February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

LOTS and perhaps kittens or other furry woodland creatures.

How about pictures of daffodils and tulips?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS. We have lift off! Initialization HR 0 (Past 12 runs)

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

Looks like the 12z Euro was on to something.

How? The NAM and ICON are both better than the 18z.

[Omegaraptor]

Surprised no one mentioned the JMA. It looks kold and snowee, but still on 12z.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

I'll gladly take that ICON instead of a low racing north and wiping out the cold. 

Hopefully 00z GFS will hold firm or suppress things a bit further. Probably wishful thinking but clearly the models are still all over the place. Will disregard the disgusting 00z NAM since no one should really trust the NAM at 84 hrs.

The NAM had heights suppressed compared to the 18z.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

I'll gladly take that ICON instead of a low racing north and wiping out the cold. 

Hopefully 00z GFS will hold firm or suppress things a bit further. Probably wishful thinking but clearly the models are still all over the place. Will disregard the disgusting 00z NAM since no one should really trust the NAM at 84 hrs.

Me too. 

I just have ZERO faith in the ICON.    It has been literally all over the place.   Just crazy bad.   Much worse than the GFS or ECMWF. 

[paulb/eugene]

did anyone mention the JMA?  Shows lots of moisture over southern half of Oregon with cold air

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

How? The NAM and ICON are both better than the 18z.

The NAM shows some snow on Thursday morning for us... but that is bad situation at 84 hours.   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The NAM had heights suppressed compared to the 18z.

Dude.    

[MWG]

7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

We might need a lot of puppy pictures tonight. 

 

Here we go! 

He is not a puppy but his face is most of the people in the forum right now.

[MossMan]

Will the end of the week look like this...

Or like that....

The 0z GFS will answer all of our questions! 

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Me too. 

I just have ZERO faith in the ICON.    It has been literally all over the place.   Just crazy bad.   Much worse than the GFS or ECMWF. 

Agree, and as fun as the GEM's crazy arctic outbreak looks...we all know the odds of that verifying are pretty close to 0. I think it does mostly come down to ECMWF vs GFS now. GEM will cave tomorrow if it doesn't by tonight.

[snow drift]

Just now, MossMan said:

Will the end of the week look like this...

Or like that....

The 0z GFS will answer all of our questions! 

Your dogs don't care either way. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude.    

Where’s my car

[paulb/eugene]

[TT-SEA]

Turning to snow here now.

[Meatyorologist]

GFS does have a bit more energy breaking off to the north, leading to the idea of a slightly warmer run. Byt we saw how cold the 18z was anyways, so this might not be that bad for many...

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

We might need a lot of puppy pictures tonight. 

 

Here we go! 

Ask and ye shall receive

[wxmet]

GFS 00z is running. Primary focus will be on the low over the Northwestern Territories and the speed of its evolution as it moves south.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pivotal stopped lol

 

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

did anyone mention the JMA?  Shows lots of moisture over southern half of Oregon with cold air

Looks good. We usually turn to the JMA when the event is on life support though.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

I like the OTH-GEG -30mb gradient

[Blizzard777]

18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Oh god ICON knows what’s up there’s no turning back save yourselves 

 

Lol, thank you for that !

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Pivotal stopped lol

 

Per usual. IMO this will be a warmer run as a whole, but not a total washout. And even if it were, it's really too early to say anything definitive.

[paulb/eugene]

00z no change at 15h

[Kolk1604]

Just now, nwsnow said:

Looks good. We usually turn to the JMA when the event is on life support though.

The Euro is the only model that's warm. The NAM doesn't count cause it just sucks anyway

Who put it on life support?

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Ask and ye shall receive

Dog version of Phil.

[Timmy Supercell]

54/13 today at KLMT. In the first week warm highs are not as common as late Feb. On 02/25/2014 I remember almost reaching 70.

 

[wxmet]

GFS is slightly lagging with the upper low over Canada compared to 18z out to 36hr.

[Slushy Inch]

Can we all calm down, the GFS and Euro aren't even out, when have the NAM or ICON been reliable models?

[paulb/eugene]

Just now, paulb/eugene said:

00z no change at 15h

21h...no change

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Ask and ye shall receive

Sadly, it looks better than most of the runs.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

54/13 today at KLMT. In the first week warm highs are not as common as late Feb. On 02/25/2014 I remember almost reaching 70.

 

That's funny because there was about a foot of snow on the ground in Bellingham that day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This will probably be a great run given people are already saying its worse at hour 18. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Jeez. I go to the bathroom real fast, and then it starts running like its on steroids.

 

Day 2

 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

That's funny because there was about a foot of snow on the ground in Bellingham that day.

I'm assuming any snow at the end of that February wasn't nearly as regional as Feb 6-7? The east sides were totally bare down here. I had a few inches from the big one earlier.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5

[wxmet]

By 63hr, things are speeding up a bit and now a little ahead of 18z and 12z.

[Blizzard777]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Ask and ye shall receive

Same tongue action.  Happens when their teeth fall out  

My daughter rescued this lightweight dog (Moe) many moons ago and nursed him back to life.  He selected me as the head of the pack!  

[Meatyorologist]

Cutoff over the Pacific further north, but on the 18z it was barely good enough for Portland, so it might not be too bad... Cutting it close though. LOTS of uncertainty with this feature.