December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Yes, 1992-93's +ENSO development was extremely late. Who knows where our ENSO will be in a couple months, but based on where it's been the last few months, 1992 was well behind 2014's +ENSO. Beyond that, it was also a winter influenced (to what degree is debatable) by the Pinatubo eruption.

 

Jan 1978 was another weak backdoor event that mostly missed to the east. SEA put up a cold day of 44/32, and even though PDX had Gorge outflow, clouds, and precip they couldn't manage a sub-freezing high.

 

I mean, if you want to count these teaser type events as something to hang your hat on, go for it. I was just looking at actually, full blown, regional Arctic events - the type that produce what people are actually hoping for. Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Jan 2013, Jan 2005, and Jan 1970 would not leave many people all that happy.

Jan 1977 was a real oddball here. Landsburg had a few freezing high temps, a couple of inches of snow that lasted for a number of days, and a monthly average of 32 degrees. If the early month snowfall had been larger it could have been a really solid month. At any rate almost all of these years had major blocking. The details of the blocking will be deciding factor in how it works out. We have as a good a chance as anyone.

 

Really looking at this it's truly amazing how prevalent extreme blocks are in January with this ENSO state.

[BLI snowman]

There is no question that nearly every weak +ENSO winter since 1950 either hit us with a full blast or at least clipped us with an Arctic outbreak in January...usually early Jan. Even including the second year Ninos 1969-70 and 1977-78 which still had cold air masses at least clip us (as you've mentioned). The window of opportunity is certainly open.

 

You are correct when you say this ENSO state brings the most predictable winters of any except strong Nino.

 

I would say that relatively weak positive ENSO is one of our best bets for seeing midwinter cold anomalies (in the December 25 to January 20 period). Generally speaking the pattern has been there since the 1800s. And late winter will likely be dullsville.

[Front Ranger]

I think some of your examples had a warm/ neutral winter followed by a Nino as opposed to back to back Ninos. I think the point I'm trying to make is this ENSO state brings probably the highest chance of any ENSO state of producing a solid cold snap to the NW in Jan...usually early Jan. Even if your talking about 50% of them paying off that is still quite good.

 

As I also mentioned...Phil has been touting that time frame for weeks now based on entirely different criteria. Very good chance this one will work out. We'll see I guess.

 

Hey, don't forget I do agree that weak ENSO provides the CONUS (including the PNW) a better overall chance of major Arctic outbreaks than most ENSO states. 1956-57, 1958-59, 1961-62, 1962-63, 1976-77, 1978-79, 1981-82, 1983-84, 1990-91, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2000-01, 2003-04, 2008-09, 2013-14...all weak/neutral ENSO years that featured major, and often top tier cold waves repeatedly hitting the U.S.

 

And yes, a lot of them occurred in January.

[BLI snowman]

Yes, 1992-93's +ENSO development was extremely late. Who knows where our ENSO will be in a couple months, but based on where it's been the last few months, 1992 was well behind 2014's +ENSO. Beyond that, it was also a winter influenced (to what degree is debatable) by the Pinatubo eruption.

 

Jan 1978 was another weak backdoor event that mostly missed to the east. SEA put up a cold day of 44/32, and even though PDX had Gorge outflow, clouds, and precip they couldn't manage a sub-freezing high.

 

I mean, if you want to count these teaser type events as something to hang your hat on, go for it. I was just looking at actual, full blown, regional Arctic events - the type that produce what people are actually hoping for. Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Jan 2013, Jan 2005, and Jan 1970 would not leave many people all that happy.

 

1992-93 fits the general pattern pretty well, although it was colder than most of these other years. Like other weak positive ENSO years, the best pattern that winter was in the late December and early/mid January period. That's the pattern that we're looking for.

 

PDX had 3 straight highs of 33 in January 1978 and a significant (1/2") ice storm. It was a decent event down there. We had close to an inch of ice in Bellingham. Spokane was 11/-11 on 1/1/1978.  Seattle area just really underachieved with that, elsewhere it was an impactful event. 

[Front Ranger]

PDX had 3 straight highs of 33 in January 1978 and a significant (1/2") ice storm. It was a decent event down there. We had close to an inch of ice in Bellingham. Spokane was 11/-11 on 1/1/1978.  Seattle area just really underachieved with that, elsewhere it was an impactful event. 

 

Yeah, I mean if almost freezing highs in a couple places and ice storms float your boat...like I said, I was just looking for true Arctic blasts, not brushes to the east. If we saw a Jan 1978 redux, I doubt many people would call that a score. It would fall into the "darn, close but no cigar" category that leaves everyone wanting to kick kittens.

