james1976 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 DMX graph Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec. If it wasn't for the massive west-based block, we wouldn't be counting our dividends. They also mentioned the possibility for Thundersnow. Quote The overarching key feature to this forecast is the long-lived blocking ridge displaced well southwest of Greenland, near Hudson Bay in advance of our system. The system will be forced underneath the block (surface low track near STL and eastward), importantly keeping the 850 mb low center south of area and the 700 mb low to ease east- southeast as well. Quote Snowfall rates of 1-2" or more per hour appear quite possible through Saturday evening, along with easterly winds gusting up to 30-35 mph, strongest near the lake in Illinois. With SLR generally less than 10:1 during the heaviest snow, this will be a heavy/dense snow that will likely serve to increase the road impacts and combined with the wind, could be looking at 1/4 to 1/2 mile or less visibility for several hours in a row. Quote On the mesoscale, undoubtedly in this type of setup can expect lower and mid-level frontogenesis to contribute to embedded intense banding signatures in the warm advection portion of the system. Finally, forecast sounding depiction of very steep lapse rates (potentially 8-9C/km) above 500 mb is another ingredient for heavy to intense precip rates (and maybe even thundersnow). 6 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edhalen Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, Tom said: I haven't read an AFD from LOT like this in years...looks like a "wall of snow" is heading our way accompanied by gusty winds...similar to what happened with the storm back in late Dec. If it wasn't for the massive west-based block, we wouldn't be counting our dividends. They also mentioned the possibility for Thundersnow. I read that this morning and was smiling the whole time. Thundersnow!!! Bring it on!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Too bad this storm just dies as it runs into Michigan. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm not even going to bother posting the GFS since it is so much warmer. Here was DVNs take on the GFS today.. "perplexed" The main problem that continues to plague this system is just how far north the warm layer ultimately gets. GFS deterministic and ensembles continues their streak of being the farthest north (which I`m a little perplexed by given northward flow in the low levels), 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS v 16 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, bud2380 said: GFS v 16 Nice 8" bullseye right over me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 The GFSv16 has been consistently solid for central to east-central IA. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z GDPS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Too bad this storm just dies as it runs into Michigan. been the theme all winter. didn't even need to wishcast lol i knew where this was headed from the jump smh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 UK very similar to the 00z run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: 12z UK is pretty similar to the 00z. Wow Jinx. LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: UK very similar to the 00z run. That 5.9" in Cedar Rapids, at 10:1, would probably be 4.x" of wet stuff. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 This storm will really explode off the Atlantic Ocean..... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 hours ago, East Dubzz said: Still is a solid spot here, but also cutting it a little closer than I’d like to see. I don’t see a curveball coming tomorrow, I think we are still good to go on the 3-7” Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 hours ago, whatitdo said: West Michigan this winter watching everyone else get winter storm watches/warnings Wild stuff.. At least we have a "chance" for a last-minute bone chucked our way. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 15z RAP shifted further NE with the snow and brought warmer air further north as well. not as bad as the NAMs and HRRR, but a shift. Also huge differences between 10:1 and Kuchera. 2" difference in CR 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 hours ago, Tom said: 00z Euro...the consistency has been rock steady for N IL over the past few days. The only difference I see as we get close is the model is a tad colder at the onset when the initial front end thump of snow happens. It's suggesting nearly 9" for ORD in 6 hours, thus, the increase in totals for this run and better Lehs/LES on the backside. @indianajohn @Hoosierthis looks like it is coming together for you guys in IN... 00z UKIE... 00z EPS...steady as she goes... @Tom I hope we cash in finally!!! what time frame we looking at? My wife and here friends will be coming home from a girls weekend in New Buffalo Michigan I would like to give them a heads up when to leave on Sunday morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 The Euro is not budging from its colder column. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro appears to be about the same as well so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Totals increased in CR this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'd be fine with 6" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, indianajohn said: @Tom I hope we cash in finally!!! what time frame we looking at? My wife and here friends will be coming home from a girls weekend in New Buffalo Michigan I would like to give them a heads up when to leave on Sunday morning They should leave Sat afternoon to beat the snow fall. They may get snowed in if they leave on Sunday. Roads will be terrible. Snow should be falling by 5:00-6:00pm in Chicago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's a battle between the CAMs and globals. The Euro won't budge from its cold solution, but the CAMs just keep getting warmer. I would be quite happy with 6". