SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: 550’ right here! Woo Hoo!!! Randy, put the over/under for snow at your house through the end of the month at 4.5". 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Through mid January, PDX is pretty much neck and neck with 1950-51 for the warmest first half of a winter on record. Of course the pattern flipped abruptly in mid January 1951, first with about 10 days of cold onshore flow and sea level snow at times, then with an arctic airmass at the end of the month. Followed by a legendary March! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Through mid January, PDX is pretty much neck and neck with 1950-51 for the warmest first half of a winter on record. Of course the pattern flipped abruptly in mid January 1951, first with about 10 days of cold onshore flow and sea level snow at times, then with an arctic airmass at the end of the month. Followed by a legendary March! And then followed by one of the nicest spring and summer seasons in history in this area! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Through mid January, PDX is pretty much neck and neck with 1950-51 for the warmest first half of a winter on record. Of course the pattern flipped abruptly in mid January 1951, first with about 10 days of cold onshore flow and sea level snow at times, then with an arctic airmass at the end of the month. Followed by a legendary March! Interesting. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: And then followed by one of the nicest spring and summer seasons in history in this area! Which was then followed by a really fantabulous Nino winter in 1951-52, complete with a wet October!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Randy, put the over/under for snow at your house through the end of the month at 4.5". 1 foot by February 1st. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Low of just 41 this morning. Have struggled to get below 40 here at night so far this month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 37 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Not seeing any improvements on ensembles with 850s. I think we just may have to settle on 1000' snow levels perhaps lower at times, and a chance of slushy accumulations to sea level at night with any precip. Those type of set ups can still be fun as long as you get precipitation at the right time. February 2018 was a pretty good example. First couple days of that set up could only manage slushy trace-1/2” accumulations as the precip came only during the daytime. Finally scored on the 21st with 2” of snow in the overnight hours. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Can someone please take over if you're available to do so. I have to step out going furniture shopping. Be back later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think you are spot on. Really no chance of arctic air through the end of the month. It's going to be chilly, but it is going to be onshore flow for the most part. Places below 1000' could score if gradients go flat with moisture. Honestly these trends are a lot more encouraging than previous runs a couple days ago showing the trough offshore pumping in mild SW flow. Finally a real Andrew post from you. I like it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Can someone please take over if you're available to do so. I have to step out going furniture shopping. Be back later. You should get bunk beds! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: A little less sharp with the trough at D7 vs. the 00z. Better ridging over AK though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I haven't had an inch of snow in over 689 days. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Euro’s going a little wonky... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12Z ECMWF is less snowy than the 00Z run through day 9... 12Z run on top and 00Z run on the bottom. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12Z ECMWF is also colder than the 00Z run at the end. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah far more encouraging than a couple of days ago. Bellingham, Ferndale, Lynden, to Winthrop, Twisp, Omak, Spokane could see modified arctic air at times. Works for me! 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Well that ended a bit colder. #warmerrunsahead #pineapples Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Days 9-10... I can’t see any of the images on this page where you say “days 3-5” on my phone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Images not showing on my iPad or is this all snow! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 44* and some nice northerly winds of 15 mph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, iFred said: Can you see it on his post now? I can't. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Gorgeous day. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I can’t see any of the images on this page where you say “days 3-5” on my phone. I clicked on it, a popup appeared, then I clicked on the left arrow, and that restated the gif and it worked then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Gorgeous day. From Tahoe to BC we live in a playground of beauty just a step outside our doors! Some low level clouds have moved in here at the moment. It was clear just a bit ago 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I clicked on it, a popup appeared, then I clicked on the left arrow, and that restated the gif and it worked then. That worked....thanksssss 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Gorgeous day. Is that Gold Falls? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Probably the last time I see a snowless Skykomish until April. 4 3 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Bring on the major TPV! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Is that Gold Falls? South Falls at Silver Falls state park east of Salem. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Bring on the major TPV! JSYK... that’s the stratospheric vortex he’s referring to. 10mb versus 500mb. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 I thought phase 6 was a warm phase? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 12Z EPS... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... Not a lot of surprises there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Just now, Acer said: Not a lot of surprises there. My prediction is an improving trend over the coming days! Going to see that ghostly purple coming down over Washington State! 3 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, Deweydog said: JSYK... that’s the stratospheric vortex he’s referring to. 10mb versus 500mb. The last week or so is the most I've seen TPV get thrown around since late last March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 14 hours ago, Phil said: We are causing climate change. Question is how much? We don’t have the answer to that. With each new study that increases the degree of Holocene climate variability, the more likely it is climate sensitivity is state dependent. We’re probably responsible for 30-50% of the post WW-II warming, is my guesstimate. That and how much if any are we controlling is another question up for debate.Of course if you asks Robert Filex his opinion on it he would argure regardless what we do we can never control these climate cycles.I don't think he disagrees so much that we have some effect.but that the idea we control it is where he disagrees.Thing I have wondered is what made Filex take interest in the Ice age cycles to begin with and to write a entire book about it .one thing I gotta give to him is he has done exackly where his mouth speaks on he moved to Texas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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