February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 PLEASE 12z EURO move towards this.

[Kolk1604]

Cold through Friday. Can I get some precip please?

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic air moves into PDX 10 PM Wednesday... That is under 3 days from now

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

6z gives PDX a foot of snow on Thursday. Playing with fire though with warm air and all rain Salem South.

I expect more would fall up here given the way it looks also.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS hasn't blinked yet....

[snow_wizard]

This is a good run.  We should have expected a compromise like this.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS hasn't blinked yet.... Could it be handling the pattern with the offshore ridge/merger and cut-off correctly?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

GFS hasn't blinked yet....

Other than that brief loop out over the ocean.

[bainbridgekid]

Saturday storm looks like it's a lot further North on the 6z.

EDIT: It still ends up going into Central Oregon.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bruh...

[snow drift]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

GFS hasn't blinked yet.... Could it be handling the pattern with the offshore ridge/merger and cut-off correctly?

It's possible in a complicated situation like this. We may not know until late in the game.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

GFS hasn't blinked yet.... Could it be handling the pattern with the offshore ridge/merger and cut-off correctly?

I think it comes down to the known bias the ECMWF has to tuck too much energy underneath blocks.  The ECMWF is not gospel.

[Bryant]

It's depressing watching the cold up here just annihilate any moisture that tries to come on shore 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Jbolin]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

GFS hasn't blinked yet.... Could it be handling the pattern with the offshore ridge/merger and cut-off correctly?

Wouldn't be the first time Rob, you of all people should know this.

[Kolk1604]

I feel like this would be crippling for PDX. Over a foot with temps in the low to mid 20s 

[Jbolin]

Rob, Jim, Andrew, BLI, 

Any of you how much the EURO/GFS waffled in Feb '19 leading up to that "event"?

[smerfylicious]

Snowing, but not sticking, in North Seattle per SDOT cameras.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Aight, seizures are setting in. Time to go join m'lady. Night all. See you for the soul-crushing morning runs.

Last pretty snow map of the night from me:

[Jbolin]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Aight, seizures are setting in. Time to go join m'lady. Night all. See you for the soul-crushing morning runs.

Take it easy man

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Seattle -12.7c but note how many colder members

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Aight, seizures are setting in. Time to go join m'lady. Night all. See you for the soul-crushing morning runs.

Take care of yourself bro

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Aight, seizures are setting in. Time to go join m'lady. Night all. See you for the soul-crushing morning runs.

Last pretty snow map of the night from me:

Take care

lol soul crusher that makes me laugh. I swear I've heard that before somewhere...

[Gradient Keeper]

The Dalles touch colder at -18.3c, but note the tight grouping of members even colder fro -19c to -23c. Interesting.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

The Dalles touch colder at -18.3c, but note the tight grouping of members even colder fro -19c to -23c. Interesting.

At what time?  

Temps have moderated a week from Tuesday 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

At what time?  

Temps have moderated a week from Tuesday 

Day 2 to 4.5

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 2 to 4.5

lol never mind. I was at like Day 9

[Gradient Keeper]

Alright that's it for me. I MIGHT be here for 12z GFS. I do have to leave around 10:25 AM though enough time to see Day 1-5 of the 12z EURO. Have a good night all.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Alright that's it for me. I MIGHT be here for 12z GFS. I do have to leave around 10:25 AM though enough time to see Day 1-5 of the 12z EURO. Have a good night all.

Night Rob. This run was still cold, but moderated a bit sooner. 

Can't wait for the 12z runs and hopefully cold and snowy! 

[van city]

1 hour ago, Bryant said:

It's depressing watching the cold up here just annihilate any moisture that tries to come on shore 

Not over until it's over.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, JBolin said:

Rob, Jim, Andrew, BLI, 

Any of you how much the EURO/GFS waffled in Feb '19 leading up to that "event"?

I feel like there was quite a bit of jumping around in the models until about 2-3 days before the event and then they honed in on that northern track. 

[The Blob]

I hope it does sump snow here, I like to see the city suffer with crippling snow and cold. 

[ShawniganLake]

Continental air is beginning to trickle into the Fraser Valley with dewpoints dropping in Hope and Agassiz

[Esquimalt]

RGEM looks very similar to the EURO. good for northern areas

[snow maniac]

3 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

What kind of witch craft is that, bullseye of nothingness over me

3 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel like this would be crippling for PDX. Over a foot with temps in the low to mid 2

 

[Esquimalt]

12Z nam looks possibly further north 

[Blizzard777]

CZ has been so close

32* currently 

ENE wind 3-5mph 

[Mercurial]

NICE!

[TT-SEA]

A solid 2 inches here... all the trees are caked  and the roads are a mess.