MossMan Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking at the seasonal long term models, it looks like we stay more or less above average through December. Then a signal begins emerging for a cooler than average January, and a very strong signal for below average temperatures February-April. Which makes sense for a moderate Nina. All for it if we have a February 2019 redux! Or a January 1950...That would work as well I guess. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 It's cleared up the last couple hours. Sitting at 64 with a slight breeze. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking at the seasonal long term models, it looks like we stay more or less above average through December. Then a signal begins emerging for a cooler than average January, and a very strong signal for below average temperatures February-April. Which makes sense for a moderate Nina. That seems about right. So basically it is a textbook Nina. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Beautiful October day... 3 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Beautiful October day... I see colors Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: I see colors Some leaves are starting to turn now for sure. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Suns out here...61 degrees now. Nice change from the several day fog episode. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Rainfall stats so far for 2020 by month here: January- 12.44" February-4.29" March-4.89" April-1.99" May-6.55" June-5.20" July-0.11" August-0.44" September-3.50" Year total so far: 39.41" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Euro's going places... 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 Eric Fisher @ericfisher Some new Euro seasonal guidance for peak winter remains mild in the east. We'll start digging into this season's indicators toward the end of the month/early Nov 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 5, 2020 Report Share Posted October 5, 2020 CFS going nuts with the Nina. All recent runs have a strong Nina, and 4-6 have a Super Nina. Probably won't be that strong, but that is insane. On another note, despite the pattern shown on the seasonal Euro, it still shows warmer than normal temps for every month except February, where it shows normal. Even has January way above normal. I think the pattern shown is more important than what the temps showed. And it is a very strong signal for a seasonal map. 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Started cloudy but turned out really nice here today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 At least the mountains should get slammed. I want to do some snowshoeing if I can get up to the Cascades. 1 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Down to 59 degrees. Looks like tomorrow might be the warmest day until May! (Or January) Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 65/53 currently 63* What a gorgeous afternoon! Kept thinking Randy must be putting his Christmas lights up on such a fine day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 The models are beginning to look decidedly crisp as we move forward. The ECMWF is really liking the idea of some fairly cold GOA blocking in the 5 to 10 day period. The 12z looks highly capable of bringing the first frost for some areas. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 63/55 here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 69 here today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: 65/53 currently 63* What a gorgeous afternoon! Kept thinking Randy must be putting his Christmas lights up on such a fine day 11/14/20...Unless it’s raining/snowing/icing, or I have COVID. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: CFS going nuts with the Nina. All recent runs have a strong Nina, and 4-6 have a Super Nina. Probably won't be that strong, but that is insane. On another note, despite the pattern shown on the seasonal Euro, it still shows warmer than normal temps for every month except February, where it shows normal. Even has January way above normal. I think the pattern shown is more important than what the temps showed. And it is a very strong signal for a seasonal map. I have no idea how 500mb anoms like that would bring warm weather for us. Very suspect. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Looking forward to the pattern change. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 Now, we've seen Super Ninos but a Super Nina? Have we had one before? 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 79/31 today. Smoke a tiny bit thicker while posting now. But doable air quality. 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I have no idea how 500mb anoms like that would bring warm weather for us. Very suspect. And I am not seeing the maps directly from the ECMWF. Perhaps it is the way that the computers at weather.us interprets the maps. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: And I am not seeing the maps directly from the ECMWF. Perhaps it is the way that the computers at weather.us interprets the maps. #EuroGate 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: CFS going nuts with the Nina. All recent runs have a strong Nina, and 4-6 have a Super Nina. Probably won't be that strong, but that is insane. On another note, despite the pattern shown on the seasonal Euro, it still shows warmer than normal temps for every month except February, where it shows normal. Even has January way above normal. I think the pattern shown is more important than what the temps showed. And it is a very strong signal for a seasonal map. That January pattern looks active and probably wet. Perhaps stormy even. Not really a cold pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 hours ago, iFred said: In July, all of the seasonal forecasts were pointing a picture with a strong SE ridge, little to no blocking in Greenland, and a strong ridge the Northern Pacific that drifts east by March. On one hand, this looks like default Nina, on the other, these are some serious looking patterns. FWIW, it seams that both the CANSIPS and Euro monthlies have been halfway decent with the broad strokes. So maybe there is something to this. I’m sure someone will douse water on this emerging enthusiasm and explain how strong Ninas are only good for east of the Cascades and we’ll probably just have 50° and rain. I would rather have a weak Nina. Around here they tend to be colder with more consistent snowcover. Strong events are all over the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: CFS going nuts with the Nina. All recent runs have a strong Nina, and 4-6 have a Super Nina. Probably won't be that strong, but that is insane. On another note, despite the pattern shown on the seasonal Euro, it still shows warmer than normal temps for every month except February, where it shows normal. Even has January way above normal. I think the pattern shown is more important than what the temps showed. And it is a very strong signal for a seasonal map. The CFS seems to focus on the moment. If it continues strengthening at this rate, then it will end up super strong. It was like that with the 2010 event. When strengthening stops for a little bit, it will move away from predicting a strong event or maybe not. In some respects this event is similar to 2007, but the QBO is different. The peak could very well end up like 2007. I'm just guessing here. Any experts want to weigh in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: I would rather have a weak Nina. Around here they tend to be colder with more consistent snowcover. Strong events are all over the place. I got stuck in a snow drift on a super windy day up at Meadows in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 As I just posted in the BC forum, regarding the coming winter: I’m thinking lots of cold rain in the lowlands and heavy snows in the mountains. There will be some lowland snow, but not an astounding amount, more like a typical amount. In other words, I’m playing the odds based on what strong La Niña years tend to be like. Skiers should be happy this winter. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, El_Nina said: I got stuck in a snow drift on a super windy day up at Meadows in January. 1/11? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: 1/11? Got about 5.5" with that event in 2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 August Complex has broken a million acres. Models have gotten quite a bit worse for that general region rainfall-wise, too. Could be a while. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 00z GFS in 15 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Gradient Keeper Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted October 6, 2020 Report Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: 69 here today. Congrats. 1 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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