TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 12Z EPS... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim is once again annoyingly spot on. Really no signs of anything worthwhile through January 10th and anything beyond that is largely a crapshoot. Something great could happen in the second half of January, but there is no reason to think of that as anything more than potential. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Sure, but those that think something is coming are saying mid January. Wouldn't expect models to pick up on that yet. I don't think models picked up on anything 3 weeks before December 2008 or February 2019. I still think a major pattern shift is likely around mid month. Could start with ridging popping over us but retrograde fairly quickly. We’ll be going on about six weeks since any real meridional action at that point so it fits pretty well. 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Tim is once again annoyingly spot on. I was just echoing your sentiments from earlier... which were also annoyingly spot on. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So people look at the clown range of the GFS and see arctic cold and snow, and tell us it is the clown range and we should not believe it. Then they look at the clown range and see progressive, stormy and seasonal weather, and tell us that it IS to be believed, and will no doubt be correct not only for 16 days, but actually for 34 days. The difference at the moment is that the signal for a very active Pacific is pretty overwhelming. It will eventually slow down but it will take time, as is consistent with climo. Any of the fleeting signals (at best) for AK blocking earlier this month weren’t nearly in the same ballpark. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Oh Fred! You’re the silliest!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Windy, sunny and up to 45. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, iFred said: I've got bulbs starting to sprout and my grass seems to be coming out of dormancy. Looking at Tim's well timed maps, looks like I can start yard prep in mid January. I agree with Matt... a shake up is probably likely after mid-month. I never said otherwise. We are just not seeing it yet in the models. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Lol you truly act as if it never ever gets cold or snows. It has plenty of times at your location in Eugene the last 10 years...with a big snowstorm not too long ago. Well there certainly doesn't seem to be anything favorable in the models. When they show something favorable, the rug often gets pulled, when they show something unfavorable 15-days out, it often verifies especially in Jan. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, iFred said: Hmm. In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go. I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done. Wasn’t last winter a dud? Awfully soon to be “due” for another one. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, iFred said: I think that the EPS hinted as something when it was in range. The forecast into 2008 could be expected given the tech. Sure tech has improved but the eps was showing pacific ridging around the new year not long ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 And actually I like this upcoming pattern, so I am not complaining. Would be good to see arctic air, but this pattern will most likely give my location lots of snow. I think people heard some hype about the 3rd week of December, which didn't pan out, and are extrapolating that disappointment for the rest of the winter. Lots of potential, but obviously nothing gaurenteed. I have always been amused by people who say we are "overdue" so it will happen, or that we can't have a good February because we have had too many lately. Don't think that is how things work. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Wasn’t last winter a dud? Awfully soon to be “due” for another one. Last winter is a tough one for the dewness scale. We came REALLY REALLY close to getting REALLY REALLY cold. Plus it snowed here a little in the middle of March. On the broader scale, we down here are still paying for December 2013 through January 2017. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Living in a place that gets a White Christmas once every 40 years, and not being able to move, is depressing, sorry. Esp when places to the north get them regularly now. 2-25-19 was awesome but also pretty wet and sloppy. When was the last time we had a Dec-Jan event here that dropped more than 8"? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Wasn’t last winter a dud? Awfully soon to be “due” for another one. Most winters are duds here. We get lucky once in a while but our access to Arctic air is seemingly becoming more and more scarce. No 1990 event in 30 years ain't no joke. It's a trend. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 At least it looks stormy :) 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, iFred said: Hmm. In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go. I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done. In the event of an all out dud, which is certainly still on the table, next winter should be primed quite nicely. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Phil said: Wasn’t last winter a dud? Awfully soon to be “due” for another one. Mid January 2020 was pretty good from Seattle North. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 So are we cancelling winter or is Mr Snow and Mr Cold going to just be social distancing from the PNW a bit longer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Most winters are duds here. We get lucky once in a while but our access to Arctic air is seemingly becoming more and more scarce. No 1990 event in 30 years ain't no joke. It's a trend. People have to remember that was arguably the greatest December Arctic event for the West overall in the past 75+ years. A very anomalous air mass, by any standards. