February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like this run will be really snowy for the Puget Sound region.  Two moisture sources converging.  The area north of Seattle does pretty well on Wednesday from an apparent Arctic front.

You have been BLESSED!

[Skagit Weather]

Pivotal shows precipitation as rain on Wednesday morning up here on the Euro with temperatures in the mid 30s. Hopefully that's not the case, but I think it will be kind of a close call if there's precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[GobBluth]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Frigid!

[Timmy]

Just now, GobBluth said:

Frigid!

He is just doing his tim maps impression. The next frame looks better 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Trending to the GFS. Um okay

[MWG]

9 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

A couple of times it has snowed through the entirety of February (2019, 2012) but yes probably my most notable events and 3-day totals tend to be at the end of Feb going into March.

02/25-27 2019 - 10" (3 day)
02/28-03/01 2012 - 9.75" (3 day)
02/23-24 2011 - 8.5" (2 day)
One exception to this rule was in 2017 I had a quick 6.6" fall early on Feb 7.

Nothing from the 17-18 winter was very noteworthy in K-Falls as I had no individual day over 3", much like this winter so far. But that'll change I think.

Yeah, 2017 was that major event in the first week of January that we had a couple of days of snow that got us a foot of snow at least at my home. Then we had snow falling in March 6th that same year which was crazy to me!

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like some snow from the south sound to PDX at hour 90. Very close call for PDX...but they’re still in the game. 

[snow_wizard]

Yes!  Much colder run and we still get snow here.  Yee haw!

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, MWG said:

Yeah, 2017 was that major event in the first week of January that we had a couple of days of snow that got us a foot of snow at least at my home. Then we had snow falling in March 6th that same year which was crazy to me!

That Jan 3-4 storm still remains my biggest in such short time. My next door neighbors who moved here in the 80's said it was the most they've seen in one day since the 1990's. I'm sure it was 1993 they meant.

18.4" over 26 hours. If there was compaction that's 20-21" or around there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1. Looks like a little snow for PDX  on the EURO. 

[Kolk1604]

Friday morning. Surface temps colder this run, snow increasing 

 

[Jesse]

Definite step in the right direction for the Euro.

[Bryant]

These models really don't want to include Whatcom County in on the fun

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting how each run is warmer, and delays the cold air a bit more. 

[Omegaraptor]

Much better than previous Euro so far. Maybe the GFS/GEM and Euro are coming to an in-between solution?

[TacomaWaWx]

No crazy northward trend and some snow from Seattle to Portland roughly. Crazy temp gradient south of Portland! Sorry TWL. Things are looking good...no lows running way up into BC. 

[The Blob]

I'm honestly okay with just having the really cold temps, snow is just icing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Definite step in the right direction for the Euro.

Still all rain here.

Just checked the sounding over your house. Looks like a sleet profile! 

[Andrew M]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting how each run is warmer, and delays the cold air a bit more. 

Yet also increasing snow for PDX at the same time, at least so far

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No crazy northward trend and some snow from Seattle to Portland roughly. Crazy temp gradient south of Portland! Sorry TWL. Things are looking good...no lows running way up into BC. 

I hope TWL at least gets a sub-40 low. 

[Deweydog]

Definitely a much better run for low level outflow.

[TT-SEA]

Love the more suppressed look of the 12Z ECMWF.     The northward trend has stopped.

[Gradient Keeper]

Huge key changes on this run. The trend for the arctic trough to elongate and also merge with the offshore system isn't on this run allowing colder air to slide further south. Exactly like the GFS

 

PDX Friday 4 PM 22 F, Strong east wind, snowing.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still all rain here.

Just checked the sounding over your house. Looks like a sleet profile! 

You definitely haven’t gotten any less irritating in the last five years!

1/3/16 was a great little snow event.

[Omegaraptor]

If it could get just a little colder at 850mb...

[snow_wizard]

Loos like a possible huge snow event setting up or Friday night / Saturday morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Love the more suppressed look of the 12Z ECMWF.     The northward trend has stopped.

That’s the biggest takeaway from this. Many were anticipating the snow being taken up into BC...very encouraging signs on the euro this morning. 

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX Day 5 Blizzard conditions

[Skagit Weather]

This looks like the best Euro run to me (at least in the upper levels) since Saturday night. Of course that means there's less snow up here, but what can you do.

[OysterPrintout]

This seems about as good as you can hope for here in PDX considering the lead up to this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. PDX-DLS -14mb !!!

[snow_wizard]

This looks potentially epic.

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If it could get just a little colder at 850mb...

Right now things are moving in the right direction at least. Big picture is the undercutting idea started by the Euro yesterday morning has for now been abandoned by the Euro, and it has backpeddled a bit toward the GFS. Cant ask for much more given how the trends were looking yesterday unless of course you are a massive, insufferable weenie like Andrew Greenlaugh Johnson. :’)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel bad for Randy and Bryant. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow through Saturday AM...

Snowmizer...This will shift north a bit...Should probably get your plow! 

[The Blob]

Just now, MossMan said:

Snowmizer...This will shift north a bit...Should prothonotary get your plow! 

Still 10in for PDX

[MossMan]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel bad for Randy and Bryant. 

It will shift north a bit...We will be just fine!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Jesse said:

Right now things are moving in the right direction at least. Big picture is the massive undercutting idea started by the Euro yesterday morning has for now been abandoned by the Euro, and it has backpeddled a bit toward the GFS. Cant ask for much more given how the trends were looking yesterday unless of course you are a massive, insufferable weenie like Andrew Greenlaugh Johnson. :’)

Thank you Jessie Krause.

[TacomaWaWx]

Very good run overall unless you live south of portland. Really good run for western WA...several sub freezing days and some snow later in the week. Odds for something good are increasing!