January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

What is this ducks talk? Who is it

Oregon quackers!

 

How does the 0z look?

[BLI snowman]

You know, this is the only place that would be kind of funny. 

 

Yeah... 

[FroYoBro]

Ouch. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z GFS.. Meh! Next run

[richard mann]

-
Somewhat surprising, not much news-wise showing online main "google" search, about the GFS upgrade. 
 
— With the delays transition wise, who knows at what hour, on the 14th.
 
Here accessible below are the only two mentions of the idea that I could find:  one a "Facebook" entry, and the other a note attached to a web resource acting as a general portal to the model. 
 
Somewhat, worthwhile checking.
 
https://www.facebook.com/XtremeWeatherForecast/posts/628438763950820 
 
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2015011212&fh=378&xpos=0&ypos=23

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 10

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011300/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00z .. Meh! Next run

 

The 0Z ECMWF looks pretty decent towards the end. In the lead up to that it looks like a lot more energy rides over the West Coast ridge rather than digging in to the west, the end result seems to be a pretty favorable signature for an upcoming Arctic blast. It's all about timing, we're best off if there's a lid on amplification until there's an opening in the Bering Sea. Haven't seen that happen for awhile now, things have been amplifying too early and we end up with "backdoor events".

[snow_wizard]

There is a definite signal for an Aleutian ridge by the end of the month on the 0z GFS ensemble.  It appears we will at least have a window of opportunity for something good while we are still in the heart of the winter.  Historically speaking late Jan / early Feb cold waves have a high chance of delivering high impact events.

[Gradient Keeper]

Appears ridge could possibly retrograde a bit. Note flow over BC may dig south-southwesterly over WA/OR, would like to see a more defined shortwave, but the ridge may back off to the west in response. Not ideal, but this is a helluva lot better than we're currently seeing.

[Gradient Keeper]

There is a definite signal for an Aleutian ridge by the end of the month on the 0z GFS ensemble.  It appears we will at least have a window of opportunity for something good while we are still in the heart of the winter.  Historically speaking late Jan / early Feb cold waves have a high chance of delivering high impact events.

Agreed

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian ensemble also shows rising heights over the Aleutians later in the month.  I'm betting the models will zero in in something good in the next few days.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Appears ridge could possibly retrograde a bit. Note flow over BC may dig south-southwesterly over WA/OR, would like to see a more defined shortwave, but the ridge may back off to the west in response. Not ideal, but this is a helluva lot better than we're currently seeing.

 

Yep, if it that were to verify verbatim the "Siberian High" that you can seen building in from the north in that last frame would solidify it and the rest would likely fall into place shortly thereafter. With the low pressure system over the NW Hudson Bay gradients would be very favorable for delivering Arctic air to the PNW, wouldn't be difficult for a shortwave to form out of that. It's one run but in the context of other recent runs this is a positive sign for something toward the end of the month

[Skagit Weather]

I am doing a little research on general precipitation trends around the sound based on regional geography and I was wondering what are the best websites for monthly and annual precipitation stats for stations around the sound. Are there other networks other than the COOP network that have easily accessible annual precipitation totals for local weather stations? I have gotten everything I could from the Western Regional Climate Center website, but I was wondering if there was a similar network with a long reporting history that I could add to my data.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah because beating FSU 59-20 and getting to the title game mean nothing. LOL

 

Great season, great memories, just fell a little short again. I'll take 2 Rose Bowl and a Fiesta Bowl wins in the past 4 years...

 

As Taylor Swift once said, the haters gonna hate, and I'll follow her lead and "shake it off."

[jaya]

I am doing a little research on general precipitation trends around the sound based on regional geography and I was wondering what are the best websites for monthly and annual precipitation stats for stations around the sound. Are there other networks other than the COOP network that have easily accessible annual precipitation totals for local weather stations? I have gotten everything I could from the Western Regional Climate Center website, but I was wondering if there was a similar network with a long reporting history that I could add to my data.

