February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can only hope things trend warmer and Jesse gets sleet. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

You definitely haven’t gotten any less irritating in the last five years!

1/3/16 was a great little snow event.

Poor Wilsonville had only 1/4" in that one, it was a few days before coming back down here from the visit.

How much did other locations get?

[OysterPrintout]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can only hope things trend warmer and Jesse gets sleet. 

seems like you were already hoping that like 2 frames into the run

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Right now things are moving in the right direction at least. Big picture is the massive undercutting idea started by the Euro yesterday morning has for now been abandoned by the Euro, and it has backpeddled a bit toward the GFS. Cant ask for much more given how the trends were looking yesterday unless of course you are a massive, insufferable weenie like Andrew Greenlaugh Johnson. :’)

Absolutely. This would still be an amazing run if it verified verbatim, but there's still time for things to trend just a little colder at 850. Bring that snow/ice line just a little farther south. The trend is, once again, our friend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

seems like you were already hoping that like 2 frames into the run

If I get 2 feet of snow and Jesse get's 1/2" I will be disappointed. 

[paulb/eugene]

Willamette Valley will be a huge mess.  In terms of overall impact it looks to me that Albany to Portland overall the worst.  Could be a scenario like Jan 1980 with ice in southern metro areas and hefty snow amounts Farther north.  Since the ground is not frozen I do not think ice will be a big problem on roads in the south valley to begin with.  However both the GEM and euro are showing ice accumulations without precedent locally .  Power outages !

[snow_wizard]

Temps freezing or below through the day Saturday.  Looks like Portland is getting close to being safe now.

[Bryant]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel bad for Randy and Bryant. 

Can't tell how sarcastic you're being, but you anyway

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Willamette Valley will be a huge mess.  In terms of overall impact it looks to me that Albany to Portland overall the worst.  Could be a scenario like Jan 1980 with ice in southern metro areas and hefty snow amounts Farther north.  Since the ground is not frozen I do not think ice will be a big problem on roads in the south valley to begin with.  However both the GEM and euro are showing ice accumulations without precedent locally .  Power outages !

Someone posted this in Rob's excellent FB group. 

[Timmy]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel bad for Randy and Bryant. 

Their spot is a 100x better place than TWL

[Skagit Weather]

Just give me a little bit of accumulating snow on any of these days 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

4-6c colder at 850mb than 00z by Friday night for Western WA.

And a way stronger cold pool.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Willamette Valley will be a huge mess.  In terms of overall impact it looks to me that Albany to Portland overall the worst.  Could be a scenario like Jan 1980 with ice in southern metro areas and hefty snow amounts Farther north.  Since the ground is not frozen I do not think ice will be a big problem on roads in the south valley to begin with.  However both the GEM and euro are showing ice accumulations without precedent locally .  Power outages !

Yes...a major ice storm looks very possible south of Portland.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Surprised the NWS for Portland hasn't issued a warning yet. They always seem to be really early with it.

[Timmy]

Just now, iFred said:

Go troll there.

Trust me he is already 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, iFred said:

Go troll there.

I have to much respect for Rob. And Jesse is not allowed in his group. 

[paulb/eugene]

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Can't tell how sarcastic you're being, but you anyway

It looks like you get snow with the Arctic front on Wednesday.  Anything can still happen as you know.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Temps freezing or below through the day Saturday.  Looks like Portland is getting close to being safe now.

I wouldn’t feel 100% safe yet in Portland but this is definitely a big boost to their chances as well as ours up this way. Looks like we stay below freezing in western WA from Thursday all the way to Sunday on this run! Looks like a bit of snow late this week then dry and cold for a couple days after that...probably will be more snow or an overrunning event following early next week on this run as well. Very solid run. 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Kinda reminds me of January 1980.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It looks like you get snow with the Arctic front on Wednesday.  Anything can still happen as you know.

We’ve definitely seen Arctic fronts over perform before. Very hard to predict.

[Kolk1604]

4 AM Monday. Temps stay below 35. Can we get some more arctic air please?

 

[Esquimalt]

It’ll trend north

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another great image from Rob's group. This was shared by one of our esteemed members here. Looks like 1-2" of sleet here. Interesting. 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Surprised the NWS for Portland hasn't issued a warning yet. They always seem to be really early with it.

They usually wait for model agreement. Up until now the Euro has kinda left PDX alone. 

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, Esquimalt said:

It’ll trend north

then south again

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

4 AM Monday. Temps stay below 35. Can we get some more arctic air please?

 

Looks like an overrunning event to end things a week from today. I’d be pretty happy with this 5 day stretch of snow and cold...would be very surprised to see it go on past next Monday. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Temps freezing or below through the day Saturday.  Looks like Portland is getting close to being safe now.

I'm cautiously optimistic. But glad to see the North trend stop so more Arctic air can spill into Oregon.

[mtep]

20 minutes ago, Bryant said:

These models really don't want to include Whatcom County in on the fun

Are you in Glenhaven? I bet you guys will do well. I like driving through that area when there's been a snow

[snow_wizard]

Given the change on the handling of the PV lobe on this run it wouldn't shock me to see future runs trend colder and more suppressed.  At any rate we're going to get some winter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

They usually wait for model agreement. Up until now the Euro has kinda left PDX alone. 

IK that lol. They have been really quick with some of their forecasts in past years and it blew back on them. 

[Winterdog]

Glad to see a good turnaround in the Euro.  I prefer the colder GFS solution but things look better than last night.  It looks like a messy overrunning up here on Sunday/Monday is what we will get with a warmup.  Here's rooting for the GFS.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

It’ll trend north

Doesn’t look like the odds are great for a big north trend. Things actually just trended a bit south by the looks of it. Wouldn’t be surprised if your guys best shot was this upcoming weekend while it’s raining down south and there’s big snow up north for a couple days...kind of like the end of February 2019. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Going to be a lot of free firewood. The EURO gives us more sleet than ZR. ZR is not super common here, but January 2004 closed the South Falls loop below lower South Falls for about a year due to trees across the trail. 

[Jesse]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have to much respect for Rob. And Jesse is not allowed in his group. 

I’m sure Rob would welcum me with open arms Andrew. I learned not to mix Facebook friends and weather fiends a looooong time ago though

[Requiem]

Certainly a pretty nasty overrunning event-- windy, snowy, icy. 

[Bryant]

3 minutes ago, mtep said:

Are you in Glenhaven? I bet you guys will do well. I like driving through that area when there's been a snow

Lived there for a few years and was impressed with how well that location performed. I'm in north Bellingham now however 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I’m sure Rob would welcum me with open arms Andrew. I learned not to mix Facebook friends and weather friends a looooong time ago though

Maybe I am confusing it with the other group. 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe I am confusing it with the other group. 

The F*ck Mark Nelsen group? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Big league cold in BC.  Currently 18 in Lytton, -25 in Prince George, -31 at Fort Nelson, and Watson Lake (just barely into the Yukon) is currently a toasty -50.

Going to get really cold in Bellingham soon!

Meh, 18˚F really isn’t all that cold for Lytton. Needs to get down around zero there for it to get into the lower teens here.