[Phil]

I'm surprised nobody is commenting on how much better the GFS is looking in the longer range. Heights are rising over the Pacific and dropping over much of the US.

I thought you were smarter than this

 

It's one thing to look at the ensembles at that range, but the OP run is pretty much worthless past day 10..and that's a fairly generous assessment

[westiztehbest]

CFS and Euro weeklies have switched to perpetual warm anomalies for the entire forecast period.  Cold for the end of the month and January is looking unlikely at this time.

[Phil]

Yes, 1992-93's +ENSO development was extremely late. Who knows where our ENSO will be in a couple months, but based on where it's been the last few months, 1992 was well behind 2014's +ENSO. Beyond that, it was also a winter influenced (to what degree is debatable) by the Pinatubo eruption.

 

Jan 1978 was another weak backdoor event that mostly missed to the east. SEA put up a cold day of 44/32, and even though PDX had Gorge outflow, clouds, and precip they couldn't manage a sub-freezing high.

 

I mean, if you want to count these teaser type events as something to hang your hat on, go for it. I was just looking at actual, full blown, regional Arctic events - the type that produce what people are actually hoping for. Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Jan 2013, Jan 2005, and Jan 1970 would not leave many people all that happy.

Pinatubo's effect on the BDC/winter stratosphere was very significant all the way into 1994. That, and the solar aspect pretty much removes 1992-93 as a viable analog for JFM, in my opinion.

[Phil]

CFS and Euro weeklies have switched to perpetual warm anomalies for the entire forecast period. Cold for the end of the month and January is looking unlikely at this time.

Yeah, kind of like the forecasts for November.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I mean if almost freezing highs in a couple places and ice storms float your boat...like I said, I was just looking for true Arctic blasts, not brushes to the east. If we saw a Jan 1978 redux, I doubt many people would call that a score. It would fall into the "darn, close but no cigar" category that leaves everyone wanting to kick kittens.

 

For the Bellingham area I'd take a 1978 repeat in a heartbeat over what we've had in most recent Januaries. 9" of snow at Blaine on 1/3/1978.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS and Euro weeklies have switched to perpetual warm anomalies for the entire forecast period.  Cold for the end of the month and January is looking unlikely at this time.

 

This is true. Perhaps part of the reason for my pessimism.

[snow_wizard]

CFS and Euro weeklies have switched to perpetual warm anomalies for the entire forecast period.  Cold for the end of the month and January is looking unlikely at this time.

The last update I saw...from Sunday looked cold. One bad day is meaningless.

[snow_wizard]

This is true. Perhaps part of the reason for my pessimism.

You have got to be kidding. There were like 7 or 8 good CFS runs in a row. You seriously think one bad run means anything?

[Gradient Keeper]

CFS and Euro weeklies have switched to perpetual warm anomalies for the entire forecast period.  Cold for the end of the month and January is looking unlikely at this time.

W I _ _ E _

C _ _ C E _

 

Would you like to solve the puzzle now?

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM Deep low, but peaks off the northern California coast, then weakens very quickly as it moves northeast. Breezy to gusty conditions, but not a wind storm. 6z GFS fairly deep low, but weakens north of Newport. Breezy to gusty winds, but not a wind storm.

I am still leaning against any wind storm due to the nature of the split jet/trough energy inside 130 W..... but who knows. 12z runs could be a dud or real exciting.

 

Onto 12z runs. NAM in 3 hours 35 minutes. GFS in 5 hours 17 minutes. WRF in 5 hours 30 minutes. ECMWF in 7 hours 50 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

I did run across this info from PaulB/Eugene on the Fox 12 Blog. He's very knowledgeable, so often it is worth listening to his insight.

paulbeugene says: 
December 9, 2014 at 12:24 am 
"Just saw the 50-member Euro ensembles. Much more support for an intense low to track rapidly N along the Oregon Coast. Things may be coming together for the biggest windstorm thus far in this millennium for NW Oregon urban areas.

I imagine NWS will issue SPS tomorrow morning and a perhaps a high wind watch by Wednesday .

I imagine the pummeling the Doug firs took from the east winds followed by significant rains is a set up for trees coming down."

-----------------------------------------------------

Hmmm..............

[Tyler Mode]

This cool air continues to be very shallow.

At my house in Battle Ground it is 46 degrees at 300'.

 

Meanwhile, at my friend Brian's house, 2 miles east and at 500', it's 60 degrees this morning.  The warm air is blowing over the top of the cool air still.  It'll be a nice temp jump when this mixes out.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[Tyler Mode]

The NAM now shows a compact low as others have.  It keeps it a little further south.

