December 2020 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks interesting amigo. Have to keep an eye on this weak weekend system. This could be an 1-3inch event.

Yep. Going to keep stacking my pennies & nickles in hopes something bigger looms out there..

[Niko]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Yep. Going to keep stacking my pennies & nickles in hopes something bigger looms out there..

We are due for one and its coming.

[Niko]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Some nice holiday lights out there in the Mitt

 

Excellent pic!

[jaster220]

0z GEM develops a kind of mediocre storm that brings a few inches for SWMI on the 24th, then shows a bomb storm blowing up just east of us like that one did earlier (the OH/PA storm). LES would happen with that scenario to add onto the system snow fwiw. Just one of many options we'll no doubt see in coming days. It may be the more logical one, we'll see..

[Niko]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

0z GEM develops a kind of mediocre storm that brings a few inches for SWMI on the 24th, then shows a bomb storm blowing up just east of us like that one did earlier (the OH/PA storm). LES would happen with that scenario to add onto the system snow fwiw. Just one of many options we'll no doubt see in coming days. It may be the more logical one, we'll see..

I'm thinking this time we will have arctic air in play. This will energize it more. Anyways, major changes coming next week, especially by midweek. What happens is still up in the air. I do like the fact that very cold air will be available.

[hlcater]

One time, I was witness to extreme snowfall rates of 1"/hr. A whole inch in only ONE hour. Barely survived.

[tStacsh]

50 minutes ago, Niko said:

I'm thinking this time we will have arctic air in play. This will energize it more. Anyways, major changes coming next week, especially by midweek. What happens is still up in the air. I do like the fact that very cold air will be available.

The storm is tracking up in Canada now.  Just an Arctic  front with not a lot of moisture.  Mostly rain, again.  Cold lasts for 36 hours and warms up.  

[Grizzcoat]

Christmas Day at NOON-- the Euro- THE GFS-- (only 30F difference for many reading) I'll take the EURO for 2000 Alex

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

The storm is tracking up in Canada now.  Just an Arctic  front with not a lot of moisture.  Mostly rain, again.  Cold lasts for 36 hours and warms up.  

What storm????????  It's just model fantasy at this stage, geesh. btw, is tStacsh stand for (t)rollStacsh? LOL

[clintbeed1993]

While us peasants in the Midwest are desperate for enough snow to cover the ground in time for Christmas, Bloomsburg, PA has gotten over 30 inches in a single day

[Tom]

Ho, Ho, Ho....Santa may be riding his sleigh across the Pole and deliver one of the seasons strongest SSW events of the season....that's gonna leave a mark on the Polar Vortex.  Severe Winter forthcoming???

 

 

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids is now 17.1" below average in the snow fall department. There was a period of light snow fall here yesterday but it was not much more then just flurries. No snow stayed on the ground here at my house. So I reported it as a trace. There could be some snow today but once again it does not look like much. And the upcoming cold snap looks to be short lived. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 23. Here at my house I had a low of 24 and with cloudy skies the current reading here is 28.

[Tom]

@Boston, what a feeling...

 

Current conditions at

Boston, Logan International Airport (KBOS)

Lat: 42.36°NLon: 71.01°WElev: 20ft.

Heavy Snow Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Windy

26°F

Humidity	96%
Wind Speed	NE 29 G 38 mph

[tStacsh]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

What storm????????  It's just model fantasy at this stage, geesh. btw, is tStacsh stand for (t)rollStacsh? LOL

Nope grr swore this tracking our direction.  Hell I quoted them 

[CentralNebWeather]

Was just looking at the web cameras on the 511 Nebraska system.  Very rarely do you see us in Central Nebraska having a snow pack and nothing on the ground in Northern Nebraska, especially around Valentine.  

[Niko]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

What storm????????  It's just model fantasy at this stage, geesh. btw, is tStacsh stand for (t)rollStacsh? LOL

I would not be surprised! Perhaps a make believe twin

[Clinton]

12z NAM good for Chicago and Mich. peeps.

