wxmet Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 There’s always next winter. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Phil is like the pied piper of the weather forum. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Phil is like the pied piper of the weather forum. We are weather rats? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Phil is like the pied piper of the weather forum. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Meanwhile Texas and Mexico get a foot of snow in the next 24 hours . . . 1 2 2 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, Phil said: Not sure if anyone linked this but for those seeking Dr. Ventrice’s video here it is. For those seeking instant gratification, start watching at ~ 34 minutes in. I really do like his analysis here including the EOFs to differentiate wave structures and their long term evolution. FWIW his projection for PNW ~ 40mins in fits very well w/ the timeline we’ve all discussed. Watched the entire video a bit ago...Fantastic stuff! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, Acer said: We are weather rats? Or the children. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Well we could all head to Leavenworth to get our snow fix...5yrs ago today we did just that! 8 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Man Andrew is in a very dark place today. I’m surprised considering the next 10 days are essentially his favorite weather pattern. 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 00z GEFS Day 10-16 GIF 500mb Height Anomaly, 200mb Jet. Positive anomalies popping up across the Pacific with the NPAC, WPAC jet retracting and dying. It looks like the models are starting to pick up on the major NPAC pattern change. Here we go!!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Things are going to get worse before they get better. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Looks like a breezy EURO run at the very least! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 baby steps....baby steps... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 00z Euro also more amped with the WAFz/SSW and Eurasian Arctic ridging. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 39 minutes ago, Phil said: Not sure if anyone linked this but for those seeking Dr. Ventrice’s video here it is. For those seeking instant gratification, start watching at ~ 34 minutes in. I really do like his analysis here including the EOFs to differentiate wave structures and their long term evolution. FWIW his projection for PNW ~ 40mins in fits very well w/ the timeline we’ve all discussed. Thanks for posting. I haven't watched it all yet. I'm at around 42 minutes into it. Its an awesome video and very interesting. He provides evidence that Siberian SSW favour the PNW much more so then North Atlantic ones. I feel even more confident in my prediction for a cold and snowy pattern in the PNW mid or late January. Seems highly unlikely things don't work out based on the SSW combined with a -ENSO/+QBO state. Not to mention, the atmosphere is already behaving as it should leading up to a Siberian SSW with the active yet and Alaskan trough. Exciting times ahead for PNW winter lovers. 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GEFS Day 10-16 GIF 500mb Height Anomaly, 200mb Jet. Positive anomalies popping up across the Pacific with the NPAC, WPAC jet retracting and dying. It looks like the models are starting to pick up on the major NPAC pattern change. Here we go!!!! @Phil what are your thoughts based on Day 10-16 progression? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 And, next again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: @Phil what are your thoughts based on Day 10-16 progression? Signal for height rises over the NPAC is legit. Jet retracts mid-Jan and EPO flips. Models should trend higher with heights over AK/NE-Pacific with time, though I’m sure there’ll be some waffling around as usual. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Signal for height rises over the NPAC is legit. Jet retracts mid-Jan and EPO flips. Models should trend higher with heights over AK/NE-Pacific with time, though I’m sure there’ll be some waffling around as usual. Yup. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 2 hours ago, AbbyJr said: The temperature anomolies are not very cold for the PNW though. I assume the 500mb pattern is good but the arctic air has not come down south yet? (Based on the time of the run) If the 500mb stuff is there the cold will come. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 25 minutes ago, Phil said: Signal for height rises over the NPAC is legit. Jet retracts mid-Jan and EPO flips. Models should trend higher with heights over AK/NE-Pacific with time, though I’m sure there’ll be some waffling around as usual. I was extremely pleased with the GFS operational and GEFS tonight. Very clear signal for good things to come. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: And, next again. The things we want to see happen to lead to a good pattern for us happen on tonight's runs. Good enough for now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 56 minutes ago, Phil said: 00z Euro also more amped with the WAFz/SSW and Eurasian Arctic ridging. I've been seeing the WAFz talked about some lately. I must admit I'm not sure what that is. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I've been seeing the WAFz talked about some lately. I must admit I'm not sure what that is. Upward (z-component) of wave activity flux(es). IE: Fluxes into the stratosphere, which can disrupt the vortex. FYI: Zonal component is denoted by “u” and meridional by “v”. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Upward (z-component) of wave activity flux(es). IE: Fluxes into the stratosphere, which can disrupt the vortex. FYI: Zonal component is denoted by “u” and meridional by “v”. I knew about the U, but not the others. Thanks! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The things we want to see happen to lead to a good pattern for us happen on tonight's runs. Good enough for now. Nothing will be good enough until a 00z run shows a substantial amount of snow for my backyard starting before the run ends. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 The EPS has the same idea as the GFS and GEFS except it's just a little bit slower. Brief ridge sets up over us as above normal heights bridge between the mid and high latitudes and then the Pacific Jet retracts quickly. This all dovetails with what the ECMWF weeklies showed a couple of days ago and what the extended GFS ensemble has been showing. Intriguingly the 0z EPS speeds up the process as compared to the 12z. Looks promising. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 All of this business of people giving up on winter in late December is just absurd, but to each his own I guess. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 The SSW is progressing nicely BTW. Pretty good considering the naysayers who kept saying it was never getting any closer! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: All of this business of people giving up on winter in late December is just absurd, but to each his own I guess. Their Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 Nothing exciting in the believable range. Hinging hopes on an SSW is going to leave one disappointed. Accept it and move onto 21-22. If we go beyond Jan 14 or so it will be the longest EUG has ever gone without a sub-freezing high, the climate here will continue to get more boring for the rest of our lives. It is what it is. Most vivid weather memories are the Labor Day fires and our coldest temp so far was in late October. What a disaster. 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 06z GFS Init. Off we go. Let's get some eye candy tonight! Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 06z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 31, 2020 Report Share Posted December 31, 2020 06z GFS Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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