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 In this instance, I'm gonna side with the CAMs, every time. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think Chicago is in for more than a foot, or near a foot, give or take......Congrats Chicagoan's. Looks almost like a lock w this storm. 3 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, hlcater said: In this instance, I'm gonna side with the CAMs, every time. Yeah, I'm inclined to go with the warmer CAMs as well. If it was just the NAM, no, but it's all of them. Let's hope they're wrong. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Yeah, I'm inclined to go with the warmer CAMs as well. If it was just the NAM, no, but it's all of them. Let's hope they're wrong. One thing that could be working against them is precipitation intensity. Though I dont know how CAMs would overlook something like that. You'd just have to hope that they're underdoing evaporative cooling and other dynamic processes. If this comes in hot and convective, my guess is things are more likely to change to snow earlier than later. I'm gonna hold at my 3" call for IC. I'd also like to add that one more wild card is how much snow exists in the deformation zone on the back side? Some models are more aggressive than others here. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 SMI peeps, hang in there. As for now, it looks like some of us get in on some light snows and some get nothing. Hoping for a push northward "last second." So, as for now, in mby, I might be looking at LES from Port Huron starting Monday and lasting into late Monday, if not into parts of Tuesday, which could add a couple of more inches. This trough should back up enough to give me some extended snowfall. We will see how that goes. In any event, for now, I am looking at a 3-6"+ range, counting Late Saturday nite -Late Monday, or even into Tuesday w that LES kicking in (again, not sure how that will go yet). This forecast is only for the far eastern areas of MI. Fingers crossed! Note: Today arrives that Pacific energy coming onshore, if not already, so hopefully, models have a better grip on this Winterstorm. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 @indianajohn, RPM model paints 11-12” for you and 9” for ORD. Your looking good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: @indianajohn, RPM model paints 11-12” for you and 9” for ORD. Your looking good! Fingers Crossed........ been a Minute since we seen a 10"+ snowstorm... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 still time for the CAMs to turn colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z Euro came in a touch juicier... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 I could live with the Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 hours ago, whatitdo said: West Michigan this winter watching everyone else get winter storm watches/warnings DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday) Issued at 236 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 - Impactful snow event for parts of the area Sat night - Sun Many of the latest runs continue to support several inches of snow for the southern couple of rows of our CWA...generally south of Interstate 96 with the next storm system. This is the region that is expected to see the deepest moisture and most favorable dynamics with this storm system. However the GFS continues to show accumulating impactful snow further north with this storm. Meanwhile the Canadian GPDS suggests we could make a run a warning snows down south...but this model is an outlier at this time. Based on all this...it appears we are heading toward an advisory event for southern and perhaps central parts of the CWA...so no watch at this time. We will need to continue to monitor the storm closely as tracks out of CA and into the Central Plains. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Thundersnow is really looking like a possibility across the I-80/88 corridor or very close to where the RN/SN line moves in. I can't wait to see what the radar will look like tomorrow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 @Tom I can tell you what my radar will look like, RAIN!!! AGAIN!!! We had a pretty good week, not big totals, but, it snowed two days. Hopefully Feb. starts good later next week for KC and everyone. Have fun with the snow tomorrow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 6"-9" IN A 6 hour period with winds howling will want Cantore to make a trip out this way. Throw in some Thundersnow and we are golden. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z EPS came in with a bit more juice...trends are looking positive for a lot of N IL/N IN...E IA should do fine as well...I think this storm will over achieve in the snow dept as the dynamics usually win out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 28 minutes ago, jaster220 said: DISCUSSION...(Today through next Thursday) Issued at 236 AM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 - Impactful snow event for parts of the area Sat night - Sun Many of the latest runs continue to support several inches of snow for the southern couple of rows of our CWA...generally south of Interstate 96 with the next storm system. This is the region that is expected to see the deepest moisture and most favorable dynamics with this storm system. However the GFS continues to show accumulating impactful snow further north with this storm. Meanwhile the Canadian GPDS suggests we could make a run a warning snows down south...but this model is an outlier at this time. Based on all this...it appears we are heading toward an advisory event for southern and perhaps central parts of the CWA...so no watch at this time. We will need to continue to monitor the storm closely as tracks out of CA and into the Central Plains. This would be our biggest snowfall of the year. GRR NWS ftw! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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