Clinton Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 7 hours ago, Tom said: Happy Friday! #TGIF As hectic and chaotic our lives have been this year, I'm seeing the same theme in the model world. Pretty massive changes showing up right as we approach the Christmas Holiday into the New Year. Both the Bearing Sea Rule and LRC suggest 2 storm systems to hit the southern/eastern Sub. What happens for the Christmas Holiday storm is still in question. Does it indeed phase into a S Stream storm??? Let's see it play out....nonetheless, the forthcoming pattern setting up for the post holiday period and the final week of December could actually put a lot of our Sub in an active pattern ripe for snowfall. I've been looking for a New Years storm (maybe a day or so earlier) to begin showing up. Last night's 00z EPS and the last few runs off the GEFS are flipping towards the 10mb strat pattern which has been advertising a beneficial pattern for us snow enthusiasts. I'll explain below... The Euro's bias of always trying to place a trough along the western NAMER coast is at play here (esp the Euro Weeklies) and the corrections are/have been showing up towards more ridging. The deeper shades of blues in the 10mb strat forecast fade quickly towards the end of Nov and are replaced with warmer anomalies in early Dec that translate (2-3 weeks later) towards (+) anomalies in the Upper Air pattern. The aforementioned pattern is illustrated below in last nights 00z EPS 500mb animation... It's conceivable, that we could be tracking 2 more systems before the year's out after the Christmas storm (27th-28th & 30th - Jan 1st) . The Week 2 snow mean has grown and now there are many more hits showing up across the board. That being said, is there an end of the year rally ahead?? I believe so...and I do think there will be some on here who will remain disapointed (esp out west). I'l end this post with this 10mb Strat forecast which shows just one run but is leading me to believe the "Best is yet to come"....I see you SSW... GEFS sure seems to like the storm you have listed on the 30th-1st. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: GEFS sure seems to like the storm you have listed on the 30th-1st. We should have a storm parade come into the picture...starting off with the Christmas Day storm and then the New Year's one and then another one following that which should all begin to dig into the 4 corners/TX Pan Handle region. I like the set up I'm seeing as we near the beginning of 2021. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 41 minutes ago, Clinton said: GEFS sure seems to like the storm you have listed on the 30th-1st. 12z Euro advertising the southern stream storm parade...finish off 2020 with a bang! If all works out, we should be tracking 3 storms to end the year. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 The EC also has a storm on the 28th and much like a lot of the GEFS members, it has a monster of a storm on the 30th. Good days are ahead we have earned some snow lol. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Looks like cloudy skies will be the dominate feature today w maybe some partial clearing, and that is a big "Maybe." Current temp at 32F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up 2 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 That’s big time for a lot of folks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up The drought areas sure do stand out on that map. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up Impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 37 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up Except for most of Illinois/Indiana 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 18z NAM with a blockbuster of a snow event on Monday...might snow for about 1 hr. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 All righty then.... At everyone above, now suppress south and pile it up. Getting there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 18, 2020 Report Share Posted December 18, 2020 I'm actually getting nervous about what's coming in January, truthfully. Given the euro's biases, there's a glacier coming to my house for 2021. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Quote: Pastelok added that his hunch is that the storm will move over more directly hit areas from Michigan to Indiana, including Chicago, which will lay the snow needed for a white Christmas, just in the nick of time. "There is a storm expected to come up next week and it looks like it may get here just in time for Christmas Eve, so that may leave some snow for that area to have a higher chance at a white Christmas," he said. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 hours ago, bud2380 said: Euro Control with a much snowier picture showing up 3..2..1.. Commence SE trend 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 If the NAM has it's way, we in the Mitt will at least keep the flavor of wintry weather around for the next few days courtesy of a couple waves/clippers. 2m temps will work against much actual accumulation this far south, but mood flakes this time of year > sunny-n-dry. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Impressive wintry signal showing up in the LR with multiple systems on the calendar following the Christmas holiday. Lot's of of potential here for many of us who are stuck in a snow drought to pick up steam in that dept. Prob the best signal yet off tonight's 00z EPS...with blocking developing over the top and systems tracking into what I call the "4 corners Slot"...time to get the party started??? Better late then never... 00z GEFS agreeing towards the same "snowy theme"...can we dream??? 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Got down to 1°F at KFAR, but it's already up to 3 now with a South wind bringing in WAA. