Deweydog Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 20 minutes ago, MossMan said: PNA is looking good! Except for that one Tim member! I think it’s best no one be able to see Tim’s member. 2 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Is that the 2nd low just off the Washington coast? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Is that the 2nd low just off the Washington coast? Ya, what a storm!!!! Lame 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 GEFS weeklies want to repeat the vortex of 2019/20. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Is that the 2nd low just off the Washington coast? Cute little meso low 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Windstorm is over I think. Latest discussion says 7pm for an end but it's been dead calm for nearly an hour. Light rain and pleasant. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Winds might not have materialized as expected in some places, but at least we have this going for us... Lower pressure ≠ stronger, though. The pressure gradient the eyewall of even a mediocre hurricane is many orders of magnitude tighter than that of a broad extratropical cyclone. Also antecedent pressures tend to be higher in the tropics, so it’s all relative. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 47 minutes ago, Phil said: GEFS weeklies want to repeat the vortex of 2019/20. I guess this can be the thing we blame instead of climate change if this winter ends up mild. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Liking my December call more and more everyday. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Liking my December call more and more everyday. I lost my post-it note for that, torchy December? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Looks like wind is still way harder to forecast than snow! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 We should be Golden by mid March! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Way to kick us while we are down. Thanks a lot, Phil. Continues the narrative that we don't get strong storms on the west coast I think ones like the Columbus Day Storm would have stacked up to an upper-tier hurricane. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Well, glad we tracked that windstorm! Definitely needed a heads up on the 25 mph gusts we received. Can't say I wasn't prepared! I’ll trade u wind for cold anomalies. We’ve had 50mph winds 4 times already this month. Way early for that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Way to kick us while we are down. Thanks a lot, Phil. Hey at least you have a cold winter to look forward to. Unlike me. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 29 minutes ago, Phil said: GEFS weeklies want to repeat the vortex of 2019/20. So no snow until Jan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Hey at least you have a cold winter to look forward to. Unlike me. Colder and snowier than Phil only colder and snowier? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: So no snow until Jan Less of an issue under -ENSO/+QBO. Wouldn’t hurt to have it weaker, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just got blasted with a downpour. Dropped 0.33" and brings us to an even 7" on the month. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Hey at least you have a cold winter to look forward to. Unlike me. Dec and Jan in the PNW are like Jul-Sep in DC. No matter what the atmospheric configuration is, they will almost always find a way to torch. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: Dec and Jan in the PNW are like Jul-Sep in DC. No matter what the atmospheric configuration is, they will invariably find a way to torch. Decembers 2008, 2009, 2013, and 2016 were all quite cold and largely on par with the colder Decembers in the 20th century. It's January that isn't remotely close to those same benchmarks. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said: So no snow until Jan Like Phil said, not as much of an issue this winter. You can't get a January 1950 event without a true arctic blast of course, but the PNW west side has seen many good snows over the years without it. And the mountains and the eastern parts of the PNW don't need it at all, average temps work for us, and slightly below works even better. Really, how often does the PV get dislodged and head over the PNW? I am thinking not that often. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Dec and Jan in the PNW are like Jul-Sep in the PNW. No matter what the atmospheric configuration is, they will almost always find a way to torch. Fixed. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 49 minutes ago, Phil said: GEFS weeklies want to repeat the vortex of 2019/20. I'm starting to get a real 99-00' vibe. On the ground level this November could not be any more different than last. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 We've suffered some pretty significant storm damage today. I've been able to get things cleaned up (stood the garbage can back up), but it's not looking good for that scraggly assed shrub. FEMA has been notified and is en-route to perform a damage assessment. RIP scraggly assed shrub 2 1 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Like Phil said, not as much of an issue this winter. You can't get a January 1950 event without a true arctic blast of course, but the PNW west side has seen many good snows over the years without it. And the mountains and the eastern parts of the PNW don't need it at all, average temps work for us, and slightly below works even better. Really, how often does the PV get dislodged and head over the PNW? I am thinking not that often. Definitely less of an issue this winter. See 2016/17, 2013/14, 2010/11, etc, all were Niña/+QBO without SSW events. The December 2008 event technically preceded the SSW..that was a backwards-pathway wave-2 type event. Not common. Early winter in PNW doesn’t have much of a correlation to NAM/PV anyway. January and February display a more profound connection, though it’s more consistent outside Niña/+QBO. Mid/late season SSW events in 1988/89, 2018/19, 2008/09, 2003/04, 2017/18, 1984/85, etc. Also late December 1998, early December 1996. I’m sure there are more. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm starting to get a real 99-00' vibe. On the ground level this November could not be any more different than last. A 1999/00 (or a 1975/76) is a worst-case outcome, if everything that can go wrong somehow manages to do so. Don’t think it’s likely, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Seems like my area only gets high winds when high winds are not predicted. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Looks like snowpack on Mt. Hood is about 400% of normal to date. Good start to the season! 3 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, Phil said: 1999 is a worst-case outcome should everything that can go wrong, do so. It was also pretty close to solar max, if that means anything. This winter has some of the lowest solar activity since the early 1800s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, Omegaraptor said: It was also pretty close to solar max, if that means anything. This winter has some of the lowest solar activity since the early 1800s. One wildcard is the effect those Australian wildfires had on the tropical stratosphere. I’ve been reading up on it, and one could argue we’ve been mimicking the stratospheric thermal profile of a post-volcanic regime since late 2019. Not to mention the Antarctic SSW in Sep/Oct 2019 triggered wave activity that screwed with the QBO this year. It’s a westerly (positive) event by the most relevant metrics, but it’s also not propagating normally. I miss normal, (semi) predictable seasonal progressions. The last several years have been migraine inducing from a seasonal forecasting standpoint. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Getting some heavy rain again this evening. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Getting some heavy rain again this evening. Just pouring here. My downspouts can't keep up and there is water everywhere! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fircrest said: Just pouring here. My downspouts can't keep up and there is water everywhere! We’re in a long band of heavy rain...might keep up for awhile. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: We’re in a long band of heavy rain...might keep up for awhile. For sure. There is even some hail mixing in now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We could always see that polar vortex set up over Alaska for 2-3 months like 1999-00. FWIW that was the year Alaska had it’s coldest 850mb temperature ever recorded. At least in the radiosonde dataset I’m using. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 heavy squalls over me the last 30 mins or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Winter is saved!!!!! As I was getting ready to take the garbage cans down to the road!! 1 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 Holy crap! I was just looking on the Mesonet for highest windspeed from the storm and found this one. Solander Island which is just off the West Coast of Vancouver Island. At the peak they had sustained 81 with gusts to 93. That is flat out nasty! https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=CWRU&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 18, 2020 Report Share Posted November 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Holy crap! I was just looking on the Mesonet for highest windspeed from the storm and found this one. Solander Island which is just off the West Coast of Vancouver Island. At the peak they had sustained 81 with gusts to 93. That is flat out nasty! https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=CWRU&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 Wonder how many trees fell up there today... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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