February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[GHweatherChris]

Now we just need this to get to the believable range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Mark saw the 00z. 

[Meatyorologist]

Hey @DJ Droppin, I think you're gonna like this!

[Jbolin]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Hey @DJ Droppin, I think you're gonna like this!

Wow

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not gonna lie, I’m gonna pretty darn peeved if I get 2” while Portland has 20”.

I’m greedy when it comes to snow!

[Perturbed Member]

Just now, wxmet said:

Heh. This where the IMBY comes into play. Not a good trajectory for Washington especially with an easterly gradient.

True, all your moisture is getting obliterated. Very few tracks any of these storms can take where it nails almost all of us

[The Swamp]

Tim, can you tell us when it will be 41 and raining should we get some cold and snow?  I gotta know.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Not gonna lie, I’m gonna pretty darn peeved if I get 2” while Portland has 20”.

I’m greedy when it comes to snow!

Aren't we all?

[paulb/eugene]

That’s a shipload of precip

[GHweatherChris]

Fyi, believeable range has now been moved to inside of 6 hours, or 1 model run before any event/non event.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Not gonna lie, I’m gonna pretty darn peeved if I get 2” while Portland has 20”.

I’m greedy when it comes to snow!

Me too! Trend north!! (Just a tad, not too much, just a hair)

[snow_wizard]

Ensemble mean is already down to -11.2 as far as the run has gone.  Not backing off an iota.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Heh. This where the IMBY comes into play. Not a good trajectory for Washington especially with an easterly gradient.

Yeah. You can see that the model is struggling to bring moisture up north as it get eaten or very light by the easterly. Hopefully the Euro finds a middle ground for this where we will do well regionally rather than just a IMBY for WA. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW the GEM is going to be a lot more sober this time around...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Enjoy the view before the king dashes our hopes and dreams???

[Kolk1604]

More snow next Sunday/Monday. Temps in the low 20s. Uppers teens to the south. 

[MossMan]

Down to 35. 
DP 33. 

[TT-SEA]

Snowing hard here now. 

[snow drift]

I wonder what Pierre has up his sleeve tonight. Will we be popping a cork from a bottle of Moet Chandon or twisting off a cap from a bottle of Night Train Express?

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW the GEM is going to be a lot more sober this time around...

I wanna see if it has a somewhat rational take on the situation instead of whatever the 12z was...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM is good too... Just realistic this time. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM MEGA blast Gorge, Columbia Basin. I did not see that coming I thought it would pull back a little.

[SeanNyberg]

I love how the Seattle folk are just chilling, the northern runs shows more snow for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts. The Southern runs shows more snow for Oregon, less for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts.

The Seattle area folks are very calm, it's sort of funny. Been on these boards for years now and I didn't realize there was such a big freak-out (both excited and doomsday) differential between the states.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The surface obs show temps in the 20s for the Seattle area hour 204.  Long cold wave!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First storm on the GEM. Similar result to GFS, slightly delayed timing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

I love how the Seattle folk are just chilling, the northern runs shows more snow for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts. The Southern runs shows more snow for Oregon, less for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts.

The Seattle area folks are very calm, it's sort of funny. Been on these boards for years now and I didn't realize there was such a big freak-out (both excited and doomsday) differential between the states.

Could it be Oregon has been hosed two years in a row while WA has scored big both years in some spots?

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

I love how the Seattle folk are just chilling, the northern runs shows more snow for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts. The Southern runs shows more snow for Oregon, less for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts.

The Seattle area folks are very calm, it's sort of funny. Been on these boards for years now and I didn't realize there was such a big freak-out (both excited and doomsday) differential between the states.

When you get less snow on average, it means more. Plus the recency of February 2019 and January 2020 both sting in the memories of Oregon posters.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Enjoy the view before the king dashes our hopes and dreams???

As I say...all it has to do is trend toward the GFS slightly and we are golden.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First storm on the GEM. Similar result to GFS, slightly delayed timing. 

A night in the drunk tank served the Gem well. He's more in line with the Gfs.

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

When you get less snow on average, it means more. Plus the recency of February 2019 and January 2020 both sting in the memories of Oregon posters.

Sure, makes sense. Just is becoming more and more apparent.  
It's either all or nothing. A bit exhausting, but interesting. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Mark saw the 00z. 

Go BIG or go HOME!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could it be Oregon has been hosed two years in a row while WA has scored big both years in some spots?

I think it's because we are feeling pretty safe it will get cold here, and the snow will probably come.

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I love how the Seattle folk are just chilling, the northern runs shows more snow for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts. The Southern runs shows more snow for Oregon, less for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts.

The Seattle area folks are very calm, it's sort of funny. Been on these boards for years now and I didn't realize there was such a big freak-out (both excited and doomsday) differential between the states.

Go check out the Jan 2017 thread 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I love how the Seattle folk are just chilling, the northern runs shows more snow for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts. The Southern runs shows more snow for Oregon, less for Western Washington, the Oregon crew goes nuts.

The Seattle area folks are very calm, it's sort of funny. Been on these boards for years now and I didn't realize there was such a big freak-out (both excited and doomsday) differential between the states.

A lot of spots in the WV haven't had a sub-freezing high in over 4 years. That might have something to do with it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2nd system on the GEM is a major snow event from Medford to EUG, Salem is to far north to even see accumulating snow with that one. 

 

[wxmet]

I feel safe with the ECMWF 

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Dog version of Phil.

B*tch.

[Kolk1604]

More snow next Monday/Tuesday. Temps still in the 20s. 

[Timmy Supercell]

14 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Not gonna lie, I’m gonna pretty darn peeved if I get 2” while Portland has 20”.

I’m greedy when it comes to snow!

I live where it's supposed to snow, I understand where you're coming from. On an earlier run Bend got two feet and I got 3". That may have never happened from the same storm in my experience.

At least this time it's showing a solid foot.