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February 2021 Observations and Discussion


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The op GFS has now changed dramatically, sweeping the northern stream through and leaving the southern wave behind to eventually pass much farther southeast.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just a reminder of The Weather Channels FEB temp forecast

Once I saw the end was near, it was time for me to make my trip out to AZ.  I wasn’t lying when I saw a potential pattern that could conceivably become historic and it did.  I was open about it and ad

Pics taken in & near Argusville and Gardner, ND. Temps were in the -17*F area the entire time. Actually burned my hand touching my metal tripod a couple times.

Posted Images

Just now, Clinton said:

0z GFS and ICON advertising a major storm in Missouri on the 5th. Fingers crossed

The ✨iconic✨ICON

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CMC is a day later and hammers many of us with a blizzard.

Its coming south towards your area Clinton.....👍

Btw: I trust CMC 10X more than GFS.

"GFS" elect hopefully is a good one, but we will see how it does.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

The Canadian shows 1-2 feet of snow over the next 10 days for basically the entire sub forum. 

Hahahahahaha this doesn't include me

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I couldn't help but see the similarities to Feb 3rd-11th 2018 and what the models are showing during this same period.  Only looking at this period and not afterwards bc we all know what happened when the epic torch killed our beautiful snow pack in a span of 2-3 days.

Quote

 

CFSv2...

wk1.wk2_latest.NAprec.png

 

 

wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.png

 

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_6.png

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

 

Isn't it finally nice to see the GEFS trend colder instead of warmer???  The tides have turned my friends.  Giddy up for some true winter weather.

1.gif

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The GFS ensembles just continue to pound on Iowa.  One of the stronger storms of this years pattern is due in around Valentines Day.  Already some ensemble agreement on that storm and Iowa could be the target again.  Along ways to go and we have some nice storms between now and then but I don't see the snow stopping for my friends to the north.

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6 minutes ago, Tony said:

I guess you do since you've been posting there 

Thats right..I'll post where I wish. Free country!

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

Oh my God

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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19 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Ha!snku_acc.us_c.png

Hays, KS posters are in shambles.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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This will be a tad uncomfortable after being spoiled by above average temps in the 20s with nearly zero wind this entire Winter

Quote
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 14. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 6. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -7. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 1. Northwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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30 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

This will be a tad uncomfortable after being spoiled by above average temps in the 20s with nearly zero wind this entire Winter

 

From FGF:

Quote

Behind this system is a strong signal for an arctic air intrusion to
overcome the region by next weekend. The reinforcing cold air
continues the chance for gusty winds which will only add to
potential impacts from wind chills/blowing snow potential. Details
in just how low temps will reach remain unclear, although there is
presently a signal for widespread subzero temps for an elongated
period of time (greater than 48 hours) for locations within the
CWA.

Sustained stretches of below zero temps are no stranger to here, but with the way this winter has been, it will be a shock to the system.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The Feb6-7th storm (next weekend potentially), has some brutal, arctic air following it, even during the event, it stays frigid, but especially afterwards. The big question here is, where does a storm form and where does it go. Right now it looks soso for my area, but hopefully that changes. Check out the 12z Euro.......

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Already seeing 14 as highs and lows near 0 on forecasts for next weekend. Euro even colder. I know there will be at least some snow leftover but really want something to freshen it up

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

The Feb6-7th storm (next weekend potentially), has some brutal, arctic air following it, even during the event, it stays frigid, but especially afterwards. The big question here is, where does a storm form and where does it go. Right now it looks soso for my area, but hopefully that changes. Check out the 12z Euro.......

v16 spits out a PV Bliz run tonight..

 

20200201 0z GFSv16 162hr Snowfall Totals.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

v16 spits out a PV Bliz run tonight..

 

20200201 0z GFSv16 162hr Snowfall Totals.PNG

The set up is there for a wave to ride the arctic front and unleash the Polar Vortex post storm.  This pattern is very reminiscent to what happened 2 years ago in late January.  Come to think of it, the PV visits in Jan '14 also brought snows with them before the cold came.  Taking a look at the EPS ensemble members and they have many members showing that "look" for some interesting shenanigans across the region.

00z EPS...

2.png

3.png

 

00z GEFS sniffing out something across the GL's region...

156

 

The models are going gun-ho Monster -NAO...

5.png

 

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DMX talking snow squalls ahead of front on Thursday. IMO- they should also be talking snow squalls on Saturday as well along and ahead of the true Arctic Front-- not covering a lot of territory - but those areas that get under one could easily see 1/2' to 1" hour rates- the GFS prateptype_cat.us_mw.pngand Euro -- seeing this at this range is a goof sign for a more robust/widespread event- Consider Snow Squalls the PLains version of Lake Effect-- prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

06z NWS Model blend for the next 10 days.  Not exactly an exciting pattern from what might have been.  😠

NWS Blend 3.png

Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well.