Western Region Climate Site is the best place.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
6z GFS is running
Next up....
12z GFS in 5 hours 38 minutes
12z GEM in 6 hours 58 minutes
12z ECMWF in 8 hours 8 minutes

[Dan the Weatherman]

00z ECMWF Day 10

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011300/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

I'm so sick of seeing that stupid ridge off the West Coast that I could scream!

[richard mann]

.. Pretty rough. 

 

— I'm going with, with the distance out where looking at this one depicted, .. it may just not be what actually results. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Much like winter in the western lowlands in January, the Ducks were full of promise but ultimately a bust with all the best action back east.

 

It hurts, but is true.

[Tyler Mode]

Surprisingly cool this morning at 31 degrees.  Beautiful sunny skies too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprisingly cool this morning at 31 degrees.  Beautiful sunny skies too.

 

Not a bad morning. Driving home from watching the game last night around 11pm it was incredibly warm in Salem, 49 degrees, so I was surprised by the frost when I woke up this morning, and that even down in the valley it was in the mid-30s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS looks like the Ducks defensive line.

[antipex]

Reading the forum this morning is like playing Duck, duck, goose. Only it's Duck, duck, weather.

 

Can we stick to weather please? There's other places to talk about sports. 

 

6z GFS shows little agreement in the long range and 12z operational isn't too interesting. I'm looking forward to tomorrow's GFS upgrade!

[bainbridgekid]

Day 10 on the Euro looks remarkably similar to the current pattern.

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20150113185539-28084-4451.gif

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20150113185632-5023-1819.gif

[HighlandExperience]

Day 10 on the Euro looks remarkably similar to the current pattern.

 

 

Pretty depressing. January is turning out to be a rather bland month.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, a trio of really ugly 12z runs today....

[Phil]

Pretty depressing. January is turning out to be a rather bland month.

Month to date..email fwd from WSI. Pretty much coast to coast cold, as expected:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/z4ZgxG/800.jpg

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The 12z GFS looks like the Ducks defensive line.

Did it suck? 

[HighlandExperience]

Month to date..email fwd from WSI. Pretty much coast to coast cold, as expected:

 

 

 

Looks weak on the west coast.

[GHweatherChris]

Month to date..email fwd from WSI. Pretty much coast to coast cold, as expected:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/z4ZgxG/800.jpg

I didn't know that just east of the cascades is where the west coast started, silly me.

[Deweydog]

Pretty depressing. January is turning out to be a rather bland month.

Gonna be a quiet month.

[Deweydog]

Meanwhile, it's quite delightful out.

[DareDuck]

Meanwhile, it's quite delightful out.

 

Not in the chimney that is Eugene. Gloomy day after a gloomy night. Going to go for a drive along the McKenzie to see some sun. So glad I'll be moving to Bend in a few weeks, sick of seeing sun everywhere else while stuck under an inversion. 

[BLI snowman]

Month to date..email fwd from WSI. Pretty much coast to coast cold, as expected:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/z4ZgxG/800.jpg

 

Not really. West looks to have another warm January, that's a solid 1/3 of the country.

[Deweydog]

Month to date..email fwd from WSI. Pretty much coast to coast cold, as expected:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/z4ZgxG/800.jpg

Hmmmm... no. You swung and missed. No shame in it, but own it.

[Jesse]

Into the low 50s at PDX after a freeze this morning. It can't even fake cold right this winter.

[HighlandExperience]

Into the low 50s at PDX after a freeze this morning. It can't even fake cold right this winter.

 

Feels like Spring.

[MossMan]

It snowed today!!!!

 

At least it did on my weekly drive to Eastern Wa. I ran into some light snow and 33 degrees between Cle Elum and Easton. With a dismal January like we are having I will take whatever I can get!

 

I am still hopeful for the first part of February.  

[Dan the Weatherman]

Month to date..email fwd from WSI. Pretty much coast to coast cold, as expected:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/z4ZgxG/800.jpg

I wouldn't quite call that coast to coast cold since the West Coast itself wasn't cold, and portions of the Desert SW were warmer than normal.

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe Phil meant the gulf coast to east coast has seen coast to coast cold.