February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The Sunday morning snow on the 12z GFS was impressive.  Hope to see some more support going forward.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess it was Sunday morning on the 12z GFS.

Do quoted posts not show up on the Commodore 64?

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

You forgot "worst of the worst"

"There will be no freezing rain event in Seattle. Way too warm"

-Cliff Mass

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

It seems like the summer warmth in the PNW (which has been easily greater than anywhere else in the country the past decade or so, anomaly-wise) has been driven simply by very persistent above normal heights over the region. More so than a persistently strong 4CH.

 

The key question for future decades is the extent to which the Clausius-Clapeyron moisture feedbacks are influencing this pattern. 

Saturation vapor pressure is increasing at 7% per deg C but RH tries to stay constant so the atmosphere is driving a s*** ton of spring and summertime evapotranspiration that wasn't happening before. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The key question for future decades is the extent to which the Clausius-Clapeyron moisture feedbacks are influencing this pattern. 

Saturation vapor pressure is increasing at 7% per deg C but RH tries to stay constant so the atmosphere is driving a s*** ton of spring and summertime evapotranspiration that wasn't happening before. 

Are you doing a Phil impression here??    

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Are you doing a Phil impression here??    

Someone has to do it while he is out working on his tan. 

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Look at all that cold air mixing with that front. Going to be dynamic.

Such a fun week! I wish we had more of this during the winter. 

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Mid 30s is often cold enough for snow with heavy precip rates.  It could happen

ECMWF is a notch warmer early Thursday morning.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

33 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It is interesting, if you watch what is happening the front is developing with a bunch of cold air filtering in behind so temps could fall fairly fast on the back edge. Ana fronts are cool and it could work out in oregon if there is enough cold air mixed with the heavy precip. It looks like it could almost do that around the sound still.

Yeah, I'm watching Thursday very closely for the WV. If it ends up a couple degrees cooler than forecast, quite a few places there could quickly end up with up to half a foot, especially Eugene.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The key question for future decades is the extent to which the Clausius-Clapeyron moisture feedbacks are influencing this pattern. 

Saturation vapor pressure is increasing at 7% per deg C but RH tries to stay constant so the atmosphere is driving a s*** ton of spring and summertime evapotranspiration that wasn't happening before. 

I was talking to my Mom about this concern yesterday at dinner. 

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Do quoted posts not show up on the Commodore 64?

 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Meteorological spring is basically here.

Yeah, big severe weather outbreaks further north aren't unheard of by the end of February. 2012 and 2017 were similar.

[snow_wizard]

Legit snow threat Friday morning on this run.  The numbers check out for this area at least.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Oregon is due for a storm. It’s been a month 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

AMAZING run!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48F and cloudy with some light SE winds.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

48F and cloudy with some light SE winds.

soon you'll be saying "33 degrees with heavy snow" ITS COMINNGG!

[snow_wizard]

And Saturday morning.  Temp profile is more than good enough with this one.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This could be a very impressive and fun stretch of days coming up for the region.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And Saturday morning.  Temp profile is more than good enough with this one.

We better get something over the next 5 days. 

[Weiner Warrior]

[snow_wizard]

Pretty much impossible to not have a lot of people on here score if this run is correct.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty much impossible to not have a lot of people on here score if this run is correct.

Pretty much impossible for the 18z GFS to be incorrect.

[TacomaWx]

I’ve never doubted gfs snow maps 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

We better get something over the next 5 days. 

Tim says it will be too warm for SnowToarrive

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

We better get something over the next 5 days. 

It would sure make me feel better.  Leave off on a good note this winter and then next winter it's showtime!

We have so many aces in the deck for next winter.  La Nina, strong Nino to Nina transition, plus QBO, and the recent propensity for extreme blocking during the winter months.

[SnowySeeker50]

18z never dissapoints. Currently 41f and raining

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty much impossible for the 18z GFS to be incorrect.

You're damm straight!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

18z never dissapoints. Currently 41f and raining

Hitting the booze pretty good on this one.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty much impossible for the 18z GFS to be incorrect.

In all seriousness the temp profile actually supports snow on some of these.  A lot of times it shows snow when it's obviously too warm.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37.6˚F and light snow. Interesting to have the temperature drop as the afternoon wears on this late in the season. Also interesting to see the precip start as snow right off the bat, despite it being in the low 40’s. Really shows what dry air and cold temperatures aloft can do.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

37.6˚F and light snow. Interesting to have the temperature drop as the afternoon wears on this late in the season. Also interesting to see the precip start as snow right off the bat, despite it being in the low 40’s. Really shows what dry air and cold temperatures aloft can do.

Mostly rain over here now. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Early next week looks the most interesting if we can sneak a little continental air in from the north.   A slushy inch on a 42/33 type day is kind of meh.  We can do a lot better into the first week of March.  

[BLI snowman]

59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That March 2012 anafront DUMPED accumulating snow across the mid valley during the middle of the afternoon. That was three weeks later too. 

That front stalled so hard it actually went backwards and gave NW OR and SW WA a decent snowfall the next night.

[fubario]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

An inch would be something at least.

heh

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Yeah, I don't remember having much strong south wind these past few years.

We've had some big east wind storms though. 12/22/22 brought some power outages here and 1/13/24 was extremely intense, strongest east wind I've seen here, I'm surprised we kept power. There's a house nearby that unfortunately got crushed by a big tree during that.

Interestingly, the last east wind that really ripped up here in my corner of Clark County was 9/7/2020. That was full mountain wave and probably hit 40mph even here, so you knew it was gonna be bad everywhere else...

[Deweydog]

18z equals brilliant wife! I’ll never hear the end of it.  

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Early next week looks the most interesting if we can sneak a little continental air in from the north.   A slushy inch on a 42/33 type day is kind of meh.  We can do a lot better into the first week of March.  

You have a reasonable shot at getting some seepage up there.  The chances down here are a lot lower though not non existent.

[bainbridgekid]

18z GFS got rid of the Saturday night snow for Puget Sound, but replaced it with more snow Friday night and Sunday night.

Going to be very difficult tracking things the next week with how many different meandering weak systems come through here.