Slushy Inch Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 And the block is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 22 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: C'mon GOA ridge...pump it up, pump it up!!!! It's low "T". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The block might be re-forming at the end of the ECMWF run... but it seems like we have to get rid of the first block before the details of that even begin to settle out. So messy! 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: This is one time when there aren't really any trends. Each run seems to be completely opposite of the last run. Yeah getting excited about anything past 120hrs is just Dumb. 4 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Yeah getting excited about anything past 120hrs is just Dumb. I think people are just getting excited about the possibilities and not the specific details... and there is definitely a chance with the pattern being so volatile. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: The block might be re-forming at the end of the ECMWF run... but it seems like we have to get rid of the first block before the details of that even begin to settle out. So messy! The volatility continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 At least we are not talking about death today! 2 1 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Too funny... the 12Z ECMWF just morphs into a great looking pattern right at the end of the run after being a total mess for the days leading up to that time. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 0.27” so far today...1.17” on the month. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Either +8c or -11c by days 5/6. Pretty much the same thing as throwing a dart at a board while being blindfolded. Who knows where it will end up... I didn't see that you already posted this. I deleted my version. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF... 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: At least we are not talking about death today! My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Too funny... the 12Z ECMWF just morphs into a great looking pattern right at the end of the run after being a total mess for the days leading up to that time. Dangle that carrot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Seasonably cool for sure 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1.02" in past 24 hours and 1.14" for the month. Currently 40 after a low of 39.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Enjoy the chaos that is the 12Z ECMWF... watch the first block just evaporate and then completely re-form again later. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro is reminiscent of 2-2014. 1 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The SE ridge has been strangely absent this winter. Given the la niña in place, I expected to see it once or twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: Euro is reminiscent of 2-2014. Seahawks! It was sunny and cold in Seatte for the parade. I heard something different was happening in Eugene! 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Euro is reminiscent of 2-2014. Don’t give us hope like that Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Well how about that! Major improvement on the ECMWF. The big change is it keeps the PV in Canada this weekend instead of driving into the Upper Midwest. Fantastic changes! Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Euro is reminiscent of 2-2014. That one snuck up on us bigly. Ended up with almost a foot of snow at the Pelican Pub in Pacific City on the coast!!! 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 February 2014 was our last sub 30 high temp. 28/21 here on 2/6. Has been 7 years since we’ve had a sub 30 high quite sad. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 At hour 150, 850mb temps are 11 degrees colder on the Euro than the GFS. -7 on the Euro and +4 on the GFS. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The ECMWF spits out 37 / 25 for SEA on day 9 with a low of 22 on day 10. It even has a chilly 43 / 31 for next Monday. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, bainbridgekid said: At hour 150, 850mb temps are 11 degrees colder on the Euro than the GFS. -7 on the Euro and +4 on the GFS. Models have been sh*t this winter but this seems even more chaotic than usual. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Enjoy the chaos that is the 12Z ECMWF... watch the first block just evaporate and then completely re-form again later. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Don’t give us hope like that It’s 7+ days out and threads a needle while riding a unicycle while legally intoxicated. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: At hour 150, 850mb temps are 11 degrees colder on the Euro than the GFS. -7 on the Euro and +4 on the GFS. Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 This has to be one of the all time great examples of model chaos I have ever seen. That includes the old MRF days. The coming pattern is ridiculously complex. It's pretty obvious there could still be more improvement coming even as soon as day 5 on future runs. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The ECMWF at day 10 looks very similar to what it once showed for this coming weekend. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It’s 7+ days out and threads a needle while riding a unicycle while legally intoxicated. Lol like double the limit. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: This has to be one of the all time great examples of model chaos I have ever seen. That includes the old MRF days. The coming pattern is ridiculously complex. It's pretty obvious there could still be more improvement coming even as soon as day 5 on future runs. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It’s 7+ days out and threads a needle while riding a unicycle while legally intoxicated. The run brushes us with cold before that though. Something not there on previous runs. I think if the PV stays in Canada like this run shows it will bode better for us than if it plunges into the Midwest. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS 12z illustrates what I meant by baby steps with the GFS 00z and a gradual vs abrupt change in the model. Nice to see Arctic air cross the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The 12z EPS does shift the cold air west in the midrange. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The interesting thing is the GFS and ECMWF turn cold here close to the same tine even though they take different paths getting there. Both runs get pretty cold. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 It will all be different in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12Z EPS at 180 hours... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The run brushes us with cold before that though. Something not there on previous runs. I think if the PV stays in Canada like this run shows it will bode better for us than if it plunges into the Midwest. Eh, there's no driver for that first blocking episode. That’s been a very consistent feature since the runs late last week which entertained the idea of full latitude blocking. Also, models have loved the idea of these quasi-retrograding lobes all winter at varying latitudes. The models have struggled with them massively. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Bryant,
11 reactions
Go to this post