BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Timmy said: Gem is not too pretty. Not too far from being good though. Big improvement over the previous run though. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Historic Winter on the way 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Who needs a stratosphere anyways? 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 With that 500mb pattern we would be looking at a prolonged cold spell north of Albany 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 GEFS rolling out. Euro will soon, too. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: What’s the northern map look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Sweet. Nice AR in the long range. 1 1 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Historic Winter on the way Feels like it could be one of those years where winter is mid-January through mid-March. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The difference between the 18z and 00z OP runs are very similar to the ensemble shifts, except maybe not quite as much and with less of a time delay. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Strongest and most persistent trade burst in a decade. Possibly longer. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I had trouble sleeping exactly one year ago. 8 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: New GFS has a dreamy block. Maybe it’s the new long term arctic high and will sit there the rest of winter:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Sweet. Nice AR in the long range. Some hawt low elevation snowmelt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, Jesse said: I’m still on team he isn’t Josh. I'm really not sure how well versed Josh is on recent Jackson County snow history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Strongest and most persistent trade burst in a decade. Possibly longer. Does that help NPAC blocking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: Strongest and most persistent trade burst in a decade. Possibly longer. The ENSO regions haven't changed much at all. Has this instead prevented a big warm-up? Are there implications for a La Nina for next winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Some pretty legit cold on tonight's GFS. I'm really liking the trend. The one problem is the pattern is so complex we won't know anything nearly for sure about snow for a while yet. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I'm really not sure how well versed Josh is on recent Jackson County snow history. My guess would be not. That rundown of the last few events seemed way too coherent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 That AR in clown range is pretty persistent. Seems like something that could happen in this scenario. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Some pretty legit cold on tonight's GFS. I'm really liking the trend. The one problem is the pattern is so complex we won't know anything nearly for sure about snow for a while yet. Probably going to be some run to run volatility in the wise words of Dewey. We went from quite a few meh/decent runs...to a really snowy one to a really cold one. 06z and 12z will probably be totally different too. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The ENSO regions haven't changed much at all. Has this instead prevented a big warm-up? Are there implications for a La Nina for next winter? Not sure if it was Judah or where I heard it from, but I read that la nina could last into next winter. Maybe from the second SSW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 As the Caboose of this snow train I am back onboard. At least we get one multiday snow storm on this run. Whats interesting is Jesse made a comment about SF snow, and the last time that happened was in 1976 which was a similar drought to what we are experiencing now. The end of the this GFS run shows us going right back to record warmth so I am going to ignore that for the time being. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: New GFS has a dreamy block. Talk about insane! Can't wait to se if the new GFS is better than the current one. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Talk about insane! Can't wait to se if the new GFS is better than the current one. Can’t be worse! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Probably going to be some run to run volatility in the wise words of Dewey. We went from quite a few meh/decent runs...to a really snowy one to a really cold one. 06z and 12z will probably be totally different too. The only input I can contribute here is the fact late January cold waves are notorious snow producers. Been so long since we've had one though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The ENSO regions haven't changed much at all. Has this instead prevented a big warm-up? Are there implications for a La Nina for next winter? Multiyear Niña seems likely to me right now. Been favoring the early 2020s for awhile. The fact this is centered over the IPWP suppresses the thermocline and prevents OKW inception so long as there’s no low/medium pass transition to westerlies there. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That AR in clown range is pretty persistent. Seems like something that could happen in this scenario. W could see an AR after the cold and then get cold again. The ECMWF like the idea of an MJO in octant 7 early next month. That is the single most likely region for us to get cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The only input I can contribute here is the fact late January cold waves are notorious snow producers. Been so long since we've had one though. Haven’t had a sub freezing high temp in January since 2007. So 14 years. Haven’t had a real legit snow event since 2012...so 9 years on that. We’re due for some good sh*t. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 For days 8-10, the GEFS has definitely trended towards less amplification of the offshore block over the last few runs. Still pretty chilly, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: W could see an AR after the cold and then get cold again. The ECMWF like the idea of an NJO in octant 7 early next month. That is the single most likely region for us to get cold. I can see that happening. It's not hard to see the pattern shown late on the GFS evolving favorably for cold. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The operational drops below -12 on the 850s on the 25th. Really solid cold! The ensemble mean drops below -7 once again. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: I thought fred unbanned him...if so then why would he need to make an alt account? Idk seemed like he/she wasn’t josh. It could be Pat from Saturday Night Live!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Haven’t had a sub freezing high temp in January since 2007. So 14 years. Haven’t had a real legit snow event since 2012...so 9 years on that. We’re due for some good sh*t. Crazy!! One year ago today I had a high of 27. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Crazy!! One year ago today I had a high of 27. I’d like to live up north too...Bellingham or anacortes would be places I’d like to live. Orcas island maybe too but there’s not a big job market there! 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The parallel model has really been spitting out some impressive runs. Epic potential if it's correct. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I’d like to live up north too...Bellingham or anacortes would be places I’d like to live. Orcas island maybe too but there’s not a big job market there! Interestingly we are very due for some winters where southern areas outdo the north. It does happen sometimes. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skier B Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The parallel model has really been spitting out some impressive runs. Epic potential if it's correct. Has the Parallel been any more accurate in the long range? It does look nice at the end! 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The parallel model has really been spitting out some impressive runs. Epic potential if it's correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Interestingly we are very due for some winters where southern areas outdo the north. It does happen sometimes. I’d just like to live closer to the San Juan’s...I just like the geography and foothills meeting the salish sea and the islands...along with the weather being more active. More windstorms and usually more snow up that way and not as hot as down this way in the summer...just a more interesting place IMO. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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