[Parksvillewx]

A balmy 53F here this AM. Pounding rain and strong wind all night.

[Snow]

The new upgraded high resolution 12z GFS-Parallel is not backing down from hurricane force wind gust in the Willamette Valley and hurricane force sustained winds along the Oregon coast. The Sou'Wester strengthens as it races up the Oregon coastline. I am excited and scared at the same time.      
 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014120912/gfsp_mslp_wind_us_10.png

[Jesse]

Only 40 out in Stevenson this morning.

 

It will be interesting to see how far into the 60s PDX gets when they switch to south winds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unbelievable torch going on out there right now. SLE currently at 62 at 8am! 

 

Several points on my drive in this morning my car thermometer read 64!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The new upgraded high resolution 12z GFS-Parallel is not backing down from hurricane force wind gust in the Willamette Valley and hurricane force sustained winds along the Oregon coast. The Sou'Wester strengthens as it races up the Oregon coastline. I am excited and scared at the same time.      

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014120912/gfsp_mslp_wind_us_10.png

 

973mb, looks like that low is trending a little deeper.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You have got to be kidding. There were like 7 or 8 good CFS runs in a row. You seriously think one bad run means anything?

 

I wonder if we look at a different CFS? Because I check it every day and its been pretty torchy/splitty/Ninoish for about a week or two now.

[Bham_Guy]

Currently 62 at BLI, with a 55 MPH wind gust.

[Snow]

973mb, looks like that low is trending a little deeper.

 

This has to be the highest wind gust the WRF-GFS has ever spit out in the Valleys, love the white it shows in the Willamette Valley. Looks like you guys up north will also get hurricane force wind gust as well.

 

http://oi59.tinypic.com/2i1m39y.jpghttp://oi58.tinypic.com/307ouhl.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thats a fast moving low!

[Tyler Mode]

The 12z vs the 0z is slightly further south with the low and the winds, but also a tad stronger.

[Tyler Mode]

CHECK OUT BELLINGHAM!

 

I don't remember seeing a stronger gust there...but haven't been tracking their conditions too long.

 

09 Dec 8:53 am PST 63 49 60   SSE 33G67 10.00  

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72&raw=0

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CHECK OUT BELLINGHAM!

 

I don't remember seeing a stronger gust there...but haven't been tracking their conditions too long.

 

09 Dec 8:53 am PST 63 49 60   SSE 33G67 10.00  

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72&raw=0

 

That is incredible. 

 

Isn't the 63 getting close to an all-time December high?

[IbrChris]

Unbelievable torch going on out there right now. SLE currently at 62 at 8am!

 

Several points on my drive in this morning my car thermometer read 64!

I believe all time Dec record at PDX is 66...this is about as subtropical as it gets in Dec around here. Fairly heavy rain looks to be moving in as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have December 1929 like warmth out there this morning. 

[Jesse]

That is incredible.

 

Isn't the 63 getting close to an all-time December high?

63 ties their all-time December high.

 

It's been a strange ride this year.

[Snow]

Take a look at the new 12z Soundings for PDX at Thursday 10am. The wind field is aligned directly south to north and shows 50 knots (57.6 mph) sustained winds at the surface and 60 knots (69.1 mph) to 70 knots (80.6 mph) sustained at 1,000 feet. We are talking hurricane force sustained winds. If this verifies, this is going to cause catastrophic damage in the western lowlands.

 

http://oi58.tinypic.com/2923ev7.jpg

[bainbridgekid]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2014/12/is-major-windstorm-headed-for-northwest.html

"The UK MET office model, which is the second best in the world, is now going for a storm, but a weaker one."

 

Does he have a European fetish or is there something to that?

 

BTW that 67 mph gust with a temperature of 63 at BLI is absolutely insane!

[WS Snow]

Anyone seeing any signs of colder weather in the extended or will the torch continue into January?

[Black Hole]

"The UK MET office model, which is the second best in the world, is now going for a storm, but a weaker one."

 

Does he have a European fetish or is there something to that?

 

BTW that 67 mph gust with a temperature of 63 at BLI is absolutely insane!

 It is the second best as shown on the verification charts.

[Tyler Mode]

Finally warming up here.  54

[bainbridgekid]

 It is the second best as shown on the verification charts.

Is that a recent development?

 

I heard it recently got a huge upgrade that increased its resolution significantly.

[ShawniganLake]

Anyone seeing any signs of colder weather in the extended or will the torch continue into January?

It will cool off some from the crazy torching of this week.  But overall it looks fairly mild through Christmas at this point.