Link Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 4 Look up 1 Pacific Redwood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 5 hours ago, Jesse said: Meant to post these earlier, but there were some great early season snow conditions up on Hood this weekend. Snowshoed the PCT in the Barlow Pass area, then to Enid Lake by Gov’t Camp for sunset. Easily 2+ snow around Barlow, maybe a foot or so near Gov’t. Nice! I got my lay off notice last week so now that I know I have my severance coming, I pulled the trigger on a pair of MSR's earlier tonight. I tried to get some last January, but I fall in the "big and tall" category, and the aircraft carrier sized snow shoes were all sold out. As it is the pair I was originally going to get is already out of stock, so I had to go with plan B. Hopefully I will have some good pictures to share from around Mt Baker this winter. 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 00z GFS Ensembles - Day 10-16 GIF. Also showing a signal for retrogression. Hmmm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 I'm getting pretty intrigued by the latest model runs. Quite a myriad of possibilities beginning to emerge for things to get fun perhaps sooner than we had thought. Two of the past four GFS runs have actually gotten petty cold in week 2. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS Ensembles - Day 10-16 GIF. Also showing a signal for retrogression. Hmmm! No visible cold available, yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Hmmm. It turns out the GFS suite of models is liking the idea of a Maritime Continent MJO wave emerging soon. No wonder the model trends have been good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Back to the EURO again Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: No visible cold available, yet. Yup, not there yet. YET. 6z GFS in 2 hours 52 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: No visible cold available, yet. Obviously. We're just kicking around possibilities. Often times retrogressions lead to good things. In actuality things look pretty promising to be into something good by mid December or maybe even a bit sooner. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yup, not there yet. YET. 6z GFS in 2 hours 52 minutes Some GFS runs are getting really close though. A couple of recent runs showing sub -5 850s as we get into December. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Day 8 Now the block builds westward Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 I like the fact we are going to get some fake cold before the good pattern comes also. The 12z ECMWF showed SEA dropping to freezing on 4 different days out of the next 10. We'll see how the 0z looks shortly. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Hmmm. It turns out the GFS suite of models is liking the idea of a Maritime Continent MJO wave emerging soon. No wonder the model trends have been good. The GEFS has it going to phase 5, which is a warm phase for the PNW. The Canadian, though, has it going for phase 7, which is colder for the PNW. The Euro seems to have the MJO pretty much nil by Dec. 8th. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Day 9'er not what I was hoping to see, but it is after Day 6-7 after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 No doubt the Pacific is being slowed way down on this Euro run. I like where this is going. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The GEFS has it going to phase 5, which is a warm phase for the PNW. The Canadian, though, has it going for phase 7, which is colder for the PNW. The Euro seems to have the MJO pretty much nil by Dec. 8th. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php 5 is actually where we get most of our Arctic outbreaks. You are certainly correct the ECMWF MJO forecast is unimpressive. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er not what I was hoping to see, but it is after Day 6-7 after all. The surface pressure map at day 9 is perfection for a good inversion though. At this point blocking and shutting down the Pacific is the big deal. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The surface pressure map at day 9 is perfection for a good inversion though. At this point blocking and shutting down the Pacific is the big deal. Blocking that low out in pacific will serve well for a cold blast into nw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 As a further comment on the MJO. It has always puzzled me why the composites don't show phase 5 being cold for the NW. At least half of the good cold snaps we have seen the past several years are when the MJO is in the Maritime Continent and specifically phase 5. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 5 is actually where we get most of our Arctic outbreaks. You are certainly correct the ECMWF MJO forecast is unimpressive. Phase 5 is generally warm for PNW until the second week of December. Wavelengths grow through December which changes the spatial relationship. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 22 minutes ago, Phil said: Phase 5 is generally warm for PNW until the second week of December. Wavelengths grow through December which changes the spatial relationship. Dewey used to be all about the wavelengths. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: No doubt the Pacific is being slowed way down on this Euro run. I like where this is going. More wildfires next summer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Jesse said: More wildfires next summer? If we are lucky! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Dewey used to be all about the wavelengths. Long or short, neither can save this December! 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 I bet Dewey is feverishly looking at the GLAAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I bet Dewey is feverishly looking at the GLAAM Coupled with my plandemic-related fever, I’m in ruff shape. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 EC Ensemble 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: EC Ensemble What does the 500mb Height Anomaly look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: What does the 500mb Height Anomaly look like? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: Thanks. Endless inversions and east winds. Although the signal is muted, it does seem the Aleutian trough is backing off.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 I'm off. I have a lot of Thanksgiving baking to do today. Root for sexy 12z runs! C'MON Block! C'MON Cold Pool! C'MON Fake Cold! C'MON RETROGRESSION! 6z GFS in 52 minutes 12z GFS in 6 hours 52 minutes 12z GEM in 7 hours 22 minutes 12z ECMWF in 9 hours 7 minutes Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 23 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm off. I have a lot of Thanksgiving baking to do tomorrow. Root for sexy 12z runs! C'MON Block! C'MON Cold Pool! C'MON Fake Cold! C'MON RETROGRESSION! 6z GFS in 52 minutes 12z GFS in 6 hours 52 minutes 12z GEM in 7 hours 22 minutes 12z ECMWF in 9 hours 7 minutes Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!! Ditto. Early morning and the overnight GFS would just be a tease like the last 2 times. 42F with the occasional shower but mostly dry. Time for bed. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Some more showers moved through last night to bring yesterday's total up to 0.61". 0.06" today. Total for November is now at 8.51", can't be too far from average. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 It's strange how I like the bleak model runs so much. Things change so fast. That means bad model runs can flip the script super fast just like great model runs can. When we are enjoying great model runs I am constantly nervous because a flip means we flip to bad. When model runs are bleak we have the potential to flip to great. Therefore, I'm just fine with bleak model runs because a fast flip brings the goods. I know bleak runs sometimes come to fruition but I still enjoy the constant state of a possible positive flip as opposed to the opposite. Weird stuff I know but that's how my brain works. Ha! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Mountain passes look beautiful this morning. My parents are getting some snow showers in the Treasure Valley this Thanksgiving Eve, as well. 5 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Showers here with a low of 39. 42 currently. Looks like the passes are getting shellacked this morning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 25, 2020 Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 50 minutes ago, rsktkr said: It's strange how I like the bleak model runs so much. Things change so fast. That means bad model runs can flip the script super fast just like great model runs can. When we are enjoying great model runs I am constantly nervous because a flip means we flip to bad. When model runs are bleak we have the potential to flip to great. Therefore, I'm just fine with bleak model runs because a fast flip brings the goods. I know bleak runs sometimes come to fruition but I still enjoy the constant state of a possible positive flip as opposed to the opposite. Weird stuff I know but that's how my brain works. Ha! I get this. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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