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Starting some spring yard projects today! 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, iFred said: Hmm. In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go. I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done. I haven't really seen evidence that lower Arctic ice means lower chances of the PNW, or even lower 48, getting cold. 2016 had even less Arctic ice going into December than this year... 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: People have to remember that was arguably the greatest December Arctic event for the West overall in the past 75+ years. A very anomalous air mass, by any standards. It has to be top 5 for December 1900-present. Arguably 3rd best. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Thanks to all of the negativity I had to shove baby back in the corner. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Thanks to all of the negativity I had to shove baby back in the corner. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, iFred said: Hmm. In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go. I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done. Deal me in for another epic February, would really like to go through another February 2018. Several snows working their way up to an 8" total the 21st. Started with a dusting the 14th, 4-5" paste the night of the 18th then it snowed again the evening of the 20th and brought us up to 8". This was the morning of the 21st. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, iFred said: I take it you're not in a position to move? No, my current family rescued me from a disastrous situation. I am forever, happily indebted to them. 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Beautiful day... 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: Thanks to all of the negativity I had to shove baby back in the corner. Maybe take the plow off. That should shake the models up a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, dolt said: Maybe take the plow off. That should shake the models up a bit. And put it in a big safe. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 38 minutes ago, iFred said: Hmm. In all seriousness, not really picking on Tim this time. I get that people see a shake up mid month, based on a ticking clock and a pending SSW, but I don't see it. We were due for an outright dud and with the poor ice setup leading into the season, the warm Pacific, and just the general trend of our climate, I just don't see anything happening this month. Maybe something in Feb ala 2011, but at that point its just a couple days of cold weather, one day near freezing, and on to spring we go. I also know that this is partially a weenie cop out, but there is a touch of bias as I really want to rescue my lawn and get some gardening done. The complete lack of cold on this side of the globe doesn't feel like a standalone pattern-oriented fluke. It obviously fits well within the overall trend of the last half decade. We can't just expect to torch globally for 18 months straight and then magically nosedive once December comes around. Everything is tied together and our major winter cold airmasses don't happen in a vacuum. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Still no signs on ensembles for any Gulf of Alaska ridging. Not yet. We patiently and increasingly impatiently wait. And wait. And wait. Onto 00z runs tonight! 00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes 00z ECMWF in 8 hours 37 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I haven't really seen evidence that lower Arctic ice means lower chances of the PNW, or even lower 48, getting cold. 2016 had even less Arctic ice going into December than this year... 2016-17 was also a gangbusters upper level setup for us that comes around once every 10-20 years. Perfecly placed 500mb anomalies while the rest of the continent largely torched. Can't expect that every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 Someone hand a bottle to the uncle. Perhaps to some of us as well. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 I didn't even look at a single frame of the 12z Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 The 18z will drop the arctic hammer. That 920 something low in the west pacific is just screwing with the models for now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: I didn't even look at a single frame of the 12z Euro. Merry Christmas! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 47 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Living in a place that gets a White Christmas once every 40 years, and not being able to move, is depressing, sorry. Esp when places to the north get them regularly now. 2-25-19 was awesome but also pretty wet and sloppy. When was the last time we had a Dec-Jan event here that dropped more than 8"? White Christmas’s are over rated anyway 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: The 18z will drop the arctic hammer. That 920 something low in the west pacific is just screwing with the models for now. Who knows. On the EURO the Day 3 low which seems to be trending stronger(927mb on 12z) and a notch further west, IF it were to develop a bit sooner over the Western Bering that would hug it along Kamchatka and pump up a huge Gulf of Alaska ridge. I don't know if we can rule that out entirely. #graspingatalotofstraws Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2020 Report Share Posted December 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Merry Christmas! I owe you an unbelievable debt of gratitude for this good sir. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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