[Niko]

Total snowfall for Detroit w yesterdays snowfall is now 1.6" which makes snowfall total for month at 7.6."

 

 

[Niko]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z NAM good for Chicago and Mich. peeps.

Something to keep an eye on this upcoming weekend.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@Boston, what a feeling...

 

Current conditions at

Boston, Logan International Airport (KBOS)

Lat: 42.36°NLon: 71.01°WElev: 20ft.

Heavy Snow Blowing Snow Freezing Fog and Windy

26°F

Humidity	96%
Wind Speed	NE 29 G 38 mph

Just got off the phone with a woman in Boston area. She said she was out shovelling and it's nasty! Ofc, we've had our mid-December bliz back in 2000 as well. I remember some counties declaring snow emergencies in hometown region where they have a lot more open farm land and drifting issues. I wasn't here then, but Jackson to my east was the regional winner with 20" total. Not quite those totals you see out east but impressive for these parts.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z NAM good for Chicago and Mich. peeps.

Appreciate the thoughts there amigo. So far, temps seem to be keeping our NWS office from buying into this being much if any kind of snow-maker. Hopefully they're wrong.

[Hawkeye]

I was up til 3am following the incredible Binghamton snow.  They received 18" in only a few hours and a total of 40" in about 17 hours.  Even the northeast/New England forum posters had never seen a synoptic snow band like that.

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Appreciate the thoughts there amigo. So far, temps seem to be keeping our NWS office from buying into this being much if any kind of snow-maker. Hopefully they're wrong.

I hadn't yet read the overnight AFD. They actually do now mention snow possible for Saturday night:

-- Better Chances for Precipitation over the Weekend --

The next good chance for precipitation will come over the weekend
from Saturday into Sunday. Saturday night into Sunday look to be
the two periods with the highest chances for precipitation. SREF
pops peak on Saturday night at 60-80 pct across the forecast area.
This makes sense with a shortwave moving through the region in
that time frame. Not out of the realm of possibilities to see some
light accumulations of snow Saturday night especially. The GFS is
suggesting the possibility of 1-3 inches of snow.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Took a look at the Binghamton hourly reports from yesterday. They received up to an astonishing .40" of qpf in the form of snow in ONE HOUR with temps at 16 degrees. You can imagine the 5.5" of snow in one hour is pretty believable based on that alone. Then they had 2 more hours of liquid equivalent at or above .35"!!

17	05:53	N 9	0.25	Heavy Snow Freezing Fog	VV003	15	12			88%	3	NA	29.88	1014.6	0.11
17	04:53	NA	0.25	Heavy Snow Freezing Fog	VV002	15	12			88%	NA	NA	29.88	1014.4	0.24
17	03:53	NE 6	0.25	Heavy Snow Freezing Fog	VV002	15	13			91%	6	NA	29.88	1014.6	0.18	0.89
17	02:53	NE 13 G 21	0.25	Heavy Snow Freezing Fog	VV002	15	12			88%	1	NA	29.87	1014.2	0.36
17	01:53	NA	0.25	Heavy Snow Freezing Fog	VV002	15	13			91%	NA	NA	29.87	1014.2	0.35
17	00:53	NA	0.25	Heavy Snow Freezing Fog	VV002	16	13	19	16	88%	NA	NA	29.85	1013.6	0.40		1.20
16	23:53	NA	0.25	Heavy Snow Freezing Fog	VV003	16	13			88%	NA	NA	29.88	1014.5	0.19
16	22:53	NE 14	0.25	Heavy Snow Freezing Fog	VV004	17	14			88%	3	NA	29.90	1015.2	0.16
16	21:53	E 14	0.50	Snow Freezing Fog	VV006	17	14			88%	3	NA	29.93	1016.1	0.11	0.45
16	20:53	E 10	0.25	Snow Freezing Fog	VV004	18	16			92%	6	NA	29.97	1017.5	0.21

[Clinton]

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Appreciate the thoughts there amigo. So far, temps seem to be keeping our NWS office from buying into this being much if any kind of snow-maker. Hopefully they're wrong.

