ways down the road with this.  You seriously feel comfortable with a no lowland snow call when the models are showing snow over the ocean along the WA Coast?

[snow_wizard]

Also...the terrain bleed thing makes no sense with snow being shown over the ocean either.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I always thought the EPS was the holy grail with stuff this far out.  We are still talking a ways down the road with this.  You seriously feel comfortable with a no lowland snow call when the models are showing snow over the ocean along the WA Coast?

Exactly! If it's showing 2+" of snow for everywhere north of the 45th parallel way out in the ocean, then I'd say  western Washington/Oregon have a pretty good shot at this.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I always thought the EPS was the holy grail with stuff this far out.  We are still talking a ways down the road with this.  You seriously feel comfortable with a no lowland snow call when the models are showing snow over the ocean along the WA Coast?

I didn't say no lowland snow.  Of course there will be some in places.    But the EPS mean snowfall map is not meant to be taken literally for the reasons stated.   You think the entire area is going to get 1-2 feet of snow in the next 2 weeks?    Of course not.  You know not to take the EPS snowfall map for the next 15 days literally.  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I didn't say no lowland snow.  Of course there will be some in places.    But the EPS mean snowfall map is not meant to be taken literally for the reasons stated.   You think the entire area is going to get 1-2 feet of snow in the next 2 weeks?    Of course not.  You know not to take the EPS snowfall map for the next 15 days literally.  

True.

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So do I!

Hope you get snow soon for your birthday. And not just a little. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

To be fair, a lot of areas around downtown Seattle also didn't see much last winter. Hopefully the south/central valley can see some good snow in the next few years. That ice number is crazy

Last winter was fair.  The big problem is all of the snows were frustratingly small.  Just no satisfying 1/10 mile visibility burst of snowfall.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Hope you get snow soon for your birthday. And not just a little. 

I've actually had snow on my birthday a few times.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

True.

Its also much worse in cold onshore flow situations.   It just compounds 10:1 ratio errors across 50 members and it gets worse the farther out you go in time.    To the point that the total map becomes ridiculous.   But it probably does mean there will be snow at times in places.    

[MossMan]

58 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

'75 El Camino over here

My first car/truck!! 

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I always thought the EPS was the holy grail with stuff this far out.  We are still talking a ways down the road with this.  You seriously feel comfortable with a no lowland snow call when the models are showing snow over the ocean along the WA Coast?

The euro has had a problem with coastline snow the last few years. Seems like it thinks everything is shifted west 5-15 miles. 

[MossMan]

I bet when Tim turns 60 he will want snow in late February and into March as well! Jim’s wisdom will have rubbed off on him by then! 

[RentonHill]

And i dont think those meteograms are straight from ECMWF. They are derived by the website somehow based on the maps/data they get from ECMWF. So there is something potentially off with WxBell (or maybe its the right one?). CHeck out Boeing Field snow from WeatherModels vs Wxbell for this 12z run

 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

And i dont think those meteograms are straight from ECMWF. They are derived by the website somehow based on the maps/data they get from ECMWF. So there is something potentially off with WxBell (or maybe its the right one?). CHeck out Boeing Field snow from WeatherModels vs Wxbell for this 12z run

 

I dont see any ratio specified by Weathermodels, maybe they use Kuchera or something other than 10:1 ratio and that explains it rather than any difference in plotting the data they get some ECMWF differently. 

[RentonHill]

Here's 10:1 maps from both sites. Weathermodels doesn't have a pacific northwest map but they do have the states one. 

[AlTahoe]

I hope Dewey makes it through the Vegas super storm! My flight has been delayed 4 times already lol

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I always thought the EPS was the holy grail with stuff this far out.  We are still talking a ways down the road with this.  You seriously feel comfortable with a no lowland snow call when the models are showing snow over the ocean along the WA Coast?

It's the holy grail with big picture 500mb pattern stuff. Its low resolution makes it way less accurate for surface level features and details that determine lowland snowfall. Happens all the time it shows way more widespread lowland snow than could ever happen given the pattern its predicting and this is one of those times.

[HuskyMaestro]

53F and cloudy, on and off showers. Some exciting times ahead for late Feb and early March, would be pretty happy for an overnight 1" of snow in my backyard, though still hoping for a last 2019/2021 hoorah in Fife before I move out sooner or later

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Here's 10:1 maps from both sites. Weathermodels doesn't have a pacific northwest map but they do have the states one. 

These maps are dumb, when was the last time forks had 24 inches of snow. 

[westcoastexpat]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Its still fairly mild in the lowlands even with the second trough.    Just not a good lowland snow producing pattern... but great for the mountains.  

 

Definitely looking more and more like a mountain snows set up.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

These maps are dumb, when was the last time forks had 24 inches of snow. 

2 weeks ago when it said 25 i think. They did end up with a dusting though.

[westcoastexpat]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

These maps are dumb, when was the last time forks had 24 inches of snow. 

Between the terrain bleed and the reality that 10:1 ratio ain't happening in this set up,  these maps are just a joke for sure

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely looking more and more like a mountain snows set up.

A map like this has nothing to do with it snowing. I have had 10 inches of snow and 42 degrees 4 hrs later. This just shows it wont be below freezing during the day.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

Between the terrain bleed and the reality that 10:1 ratio ain't happening in this set up,  these maps are just a joke for sure

I had over 10.1 ratio last event. I measured it, also did the math at Bremerton airport and came up with the same result. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

Between the terrain bleed and the reality that 10:1 ratio ain't happening in this set up,  these maps are just a joke for sure

You need to go back to your fake January optimism! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely looking more and more like a mountain snows set up.

Fore sure mountains will get it good.

[MossMan]

NO SNOW FOR YOU! 

[Front Ranger]

Andrew will do WELL.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The suspense is killing me.  When is this cold bubble going to break the surface?  This is a week ago and it still hasn't.  It has got to be VERY close!

Happy Birthday Jim.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Seems like today is underachieving some temp wise. Always a nice change of pace.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F and cloudy.