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As we flip the calendar to February here are some preliminary stats for January 2021 and the winter season so far. For January the mean at Grand Rapids was 28.1 and that is a departure of +3.7° There was 9.9” of total snow fall well below the average of around 21” The high for the month was 41 and the low was a mild +11. It has not gotten below zero here now since February 1st, 2019.  While only 9.9” of snow fell there was 23 days with at least a inch of snow on the ground. For the winter season only 15.2” have fallen and this is the 6th lowest amount of snow fall at the start of February in Grand Rapids recorded history. Here is a list of the least amounts of snow fall at the start of February 1. 10.3” in the winter of 1931/32. 2. 11.0” in the winter of 1905/06. 3. 12.5” in the winter of 1918/19. 4. 12.8” in the winter of 1932/33. 5. 14.6” in the winter of 1902/03. And now 6. 15.2” in the winter of 2020/21.

 

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1 hour ago, Jarod said:

Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well.

Lakes are still relatively warm.  With enough cold air and moisture it will add up over time.  This will no doubt be our snowiest month, even without a major storm/s

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1 hour ago, Jarod said:

Well we might finally get some lake effect over here ... although if it gets as cold as the models are showing, it will probably be tiny flake size and not add up real well.

 

4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Lakes are still relatively warm.  With enough cold air and moisture it will add up over time.  This will no doubt be our snowiest month, even without a major storm/s

what extent of cold do we want for moderately sized flakes? The forecasted cold coming down looks a bit similar to 2019

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43 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

 

what extent of cold do we want for moderately sized flakes? The forecasted cold coming down looks a bit similar to 2019

Moisture plays a big part.  It's false to assume it can't snow bigly when it's super cold.  The lake will do enough to make it snow here with that forecasted cold, but get a couple little systems to enhance it, It can dump.  The lake keeps us warmer as well, so 18 degrees surface temp with a west wind LES can add up, meanwhile in Wisconsin it could be -10.  If the winds go lighter and we end up below +10 degrees, tiny flakes and small accumulation.  

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6 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

06z GFS shows below temps for almost 100 straight hours here this weekend into next week. Coldest temp looks to be about -25F. Highly unlikely unless we get some fresh snow cover from the possible Thursday system.  

For those wondering- not even close, But modern day (measured at the Airport)  100 hours is I believe in top 3 or 4.

...ZERO OR BELOW... ...IN HOURS...
LONGEST PERIOD...................*186 CONSECUTIVE HOURS
       FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 THROUGH 1 PM JAN 8 1912
     * NOTE EXCEPT FOR 4 HRS "ABOVE ZERO" DURING THE ABOVE *
     * PERIOD THE RECORD WOULD BE...311 CONSECUTIVE HOURS  *
     * FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 TO 10 AM JAN 13 1912.       *
     * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It's frustrating to watch Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin get overunning snowfall situations all winter when it's cold up there and low pressures head through Kansas and Missouri. You'll see places 500 miles from the LP get snow from the overunning warm air.  Then when the cold dives further south toward us, it squashes the LPs and moisture.  Everything really has to go perfectly for KC to get a good snowstorm.  If the cold is there, it suppresses the moisture to the south.  If the moisture is there, it pushes the cold too far north.  Looks like that's playing out again this week.  

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^^ The same can be said for Iowa for the last several years other than maybe 18-19". DSM and C.IA have been low magnets. Others can attest to this. You just got put your time in and let Ma' Nature take over.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Good chance temps go below zero here in mby w that "Arctic Air." W snowcover around and hopefully more snow to come this week, temps could plummet well below zero. W such a pattern change finally, I feel redivivus.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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44 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

For those wondering- not even close, But modern day (measured at the Airport)  100 hours is I believe in top 3 or 4.


...ZERO OR BELOW... ...IN HOURS...
LONGEST PERIOD...................*186 CONSECUTIVE HOURS
       FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 THROUGH 1 PM JAN 8 1912
     * NOTE EXCEPT FOR 4 HRS "ABOVE ZERO" DURING THE ABOVE *
     * PERIOD THE RECORD WOULD BE...311 CONSECUTIVE HOURS  *
     * FROM...8 PM DEC 31 1911 TO 10 AM JAN 13 1912.       *
     * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Thanks Grizz. That's good stuff. I appreciate the research on that. 

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GEFS took a step in the right direction wrt the weekend system...

 

132

Some very nice hits showing up. Heading in the right direction at least

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2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Moisture plays a big part.  It's false to assume it can't snow bigly when it's super cold.  The lake will do enough to make it snow here with that forecasted cold, but get a couple little systems to enhance it, It can dump.  The lake keeps us warmer as well, so 18 degrees surface temp with a west wind LES can add up, meanwhile in Wisconsin it could be -10.  If the winds go lighter and we end up below +10 degrees, tiny flakes and small accumulation.  

Years ago while I still live in GR I worked in Holland one year in early January (1987 I think) there was one night with light wind and a temperature at Holland near zero and at Holland they got over 15" of snow fall in less then 8 hours. It was a fluffy lake effect snow fall with big flakes. That night on the way home the snow stopped just east of Zeeland and it was clear and -15 at GR. 

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