Never good when the NAM is by its self 

[james1976]

jealous! They get more snow in 1 day then I prolly will all season. Lol

[Niko]

8 minutes ago, james1976 said:

jealous! They get more snow in 1 day then I prolly will all season. Lol

Only in the NE you will see this Ionians can only dream about this

Blizzard 96 and Blizzard 2010 were the doozy ones for me in NYC.

[bud2380]

After a brief flash south yesterday with the pre-Christmas system, models have trended back north.  

 

[Niko]

Attm, its cloudy w a little snow otg, just enough to give it a Christmas Look. Temp is at 30F.

 

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

After a brief flash south yesterday with the pre-Christmas system, models have trended back north.  

 

Tom mentioned yesterday that the tendency was there to be N. Stream dominant as they showed back in October, but in the end the S. Stream ended up the main show so this still bears watching for late-game trends. I take the fact that various models have flashed the south option as a favorable sign fwiw. I'd like to for once in my life, grasp for a straw and actually get something..

[jaster220]

I remember one of these back in the mid-80's in SEMI. Was a narrow band from Muskegon over to Flint that got 5" in two hours. And it was a heavy wet snow. It caked onto the fronts of cars on the freeway so badly it looked like people had turned off their headlamps. We occasionally do get some intense rates, it's just been rare lately.

Special Weather Statement

---

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
1144 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

MEZ012-018>028-033-NHZ004>006-008>010-013-171815-
Interior Cumberland Highlands-Kennebec-Central Interior
Cumberland-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Southern
Oxford-Androscoggin-Interior York-Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal
Waldo-Lincoln-Knox-Strafford-Northern
Carroll-Merrimack-Belknap-Southern Carroll-Interior
Rockingham-Southern Grafton-
1144 AM EST Thu Dec 17 2020

...An area of heavy snow will affect central Waldo...southern
Oxford...Androscoggin...southern Kennebec...Knox...northern York...
Lincoln...Cumberland...Sagadahoc...northwestern Strafford...
southeastern Grafton...Belknap...central Merrimack and southern
Carroll Counties...

At 1142 AM EST...An area of heavy snow extended from the Lakes
Region of New Hampshire and through the Lewiston area. This band was
nearly stationary.

Locations impacted include...
Portland, Concord, Lewiston, Rochester, South Portland, Biddeford,
Brunswick, Augusta, Laconia, Westbrook, Conway, Bath, Franklin,
Rockland, Belfast, Gardiner, Bridgton, Camden, Fryeburg and Mechanic
Falls.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 295 between mile markers 1 and 51.
 Interstate 89 between mile markers 0 and 4.
 Interstate 93 between mile markers 35 and 75.
 Interstate 95 between mile markers 34 and 121.

  * Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter mile in
  this area of heavy snow.

  * Sudden and brief snowfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour  are
possible in this area of heavy snow.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4401 6894 4406 6899 4398 6901 4369 6992
      4369 6996 4366 7002 4313 7159 4362 7187
      4467 6919 4405 6880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 224DEG 3KT 4398 7024
$$

Tubbs

[Niko]

I am receiving snowfall reports from text messages that Central Park, NY received near a foot (roughly between 10-11 inches). Not bad. They were calling for more, but sleet lower their chances of getting more than a foot.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just a look outside from the upstairs of our high school facing south. Christmas Break starts tomorrow at 1:30. 

[bud2380]

Euro looks good for our Twin Cities members

 

 

[bud2380]

Euro with temps in the single digits above and below zero at noon on Christmas Eve

 

[St Paul Storm]

^^  12z Euro with a Christmas miracle. Lock it in.  I've been a good boy all year, Santa!

[james1976]

Maybe ill head up to my girlfriend's place a day earlier. Lol

[james1976]

Looks like the Euro has come around to the cold GFS solution.

[Niko]

Light snow has returned w temps  at 29F.

[Hawkeye]

It appears likely, for many of us, our next snowfall will be in January.