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Euro starting to put my Christmas eve storm on the map again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Wow. Arctic air disappears. GFS is trash 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Attm its 33F under cloudy skies. Some snow likely today by pm, which then mixes w rain by evening. Maybe another inch??!! Highs should remain in the 30s. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Currently, light to moderate snow falling and temp holding steady at 34F. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Niko said: Currently, light to moderate snow falling and temp holding steady at 34F. Big old dry slot here, but my office seems bullish on the clipper Monday as of this morning. - Clipper System to Bring Precipitation on Monday A clipper system will slide southeast through the Great Lakes on Monday. This system is better organized than today`s system and we will likely see a bit more in the way of precipitation. Soundings would support mainly snow. It`s possible we see a little bit of rain mix in as surface temperatures will be marginal (around 33F). We could see some accumulation of snow on Monday with 1-3 inch amounts not out of the question at this point. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Niko said: Currently, light to moderate snow falling and temp holding steady at 34F. Seems like you get a little bit of snow everyday, that's awesome! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Seems like you get a little bit of snow everyday, that's awesome! "Detroit Magnet" is coming in play! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 10 hours ago, jaster220 said: If the NAM has it's way, we in the Mitt will at least keep the flavor of wintry weather around for the next few days courtesy of a couple waves/clippers. 2m temps will work against much actual accumulation this far south, but mood flakes this time of year > sunny-n-dry. I don't think today's portion of this is happening (for here), so that leaves Monday's clipper to bring festive flakes (or not). 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 Despite the denseness of the snow pack, it's fading quickly. We are probably down to an inch officially. There is grass showing in open areas. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 KLNK hit 48 yesterday. It felt pretty balmy. Just patches left in shaded areas and piles left. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 12z GFS with a wave train of systems to close out the month and open 2021...looking good... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 19, 2020 Report Share Posted December 19, 2020 This seems awfully optimistic for cold temps. No way this happens if there's no snow pack in December, right? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 17 hours ago, Tom said: 12z GFS with a wave train of systems to close out the month and open 2021...looking good... Aaaaaaaand it's in the time of year where suppression makes storms impossible here . After the 12/23 potential, window's closed here till February. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Aaaaaaaand it's in the time of year where suppression makes storms impossible here . After the 12/23 potential, window's closed here till February. It does appear to be heading that way with stronger blocking developing, thus creating a more active southern stream instead of a dominant early season northern stream. The 00z EPS snow mean shows some snow up your way before the active wave train develops post Christmas coming out of the SW...hope you can score some snow and lay down a snow pack up there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Both the Euro/GFS op are seeing a major warming event across Siberia to finish off December... A major reversal is about to transpire over the next 10 days...from a very cold Strat over the next couple days to a blow torch by Day 10...BIG implications in the near future with regards to the Polar Vortex. The reversal in 10mb temps is an eye popping 40-50+ Celsius! Simply amazing... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Temp at 35F under cloudy skies. A few snowshowers possible today, especially tomorrow as a weak clipper rolls on through. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Went out this morning to get a gourmet breakfast and I gotta tell ya, it was awesome hearing the Christmas songs playing out there. I have to admit though, the art of campanology is kept alive during the holiday season. "Tis the Season Y'all." 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Dont forget y'all check the "Christmas Star" tomorrow, early evening right after sunset, SW corner of the sky. For those of you who have no idea what I am talking about, google it. Very interesting feature. Telescope will be your best tool, if you want to see the famed rings of Saturn's and Jupiter's Great Red Spot. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 39 straight days w no precip up in Sioux Falls, SD 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Clipper Monday looks interesting. Brings it's own cold aloft so flakes "should" fly. NWS says its more white rain tho due to marginal surface temps. Expecting another slushy car-topper. Still, most exciting thing going.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Wow, Euro is actually encouraging for here. It's all nickel and dimers but I'll take anything to finally get a snowpack going at this point. 1 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Meanwhile today, I had a bit of a weenie band come through. However, it started as rain then changed to snow. Therefore, I have a glaze of ice with a coating of snow on top of it. 34*F. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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