Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, Link said: There we go again! Day ten and the Garbage Forecasting System. I'd bet my bank on the Euro instead of wish casting. The amount of 10 day'ers we should've had a LOT more cold then we have had. Actually the GFS has not been showing much cold at day 10. Not for awhile. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Actually the GFS has not been showing much cold at day 10. Not for awhile. That's when it will happen! Of course! Thanks for the heads up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 First rain of the winter tonight!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 We need to get some warning shots fired off soon, guys. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 46/28 today for a 37F avg A -3.7F departure. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 If I remember correctly both the extended GEFS and Weeklies show a period of zonal/onshore flow before blocking takes over I think it was around the 22nd-24th and big time cold pattern ensues near/after Christmas Eve. I think that's right. 6z GFS in 5 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 The 06z run is going to send us back to the Younger Dryas era, just you watch. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: If I remember correctly both the extended GEFS and Weeklies show a period of zonal/onshore flow before blocking takes over I think it was around the 22nd-24th and big time cold pattern ensures near/after Christmas Eve. I think that's right. 6z GFS in 5 minutes Let's get the tune-age going!! Got my NFL card to fill out and we are gonna score some points baby!! 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 This run is more like the 18z than the 00z so far. Though some key differences: GOA trough is further south, heights over the Bering Strait and extreme eastern Russia are much higher, western Canada is troughier, and AK is a complete reversal. Monitoring for the sake of having nothing better to do... #weenietime Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: This run is more like the 18z than the 00z so far. Though some key differences: GOA trough is further south, heights over the Bering Strait and extreme eastern Russia are much higher, western Canada is troughier, and AK is a complete reversal. Monitoring for the sake of having nothing better to do... #weenietime Yeah, definitely some key differences. Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Splitting away from all other solutions. Into garbage no-chance-to-verify time we go. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Splitting away from all other solutions. Into garbage no-chance-to-verify time we go. Yeah GFS run-to-run consistency Day 4-6 hasn't been the best. All blocking patterns and arctic blasts have to start somewhere, right? I mean literally it starts with one model run(EURO usually, but not always) or set of ensembles, and then a trend develops, timing moves forward, and yeah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah GFS run-to-run consistency Day 4-6 hasn't been the best. All blocking patterns and arctic blasts have to start somewhere, right? I mean literally it starts with one model run(EURO usually, but not always) or set of ensembles, and then a trend develops, timing moves forward, and yeah. I have a feeling we'll be swirling around in the toilet bowl until 4-6 days out. There is some real potential hidden here climatologically speaking given tropical forcings, and all models, even ensemble suites, are going to be be off. Just give it some time. The PV is strong right now, and models are reflective of that. As it starts weakening, things will clear up in the long range. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Decent AR this run though! 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, Meatyorologist said: I have a feeling we'll be swirling around in the toilet bowl until 4-6 days out. There is some real potential hidden here climatologically speaking given tropical forcings, and all models, even ensemble suites, are going to be be off. Just give it some time. The PV is strong right now, and models are reflective of that. As it starts weakening, things will clear up in the long range. Yeah that would line up with mid-December, so perhaps by the 12th the models will reflect the weakening PV, -PNA, and pattern flip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Requiem said: Decent AR this run though! Through Day 8 over 8" of rain central Oregon Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Yeah that would line up with mid-December, so perhaps by the 12th the models will reflect the weakening PV, -PNA, and pattern flip. That's what I'm assuming. Or we could not realize that potential. Just need to wait and see, but I'm leaning on the former. Probably 75-25. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 This run is at the very least active with a lot of rain and mountain snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: That's what I'm assuming. Or we could not realize that potential. Just need to wait and see, but I'm leaning on the former. Probably 75-25. I'm thinking it will be before Christmas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Heights are higher over the arctic on this run compared to the 00z. Plus they aren't eroding. On the 00z the lobe of lower heights over the Canadian Archipelago was ejecting northward and eroding away heights to the north. This run shows more of a stationary lobe. Extreme NA is frigid by +200hr. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 6z GFS 10 Day GIF 500mb Height Anomaly 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Getting a short break in the rain now, up to 0.18" today. 0.21" for December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Geez, that Archipelago lobe is off the charts. Could lower in heights even further. AK is going to get slammed by that in a few frames. Blast to the past stuff for them. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Alaska, Yukon, western Northwest Territories going into the deep freezer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Jeez. Alaska, Yukon big league cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Jeez. Alaska, Yukon big league cold. That European ridge isn't messing around, either, to say the least. Very amplified run. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Seeing the bitter cold finally on our side of the pole... Just need a block and we're going to turn into ice cubes. Expect some crazy model runs ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Seeing the bitter cold finally on our side of the pole... Just need a block and we're going to turn into ice cubes. Expect some crazy model runs ahead. Gonna be a fun ride. I'm out for the night. Sleep well. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 All frames are in... 06z was an Arctic spectacle, but not much more; an amplified mess without any significant blocking. However, for the past several runs, we've seen them end off on some variation of the same scenario: copious amounts of cold on the northern end of this side of the pole, with a Pacific that seems poised to form some kind of block. A "loaded gun", if you want. Will future runs realize this potential, or will this "inevitable" cold snap be delayed further and further out endlessly? We will find out within the next couple weeks. Until then, onto the GEFS, and on to the 12z. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 That is a hugely impressive cold signature for AK into the Yukon and Northern BC. Zonal flow for the lowlands. Logic dictates that *any* sort of blocking pattern would be gold here. Just need to get it... 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 A bit late, but finally some ensemble support now. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 A timelapse of the clouds moving in from the south yesterday, 3pm-4:30 PM. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 37 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: A bit late, but finally some ensemble support now. Didn't like his next tweet though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 winter is coming! you should start to see some significant improvements on tonight’s 00z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 Light precipitation now falling and 45 degrees. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 0.74" of rain overnight. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 6, 2020 Report Share Posted December 6, 2020 4 years ago this morning on 12/6/2016... 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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