Winterdog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 What's weird is the 850's are still warmer on next Sunday than they are right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Austin Wright said: Holy schnickes. 00z Euro absolutely buries everyone from Tacoma to PDX. Would prefer it a touch cooler, but not a bad run for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'm ready to buy off on a big snow event after seeing the ECMWF and UKMET both go bonkers on this run. The ECMWF pulls off a miracle by not moving that second low inland before it dies off the south WA Coast. Amazing run from PDX north. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: By Sunday morning, the wealth has been spread to many. Sometimes models tend to underplay totals. Wonder if these will be higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ack, the Olympics prevent those from Tacoma northward from seeing pepto snowfall totals. Still very decent. Just wish there was more of a SW component to it. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 00z taking care of our friends from BC this round too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: By Sunday morning, the wealth has been spread to many. What does the kuchera look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'm real cautious I don't trust the surge of arctic air with the arctic trough elongating north of the Canadian border. We never want to see that. I was hoping it would have been more like the GFS/NAM further south with the trough and PV lobe before sliding southeast over us. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hopefully the warming trend stops. This isn't even looking that impressive for cold anymore. 6 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'll be happy with 3 inches of snow. I'm glad to see Seattle and PDX get the big totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, RentonHillTC said: 00z taking care of our friends from BC this round too This reminds me of February 2017 so much 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm real cautious I don't trust the surge of arctic air with the arctic trough elongating north of the Canadian border. We never want to see that. I was hoping it would have been more like the GFS/NAM further south with the trough and PV lobe before sliding southeast over us. Very wise words of caution. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'm ready to buy off on a big snow event after seeing the ECMWF and UKMET both go bonkers on this run. The ECMWF pulls off a miracle by not moving that second low inland before it dies off the south WA Coast. Amazing run from PDX north. Very tough to deliver that much snow to PDX and SEA simultaneously. Has just the right balance to do it. Hopefully verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: This reminds me of February 2017 so much It’s EXACTLY the same. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Coldest 850's -8 on this run and that is north of Seattle and lasts for a day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Hopefully the warming trend stops. This isn't even looking that impressive for cold anymore. Yeah, it's snowier up here but at the cost of truly Arctic air. I was really looking forward to sub-freezing highs perhaps. 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Bottom line.... this is a deformation snow event. And the ECMWF is just way better at resolving complicated scenarios like this with moisture interacting with a sharp temperature boundary. 4 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Acer said: Coldest 850's -8 on this run and that is north of Seattle and lasts for a day. Wasn't the GFS like -15C for SEA? 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Yeah, it's snowier up here but at the cost of truly Arctic air. I was really looking forward to sub-freezing highs perhaps. There's always hope for a compromise with the UKMET and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: This reminds me of February 2017 so much That is a totally different pattern. Look at that river of moisture coming from the south west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Still looks good for PDX north is the main takeaway from tonight’s runs. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm real cautious I don't trust the surge of arctic air with the arctic trough elongating north of the Canadian border. We never want to see that. I was hoping it would have been more like the GFS/NAM further south with the trough and PV lobe before sliding southeast over us. Yeah, was hoping to see this run a little more aggressive there. Really don't want to see things water down any further the next 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Bottom line.... this is a deformation snow event. And the ECMWF is just way better at resolving complicated scenarios like this with moisture interacting with a sharp temperature boundary. How do you think we'll do up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wasn't the GFS like -15C for SEA? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Man... Tigard and Beaverton are literally right on the line between getting dumped with snow and having lots of sleet/ZR mixed in on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Day 7 looks like another snow event on euro. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Esquimalt said: That is a totally different pattern. Look at that river of moisture coming from the south west Yea different setup for sure. I was just referencing the cut off line right below Seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Still looks good for PDX north is the main takeaway from tonight’s runs. It's going to melt in a big hurry though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The amazing cold pool being depicted over Central and Eastern WA is what makes this thing work. Seepage through the passes / evaporative cooling and presto. Pretty how amazing it's progged to stay so cold with how terrible the 500mb pattern looks at one point. The flow going back to NW so quickly keeps the cold pool in place. Really perfect progression. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm real cautious I don't trust the surge of arctic air with the arctic trough elongating north of the Canadian border. We never want to see that. I was hoping it would have been more like the GFS/NAM further south with the trough and PV lobe before sliding southeast over us. Agree on the caution but what surge? The ECMWF isn't really cold compared to the other models. The cold push isn't very impressive by comparison. What I really dislike on the euro for PDX is the really marginal 850mb temps. The 0c line sits right over us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: This reminds me of February 2017 so much An notification came up on my google photos reminding me that it looked like this around this on Feb 9, 2017, perhaps the whole region will look like this by Feb 13, 2021: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Acer said: It's going to melt in a big hurry though Massive difference in snow depth between hour 144 and 168. Warm rain comes in and washes all that beautiful snow away. Then again the models can't even figure out what's going to happen in 72 hours. How much confidence can we really have in 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Acer said: It's going to melt in a big hurry though We dont know that yet still...this obviously isn’t resolved yet. I’m still liking our odds here in western WA. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Ack, the Olympics prevent those from Tacoma northward from seeing pepto snowfall totals. Still very decent. Just wish there was more of a SW component to it. No we don't want that. A SW component would make it turn to rain. The lower totals in Puget Sound are from the dry east winds. Looks great to me. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, nwsnow said: Agree on the caution but what surge? The ECMWF isn't really cold compared to the other models. The cold push isn't very impressive by comparison. What I really dislike on the euro for PDX is the really marginal 850mb temps. The 0c line sits right over us. Arctic air surging down into the Columbia Basin and into the Gorge. -13c to -15c. Need that to continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Thank goodness portland is next to a nice funnel of colder air. Won’t work otherwise. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 What does the detailed map look like for 168hrs? We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Part of me wonders if being this late in the season means you have to sacrifice really cold temperatures for decent snowfall in our region. Maybe highs in the mid-thirties are all a part of the deal. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, nwsnow said: Agree on the caution but what surge? The ECMWF isn't really cold compared to the other models. The cold push isn't very impressive by comparison. What I really dislike on the euro for PDX is the really marginal 850mb temps. The 0c line sits right over us. The cold east of the Cascades is what does the trick. It's very intense during the period in question. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Still shows several days of snowfall and a couple sub freezing highs. Sure it’s not mid 20s and snowing but it’s still a pretty d*mn good run. This still isn’t resolved yet probably will be more changes. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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